Forecast Predictions

Our forecast uses the polls and notional results for the 2019 general election to predict the outcome in each of the 650 constituencies at the next election. It is exactly the same as the nowcast, but before simulating the election it tries to estimate how the polls will change between now and the election. It is built on the assumption that polls are impossible to predict and that each partyโ€™s vote share may go up or down before the election

The forecast is our prefered model for predicting the outcome of the election as it takes account of potential changes in the polls.

We classify seats in to four categories:

  • Safe seats are very unlikely to be won by another party. Seats are considered safe if the model thinks they will be won by the same party at least 90% of the time.
  • It is improbable that a likely seat is won by another party. Seats are considered likely if the model thinks they will be won by the same party at least 80% of the time.
  • Seats that lean to one party may be won by another party. Seats are considered to lean to one party if the model thinks they will be won by the same party at least 70% of the time (or 60% of the time if three parties win 10% of the vote).
  • All other seats are described as toss-ups.
PartyToss-UpLeanLikelySafeTotal
Labour1741305363
Conservative2455102181
Liberal Democrats2102133
Sinn Fรฉin156
DUP426
SDLP22
Plaid Cymru1113
Alliance112
Green Party11
Speaker11
SNP5712
Ulster Unionist Party11
3939

Battlegrounds

The battlegrounds in an election are defined by the extent of the swing between the parties. To begin with we can identify where the competitive seats are (those classified likely, lean or toss-up). We can also identify seats that are already considered safe for a different party (Safe Gains). This indicates a big swing against the incumbent party.

Battleground Seats by Region
Safe Gains

It is also important to consider the starting position from the previous elections. To that end, we have defined four battlegrounds that we think will decide who will govern after the next election. We have identified 175 seats in Southern England, the Midlands, Northern England and Scotland. They are mostly held by the Conservatives and SNP and many will need to won by Labour if they are to win the election.

Southern England

The Southern England Battleground is defined as all seats in London, the South East, South West and the East of England where the Tories had a majority of less than 10 000 or another partyhad a majority of less than 4 000. It includes 54 seats – 5 held by Labour and 49 by the Conservatives. This is our version of what is often called the Blue Wall. It includes seats in the suburbs of many southern cities such as London, Bristol and Southampton along with many covering towns in Londonโ€™s commuter belt such as Bedford, Crawley, Stevenage and Watford. Labour are the main challenger in most of these seats but there are a clutch of seats around London and along the south coast where the Liberal Democrats have a chance of gains The graph below shows the forecastโ€™s current prediction for the outcome in the Southern England Battleground:

The Midlands

The Midlands Battleground is defined as all seats in the Midlands where the Tories had a majority of less than 10 000 or another party had a majority of less than 4 000. It is composed of 30 seats – 6 held by Labour and 24 by the Conservatives. It includes many urban and suburban seats that went Tory in 2019 particularly around the cities of Birmingham, Nottingham and Stoke. It is a straight Conservative vs Labour battle. Reform (and its predecessors) have picked up substantial shares of the vote in the recent past but are unlikely to challenge the red-blue duopoly this time. The graph below shows the forecastโ€™s current prediction for the outcome in the Midlands Battleground:

Northern England

The Northern England Battleground is defined as all seats in North East England; North West England, Yorkshire and the Humber where the Tories had a majority of less than 10 000 or another party had a majority of less than 4 000. It includes 60 seats – 24 held by Labour and 36 by the Conservatives. This is our version of what is often called the Red Wall. It is mostly composed of suburban seats in three clusters – in South and West Yorkshire, Greater Manchester and on Tyneside. There are also a few seats covering towns in Cumbria, Lancashire and Cheshire. It is mostly a Conservative /Labour battleground but there are areas with a Liberal tradition (mostly in Cumbria). The graph below shows the forecastโ€™s current prediction for the outcome in the Northern England Battleground:

Scotland

The Scotland Battleground is defined as anywhere where the incumbent had a majority of less than 8ย 000. It includes 31 out of 57 Scottish seats โ€“ 6 held by the Conservatives, 2 by the Liberal Democrats and 23 by the SNP. It includes wide swathes of Scotland with some very different seats. Most of the Highlands and islands are in the battleground along with seats in rural parts of Aberdeenshire, Perthshire, Dumfries and Galloway. However, there are also four seats in Glasgow along with similarly urban parts of Lanarkshire and Renfrewshire. This all reflects the wide playing field on which Scottish politics has been fought in the last decade or so. The SNP, Labour, the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats all have hopes of winning seats depending on the dynamics of the election. Scotland is the most fluid and elastic of the battlegrounds โ€“ small changes in the vote share for each party could have profound consequences in terms of seats. The graph below shows the forecastโ€™s current prediction for the outcome in the Scotland Battleground:

