London
The capital is composed of 32 boroughs and its political geography is largely a picture of a red core surrounded by a blue (and sometimes orange) ring. Inner London boroughs tend to vote strongly for Labour, whilst the outer suburbs tend to be a better hunting ground for Tories. Tory prime minsters, Margeret Thatcher (Finchley, LON) and Boris Johnson (Uxbridge and South Ruislip) both represented Outer London suburban seats. Meanwhile, Labour prime minister Clement Atlee (Limehouse then Walthamstow West, LON) represented two Inner London seats.
Although London has been well to the left of the country as a whole in recent elections, this was not always the case. London swung with the nation from the mid-50s to the mid-80s. During this time, the party that would govern, always won the most votes in the capital. This streak ended in 1987, when Thatcher won the national vote by eleven points over Labour but lost the capital by one and half points. Since then the capital has move further left, the Tories went from 48 seats in 1992 to just 11 in 1997 thanks to boundary changes and an eleven point decline in their vote.
The decline of the London Conservatives was to the benefit of Labour but also the Liberal Democrats. They were able to pick up 6 seats in 1997 and hold them until 2015, however governing with the Conservatives had left them deeply unpopular and they were all but wiped out.
The Conservative recovery of the late 2000s in local and general elections that occurred across the UK was not matched in London. A much more modest recovery saw them peak at 28 MPs, 32 percent of the vote ,14 boroughs and city hall under their control. From 2010 onwards, the conservative position weakened and Labour came to dominate in local, mayoral and general elections.
General Election Time Series
Seats Won in London 1955-2019
Share of the Vote Won in London 1955-2019
2019 General Election
Seats Won in London in 2019
Share of the Vote Won in London in 2019
Share of Seats Won in London in 2019
Change in Vote Share and Seats Won in London in 2019
Local Government Composition
Local Councils Held 1973-2023 in London
Local Council Seats Held 1973-2023 in London
Election Model Forecast for Next Election
| Constituency | County | Notional Winner 2019 | Forecast Winner | Classification | Forecast Party Change | Battleground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barking | Greater London | LAB | LAB | Safe | 0 | NA |
| Battersea | Greater London | LAB | LAB | Safe | 0 | NA |
| Beckenham and Penge | Greater London | LAB | LAB | Safe | 0 | Southern England |
| Bermondsey and Old Southwark | Greater London | LAB | LAB | Safe | 0 | NA |
| Bethnal Green and Stepney | Greater London | LAB | LAB | Safe | 0 | NA |
| Bexleyheath and Crayford | Greater London | CON | Toss-Up | 0 | NA | |
| Brent East | Greater London | LAB | LAB | Safe | 0 | NA |
| Brent West | Greater London | LAB | LAB | Safe | 0 | NA |
| Brentford and Isleworth | Greater London | LAB | LAB | Safe | 0 | NA |
| Bromley and Biggin Hill | Greater London | CON | Toss-Up | 1 | NA | |
| Carshalton and Wallington | Greater London | CON | LIB | Safe | 1 | Southern England |
| Chelsea and Fulham | Greater London | CON | LAB | Safe | 1 | Southern England |
| Chingford and Woodford Green | Greater London | CON | LAB | Safe | 1 | Southern England |
| Chipping Barnet | Greater London | CON | LAB | Safe | 1 | Southern England |
| Cities of London and Westminster | Greater London | CON | LAB | Likely | 1 | Southern England |
| Clapham and Brixton Hill | Greater London | LAB | LAB | Safe | 0 | NA |
| Croydon East | Greater London | LAB | LAB | Safe | 0 | Southern England |
| Croydon South | Greater London | CON | LAB | Likely | 1 | NA |
| Croydon West | Greater London | LAB | LAB | Safe | 0 | NA |
| Dagenham and Rainham | Greater London | LAB | LAB | Safe | 0 | Southern England |
| Dulwich and West Norwood | Greater London | LAB | LAB | Safe | 0 | NA |
