North East England

North East England consists of the counties of Durham, Northumberland and Tyne & Wear . Politically it is solidly to the left of the country, Tyne & Wear has not returned a Tory MP since 1992. The more affluent rural parts of the region do regularly elect a handful of Conservatives.

The dominance of Labour has been pretty consistent since 1955, the region has not moved with the national trends. The peak in the Tory vote was in 1959 when they won 41% and 9 MPs. From that time until the end of the century their vote was on a steady decline. Their lowest point was in 1997 when they got just 19% and only 1 MP.

From the 1970’s until 2010, the Liberals/Liberal Democrats were able to win around 15% of the vote but could only translate that into one seat (Berwick Upon Tweed, Northumberland, NEE). At the end of the Conservative coalition in 2010 the Lib Dem vote, as elsewhere, collapsed and they lost their only seat.

The biggest change in electoral terms in recent years is the rise and fall of UKIP. After winning 3% of the vote in 2010 in North East England, they rose as high as 17% in 2015 before dropping to 4% in 2017 and then oblivion in 2019. The main beneficiaries of the drop in 2017 were Labour but this was more than reversed by Tory gains in 2019. The Conservatives climbed to 37% of the vote in 2019, their highest vote share since 1970 – they also gained five seats. The size of the Tory revival should not be overstated; Labour are still the dominant force in local and national elections in the North East of England. However, the region is starting to look more like the inverse of the East of England where the Conservatives dominate but Labour are able to compete in certain parts.

General Election Time Series

Seats Won in North East England 1955-2019

Share of the Vote Won in North East England 1955-2019

2019 General Election

Seats Won in North East England in 2019, by County

Share of the Vote Won in North East England in 2019, by County

Share of Seats Won in North East England in 2019, by County

Change in Vote Share and Seats Won in North East England in 2019, by County

Local Government Composition

Local Councils Held 1973-2023 in North East England

Local Council Seats Held 1973-2023 in North East England

Election Model Forecast for Next Election

ConstituencyCountyNotional Winner 2019Forecast WinnerClassificationForecast Party ChangeBattleground
Bishop AucklandDurhamCONLABSafe1Northern England
Blaydon and ConsettDurhamLABLABSafe0Northern England
Blyth and AshingtonNorthumberlandLABLABSafe0NA
Durham, City OfDurhamLABLABSafe0NA
Cramlington and KillingworthNorthumberlandLABLABSafe0Northern England
DarlingtonDurhamCONLABSafe1Northern England
Gateshead Central and WhickhamTyne and WearLABLABSafe0NA
HartlepoolDurhamLABLABSafe0Northern England
Houghton and Sunderland SouthTyne and WearLABLABSafe0Northern England
Jarrow and Gateshead EastTyne and WearLABLABSafe0NA
Newcastle upon Tyne Central and WestTyne and WearLABLABSafe0NA
Newcastle upon Tyne East and WallsendTyne and WearLABLABSafe0NA
Newcastle upon Tyne NorthTyne and WearLABLABSafe0NA
Newton Aycliffe and SpennymoorDurhamCONLABSafe1Northern England
North DurhamDurhamLABLABSafe0NA
North NorthumberlandNorthumberlandCONLABLean1NA
South ShieldsTyne and WearLABLABSafe0NA
Stockton NorthDurhamLABLABSafe0Northern England
Stockton WestDurhamCONLABSafe1NA
Sunderland CentralTyne and WearLABLABSafe0Northern England
TynemouthTyne and WearLABLABSafe0NA
Washington and Gateshead SouthTyne and WearLABLABSafe0NA

Abbreviations used in the table: CON = Conservative, LAB = Labour Party, LIB = Liberal Democrats, GRE = Green Party, UKI = UK Independence Party (UKIP), REF = Reform UK, SKR = Speaker