Nowcast Map

Our nowcast takes the latest polls and simulates the election as if it were tomorrow. It takes account of potential errors in the polls and variation in swing across the country. It makes no attempt to estimate candidate effects (such as incumbency or scandal).

The nowcast tries to answer the question: “If the polls do not change before the election, what would be the result?”

We classify seats in to four categories:

  • Safe seats are very unlikely to be won by another party. Seats are considered safe if the model thinks they will be won by the same party at least 90% of the time.
  • It is improbable that a likely seat is won by another party. Seats are considered likely if the model thinks they will be won by the same party at least 80% of the time.
  • Seats that lean to one party may be won by another party. Seats are considered to lean to one party if the model thinks they will be won by the same party at least 70% of the time (or 60% of the time if three parties win 10% of the vote).
  • All other seats are described as toss-ups.
PartyToss-UpLeanLikelySafeTotal
Labour945320374
Conservative206588173
Liberal Democrats381728
Sinn Féin1157
DUP426
SDLP22
Plaid Cymru1113
Alliance112
Green Party11
Speaker11
SNP3710
Ulster Unionist Party11
4242