| Ealing Central and Acton | Greater London | LAB | LAB | Safe | 0 | NA |
| Ealing North | Greater London | LAB | LAB | Safe | 0 | NA |
| Ealing Southall | Greater London | LAB | LAB | Safe | 0 | NA |
| East Ham | Greater London | LAB | LAB | Safe | 0 | NA |
| Edmonton and Winchmore Hill | Greater London | LAB | LAB | Safe | 0 | NA |
| Eltham and Chislehurst | Greater London | CON | LAB | Safe | 1 | Southern England |
| Enfield North | Greater London | LAB | LAB | Safe | 0 | NA |
| Erith and Thamesmead | Greater London | LAB | LAB | Safe | 0 | NA |
| Feltham and Heston | Greater London | LAB | LAB | Safe | 0 | NA |
| Finchley and Golders Green | Greater London | CON | Toss-Up | 1 | Southern England | |
| Greenwich and Woolwich | Greater London | LAB | LAB | Safe | 0 | NA |
| Hackney North and Stoke Newington | Greater London | LAB | LAB | Safe | 0 | NA |
| Hackney South and Shoreditch | Greater London | LAB | LAB | Safe | 0 | NA |
| Hammersmith and Chiswick | Greater London | LAB | LAB | Safe | 0 | NA |
| Hampstead and Highgate | Greater London | LAB | LAB | Safe | 0 | NA |
| Harrow East | Greater London | CON | LAB | Safe | 1 | Southern England |
| Harrow West | Greater London | LAB | LAB | Safe | 0 | NA |
| Hayes and Harlington | Greater London | LAB | LAB | Safe | 0 | NA |
| Hendon | Greater London | CON | LAB | Safe | 1 | Southern England |
| Holborn and St Pancras | Greater London | LAB | LAB | Safe | 0 | NA |
| Hornchurch and Upminster | Greater London | CON | CON | Safe | 0 | NA |
| Hornsey and Friern Barnet | Greater London | LAB | LAB | Safe | 0 | NA |
| Ilford North | Greater London | LAB | LAB | Safe | 0 | NA |
| Ilford South | Greater London | LAB | LAB | Safe | 0 | NA |
| Islington North | Greater London | LAB | LAB | Safe | 0 | NA |
| Islington South and Finsbury | Greater London | LAB | LAB | Safe | 0 | NA |
| Kensington and Bayswater | Greater London | LAB | LAB | Safe | 0 | Southern England |
| Kingston and Surbiton | Greater London | LIB | LIB | Safe | 0 | NA |
| Lewisham East | Greater London | LAB | LAB | Safe | 0 | NA |
| Lewisham North | Greater London | LAB | LAB | Safe | 0 | NA |
| Lewisham West and East Dulwich | Greater London | LAB | LAB | Safe | 0 | NA |
| Leyton and Wanstead | Greater London | LAB | LAB | Safe | 0 | NA |
| Mitcham and Morden | Greater London | LAB | LAB | Safe | 0 | NA |
| Old Bexley and Sidcup | Greater London | CON | CON | Safe | 0 | NA |
| Orpington | Greater London | CON | CON | Safe | 0 | NA |
| Peckham | Greater London | LAB | LAB | Safe | 0 | NA |
| Poplar and Limehouse | Greater London | LAB | LAB | Safe | 0 | NA |
| Putney | Greater London | LAB | LAB | Safe | 0 | NA |
| Queen’s Park and Maida Vale | Greater London | LAB | LAB | Safe | 0 | NA |
| Richmond Park | Greater London | LIB | LIB | Safe | 0 | NA |
| Romford | Greater London | CON | CON | Likely | 0 | NA |
| Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner | Greater London | CON | Toss-Up | 1 | NA | |
| Southgate and Wood Green | Greater London | LAB | LAB | Safe | 0 | NA |
| Stratford and Bow | Greater London | LAB | LAB | Safe | 0 | NA |
| Streatham and Croydon North | Greater London | LAB | LAB | Safe | 0 | NA |
| Sutton and Cheam | Greater London | CON | LIB | Likely | 1 | Southern England |
| Tooting | Greater London | LAB | LAB | Safe | 0 | NA |
| Tottenham | Greater London | LAB | LAB | Safe | 0 | NA |
| Twickenham | Greater London | LIB | LIB | Safe | 0 | NA |
| Uxbridge and South Ruislip | Greater London | CON | LAB | Safe | 1 | Southern England |
| Vauxhall and Camberwell Green | Greater London | LAB | LAB | Safe | 0 | NA |
| Walthamstow | Greater London | LAB | LAB | Safe | 0 | NA |
| West Ham and Beckton | Greater London | LAB | LAB | Safe | 0 | NA |
| Wimbledon | Greater London | CON | LIB | Safe | 1 | Southern England |
Abbreviations used in the table: CON = Conservative, LAB = Labour Party, LIB = Liberal Democrats, GRE = Green Party, IND = Independent, UKI = UK Independence Party (UKIP), REF = Reform UK