Change in the Forecast

The forecast changes over time due to two key factors. Firstly, new polling is published and included in the model every few days. Secondly, the election gets closer, hence the time the polls have to change gets shorter. The graph below shows the forecast of the outcomes since the start of 2024:

Constituency Forecast Predictions

ConstituencyCountyNotional Winner 2019Forecast WinnerClassificationForecast Party ChangeBattleground
Amber ValleyDerbyshireCONCONLikely0NA
AshfieldNottinghamshireCONLABLikely1Midlands
BassetlawNottinghamshireCONLABLikely1NA
BolsoverDerbyshireCONLABSafe1Midlands
Boston and SkegnessLincolnshireCONCONSafe0NA
BroxtoweNottinghamshireCONLABSafe1Midlands
ChesterfieldDerbyshireLABLABSafe0Midlands
Corby and East NorthamptonshireNorthamptonshireCONLABSafe1Midlands
DaventryNorthamptonshireCONCONSafe0NA
Derby NorthDerbyshireCONLABSafe1Midlands
Derby SouthDerbyshireLABLABSafe0NA
Derbyshire DalesDerbyshireCONCONLikely0NA
ErewashDerbyshireCONLABSafe1NA
GainsboroughLincolnshireCONCONSafe0NA
GedlingNottinghamshireCONLABSafe1Midlands
Grantham and BourneLincolnshireCONCONSafe0NA
Harborough, Oadby and WigstonLeicestershireCONToss-Up1NA
High PeakDerbyshireCONLABSafe1Midlands
Hinckley and BosworthLeicestershireCONCONSafe0NA
KetteringNorthamptonshireCONCONLean0NA
Leicester EastLeicestershireLABLABSafe0NA
Leicester SouthLeicestershireLABLABSafe0NA
Leicester WestLeicestershireLABLABSafe0NA
LincolnLincolnshireCONLABSafe1Midlands
LoughboroughLeicestershireCONLABSafe1Midlands
Louth and HorncastleLincolnshireCONCONSafe0NA
MansfieldNottinghamshireCONCONLikely0NA
Melton and SystonLeicestershireCONCONLikely0NA
Mid DerbyshireDerbyshireCONToss-Up0NA
Mid LeicestershireLeicestershireCONCONLikely0NA
NewarkNottinghamshireCONCONLikely0NA
North East DerbyshireDerbyshireCONLABLikely1NA
North West LeicestershireLeicestershireCONCONLikely0NA
Northampton NorthNorthamptonshireCONLABSafe1Midlands
Northampton SouthNorthamptonshireCONLABLikely1NA
Nottingham EastNottinghamshireLABLABSafe0NA
Nottingham North and KimberleyNottinghamshireLABLABSafe0Midlands
Nottingham SouthNottinghamshireLABLABSafe0NA
RushcliffeNottinghamshireCONLABSafe1Midlands
Rutland and StamfordRutlandCONCONSafe0NA
Sherwood ForestNottinghamshireCONToss-Up0NA
Sleaford and North HykehamLincolnshireCONCONSafe0NA
South DerbyshireDerbyshireCONCONLikely0NA
South Holland and the DeepingsLincolnshireCONCONSafe0NA
South LeicestershireLeicestershireCONCONSafe0NA
South NorthamptonshireNorthamptonshireCONCONSafe0NA
Wellingborough and RushdenNorthamptonshireCONCONLean0NA
Basildon and BillericayEssexCONCONSafe0NA
BedfordBedfordshireLABLABSafe0Southern England
BraintreeEssexCONCONSafe0NA
Brentwood and OngarEssexCONCONSafe0NA
Broadland and FakenhamNorfolkCONCONLikely0NA
BroxbourneHertfordshireCONCONSafe0NA
Bury St Edmunds and StowmarketSuffolkCONCONSafe0NA
CambridgeCambridgeshireLABLABSafe0NA
Castle PointEssexCONCONSafe0NA
Central Suffolk and North IpswichSuffolkCONCONSafe0NA
ChelmsfordEssexCONCONLean0NA
ClactonEssexCONCONSafe0NA
ColchesterEssexCONLABLikely1Southern England
Dunstable and Leighton BuzzardBedfordshireCONToss-Up0NA
Ely and East CambridgeshireCambridgeshireCONToss-Up0NA
Epping ForestEssexCONCONSafe0NA
Great YarmouthNorfolkCONCONSafe0NA
HarlowEssexCONCONLikely0NA
Harpenden and BerkhamstedHertfordshireCONCONLikely0NA
Harwich and North EssexEssexCONCONLean0NA
Hemel HempsteadHertfordshireCONLABLean1NA
Hertford and StortfordHertfordshireCONToss-Up0NA
HertsmereHertfordshireCONCONSafe0NA
HitchinHertfordshireCONLABLikely1NA
HuntingdonCambridgeshireCONCONLikely0NA
IpswichSuffolkCONLABSafe1Southern England
LowestoftSuffolkCONToss-Up0NA
Luton NorthBedfordshireLABLABSafe0NA
Luton South and South BedfordshireBedfordshireLABLABSafe0NA
MaldonEssexCONCONSafe0NA
Mid BedfordshireBedfordshireCONCONSafe0NA
Mid NorfolkNorfolkCONCONSafe0NA
North BedfordshireBedfordshireCONCONSafe0NA
North East CambridgeshireCambridgeshireCONCONSafe0NA
North East HertfordshireHertfordshireCONCONLean0NA
North NorfolkNorfolkCONCONLikely0NA
North West CambridgeshireCambridgeshireCONCONLikely0NA
North West EssexEssexCONCONSafe0NA
North West NorfolkNorfolkCONCONSafe0NA
Norwich NorthNorfolkCONLABSafe1Southern England
Norwich SouthNorfolkLABLABSafe0NA
PeterboroughCambridgeshireCONLABSafe1Southern England
Rayleigh and WickfordEssexCONCONSafe0NA
South Basildon and East ThurrockEssexCONCONSafe0NA
South CambridgeshireCambridgeshireCONLIBSafe1Southern England
South NorfolkNorfolkCONCONLean0NA
