Seats rated as Toss-Ups

Our forecast model classifies seats in to four categories:

  • Safe seats are very unlikely to be won by another party. Seats are considered safe if the model thinks they will be won by the same party at least 90% of the time.
  • It is improbable that a likely seat is won by another party. Seats are considered likely if the model thinks they will be won by the same party at least 80% of the time.
  • Seats that lean to one party may be won by another party. Seats are considered to lean to one party if the model thinks they will be won by the same party at least 70% of the time (or 60% of the time if three parties win 10% of the vote).
  • All other seats are described as toss-ups.

The seats currently rated as a toss-up show where the battle lines are currently drawn. The tables below show which parties are competing to win each of the seats we currently forecast as a toss-up. Some seats are two way fights whilst others feature three parties.

East Midlands

ConstituencyCountyNotional Winner 2019Leading PartySecond PartyThird Party
Amber ValleyDerbyshireCONCONLABNA
Derbyshire DalesDerbyshireCONLABCONNA
South DerbyshireDerbyshireCONLABCONNA
Mid LeicestershireLeicestershireCONCONLABNA
North West LeicestershireLeicestershireCONCONLABNA
KetteringNorthamptonshireCONLABCONNA
Wellingborough and RushdenNorthamptonshireCONLABCONNA
MansfieldNottinghamshireCONLABCONNA

East of England

ConstituencyCountyNotional Winner 2019Leading PartySecond PartyThird Party
North West CambridgeshireCambridgeshireCONCONLABNA
St Neots and Mid CambridgeshireCambridgeshireCONLABCONNA
ChelmsfordEssexCONCONLABLIB
HarlowEssexCONLABCONNA
Broadland and FakenhamNorfolkCONCONLABNA
Suffolk CoastalSuffolkCONCONLABNA

London

ConstituencyCountyNotional Winner 2019Leading PartySecond PartyThird Party

North East England

ConstituencyCountyNotional Winner 2019Leading PartySecond PartyThird Party

North West England

ConstituencyCountyNotional Winner 2019Leading PartySecond PartyThird Party
CongletonCheshireCONCONLABNA
TattonCheshireCONLABCONNA

South East England

ConstituencyCountyNotional Winner 2019Leading PartySecond PartyThird Party
NewburyBerkshireCONLIBCONNA
Reading West and Mid BerkshireBerkshireCONLABCONNA
WindsorBerkshireCONCONLABNA
WokinghamBerkshireCONCONLIBNA
AldershotHampshireCONLABCONNA
Portsmouth NorthHampshireCONLABCONNA
Isle of Wight EastIsle of WightCONLABCONNA
AshfordKentCONCONLABNA
Bicester and WoodstockOxfordshireCONCONLABLIB
Didcot and WantageOxfordshireCONLIBLABCON
Henley and ThameOxfordshireCONLIBCONNA
Epsom and EwellSurreyCONCONLABNA
Runnymede and WeybridgeSurreyCONCONLABNA
SpelthorneSurreyCONCONLABNA
WokingSurreyCONLIBLABCON

South West England

ConstituencyCountyNotional Winner 2019Leading PartySecond PartyThird Party
South DevonDevonCONCONLABLIB
South DorsetDorsetCONLABCONNA
West DorsetDorsetCONLIBCONNA
BridgwaterSomersetCONCONLABNA
SalisburyWiltshireCONCONLABNA
South West WiltshireWiltshireCONCONLABNA

West Midlands

ConstituencyCountyNotional Winner 2019Leading PartySecond PartyThird Party
Staffordshire MoorlandsStaffordshireCONCONLABNA
Sutton ColdfieldWest MidlandsCONCONLABNA

Yorkshire and the Humber

ConstituencyCountyNotional Winner 2019Leading PartySecond PartyThird Party
Beverley and HoldernessEast Riding of YorkshireCONCONLABNA

Northern Ireland

ConstituencyCountyNotional Winner 2019Leading PartySecond PartyThird Party
Fermanagh and South TyroneFermanaghSFASFAUUPNA

Scotland

ConstituencyCountyNotional Winner 2019Leading PartySecond PartyThird Party
Ayr, Carrick and CumnockAyrshireSNPLABSNPCON
Central AyrshireAyrshireSNPSNPLABNA
Kilmarnock and LoudounAyrshireSNPSNPLABNA
Dumfries and GallowayDumfries and GallowayCONCONSNPNA
Mid DunbartonshireDunbartonshireSNPLIBLABNA
West Aberdeenshire and KincardineGrampianCONCONSNPNA
Caithness, Sutherland and Easter RossHighlands and IslandsSNPLIBSNPNA
Moray West, Nairn and StrathspeyHighlands and IslandsSNPSNPCONNA
Edinburgh South WestLothianSNPSNPLABNA
Perth and Kinross-shirePerthshireSNPSNPCONNA
East RenfrewshireRenfrewshireSNPSNPLABNA
Dundee CentralTaysideSNPSNPLABNA

Wales

ConstituencyCountyNotional Winner 2019Leading PartySecond PartyThird Party
CaerfyrddinDyfedCONPLCLABNA
MonmouthshireGwentCONCONLABNA