London

The capital is composed of 32 boroughs and its political geography is largely a picture of a red core surrounded by a blue (and sometimes orange) ring. Inner London boroughs tend to vote strongly for Labour, whilst the outer suburbs tend to be a better hunting ground for Tories. Tory prime minsters, Margeret Thatcher (Finchley, LON) and Boris Johnson (Uxbridge and South Ruislip) both represented Outer London suburban seats. Meanwhile, Labour prime minister Clement Atlee (Limehouse then Walthamstow West, LON) represented two Inner London seats.

Although London has been well to the left of the country as a whole in recent elections, this was not always the case. London swung with the nation from the mid-50s to the mid-80s. During this time, the party that would govern, always won the most votes in the capital. This streak ended in 1987, when Thatcher won the national vote by eleven points over Labour but lost the capital by one and half points. Since then the capital has move further left, the Tories went from 48 seats in 1992 to just 11 in 1997 thanks to boundary changes and an eleven point decline in their vote.

The decline of the London Conservatives was to the benefit of Labour but also the Liberal Democrats. They were able to pick up 6 seats in 1997 and hold them until 2015,  however governing with the Conservatives had left them deeply unpopular and they were all but wiped out.

The Conservative recovery of the late 2000s in local and general elections that occurred across the UK was not matched in London. A much more modest recovery saw them peak at 28 MPs, 32 percent of the vote ,14 boroughs and city hall under their control. From 2010 onwards, the conservative position weakened and Labour came to dominate in local, mayoral and general elections.

General Election Time Series

Seats Won in London 1955-2019

Share of the Vote Won in London 1955-2019

2019 General Election

Seats Won in London in 2019

Share of the Vote Won in London in 2019

Share of Seats Won in London in 2019

Change in Vote Share and Seats Won in London in 2019

Local Government Composition

Local Councils Held 1973-2023 in London

Local Council Seats Held 1973-2023 in London

Election Model Forecast for Next Election

ConstituencyCountyNotional Winner 2019Forecast WinnerClassificationForecast Party ChangeBattleground
BarkingGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
BatterseaGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
Beckenham and PengeGreater LondonLABLABSafe0Southern England
Bermondsey and Old SouthwarkGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
Bethnal Green and StepneyGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
Bexleyheath and CrayfordGreater LondonCONLABLean1NA
Brent EastGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
Brent WestGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
Brentford and IsleworthGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
Bromley and Biggin HillGreater LondonCONLABLikely1NA
Carshalton and WallingtonGreater LondonCONLIBSafe1Southern England
Chelsea and FulhamGreater LondonCONLABSafe1Southern England
Chingford and Woodford GreenGreater LondonCONLABSafe1Southern England
Chipping BarnetGreater LondonCONLABSafe1Southern England
Cities of London and WestminsterGreater LondonCONLABSafe1Southern England
Clapham and Brixton HillGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
Croydon EastGreater LondonLABLABSafe0Southern England
Croydon SouthGreater LondonCONLABLikely1NA
Croydon WestGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
Dagenham and RainhamGreater LondonLABLABSafe0Southern England
Dulwich and West NorwoodGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
Ealing Central and ActonGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
Ealing NorthGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
Ealing SouthallGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
East HamGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
Edmonton and Winchmore HillGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
Eltham and ChislehurstGreater LondonCONLABSafe1Southern England
Enfield NorthGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
Erith and ThamesmeadGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
Feltham and HestonGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
Finchley and Golders GreenGreater LondonCONLABLikely1Southern England
Greenwich and WoolwichGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
Hackney North and Stoke NewingtonGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
Hackney South and ShoreditchGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
Hammersmith and ChiswickGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
Hampstead and HighgateGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
Harrow EastGreater LondonCONLABSafe1Southern England
Harrow WestGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
Hayes and HarlingtonGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
HendonGreater LondonCONLABSafe1Southern England
Holborn and St PancrasGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
Hornchurch and UpminsterGreater LondonCONCONLikely0NA
Hornsey and Friern BarnetGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
Ilford NorthGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
Ilford SouthGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
Islington NorthGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
Islington South and FinsburyGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
Kensington and BayswaterGreater LondonLABLABSafe0Southern England
Kingston and SurbitonGreater LondonLIBLIBSafe0NA
Lewisham EastGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
Lewisham NorthGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
Lewisham West and East DulwichGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
Leyton and WansteadGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
Mitcham and MordenGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
Old Bexley and SidcupGreater LondonCONCONLikely0NA
OrpingtonGreater LondonCONCONLikely0NA
PeckhamGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
Poplar and LimehouseGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
PutneyGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
Queen’s Park and Maida ValeGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
Richmond ParkGreater LondonLIBLIBSafe0NA
RomfordGreater LondonCONCONLean0NA
Ruislip, Northwood and PinnerGreater LondonCONLABLikely1NA
Southgate and Wood GreenGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
Stratford and BowGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
Streatham and Croydon NorthGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
Sutton and CheamGreater LondonCONLIBLean1Southern England
TootingGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
TottenhamGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
TwickenhamGreater LondonLIBLIBSafe0NA
Uxbridge and South RuislipGreater LondonCONLABSafe1Southern England
Vauxhall and Camberwell GreenGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
WalthamstowGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
West Ham and BecktonGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
WimbledonGreater LondonCONLIBLikely1Southern England

Abbreviations used in the table: CON = Conservative, LAB = Labour Party, LIB = Liberal Democrats, GRE = Green Party, IND = Independent, UKI = UK Independence Party (UKIP), REF = Reform UK