South SuffolkSuffolkCONCONSafe0NA
South West HertfordshireHertfordshireCONCONSafe0NA
South West NorfolkNorfolkCONCONSafe0NA
Southend East and RochfordEssexCONLABLean1NA
Southend West and LeighEssexCONToss-Up1NA
St AlbansHertfordshireLIBLIBSafe0NA
St Neots and Mid CambridgeshireCambridgeshireCONToss-Up0NA
StevenageHertfordshireCONLABSafe1Southern England
Suffolk CoastalSuffolkCONCONLikely0NA
ThurrockEssexCONLABLean1NA
WatfordHertfordshireCONLABSafe1Southern England
Waveney ValleySuffolkCONCONSafe0NA
Welwyn HatfieldHertfordshireCONLABSafe1NA
West SuffolkSuffolkCONCONSafe0NA
WithamEssexCONCONSafe0NA
BarkingGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
BatterseaGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
Beckenham and PengeGreater LondonLABLABSafe0Southern England
Bermondsey and Old SouthwarkGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
Bethnal Green and StepneyGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
Bexleyheath and CrayfordGreater LondonCONToss-Up0NA
Brent EastGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
Brent WestGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
Brentford and IsleworthGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
Bromley and Biggin HillGreater LondonCONToss-Up1NA
Carshalton and WallingtonGreater LondonCONLIBSafe1Southern England
Chelsea and FulhamGreater LondonCONLABSafe1Southern England
Chingford and Woodford GreenGreater LondonCONLABSafe1Southern England
Chipping BarnetGreater LondonCONLABSafe1Southern England
Cities of London and WestminsterGreater LondonCONLABLikely1Southern England
Clapham and Brixton HillGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
Croydon EastGreater LondonLABLABSafe0Southern England
Croydon SouthGreater LondonCONLABLikely1NA
Croydon WestGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
Dagenham and RainhamGreater LondonLABLABSafe0Southern England
Dulwich and West NorwoodGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
Ealing Central and ActonGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
Ealing NorthGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
Ealing SouthallGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
East HamGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
Edmonton and Winchmore HillGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
Eltham and ChislehurstGreater LondonCONLABSafe1Southern England
Enfield NorthGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
Erith and ThamesmeadGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
Feltham and HestonGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
Finchley and Golders GreenGreater LondonCONToss-Up1Southern England
Greenwich and WoolwichGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
Hackney North and Stoke NewingtonGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
Hackney South and ShoreditchGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
Hammersmith and ChiswickGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
Hampstead and HighgateGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
Harrow EastGreater LondonCONLABSafe1Southern England
Harrow WestGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
Hayes and HarlingtonGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
HendonGreater LondonCONLABSafe1Southern England
Holborn and St PancrasGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
Hornchurch and UpminsterGreater LondonCONCONSafe0NA
Hornsey and Friern BarnetGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
Ilford NorthGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
Ilford SouthGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
Islington NorthGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
Islington South and FinsburyGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
Kensington and BayswaterGreater LondonLABLABSafe0Southern England
Kingston and SurbitonGreater LondonLIBLIBSafe0NA
Lewisham EastGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
Lewisham NorthGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
Lewisham West and East DulwichGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
Leyton and WansteadGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
Mitcham and MordenGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
Old Bexley and SidcupGreater LondonCONCONSafe0NA
OrpingtonGreater LondonCONCONSafe0NA
PeckhamGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
Poplar and LimehouseGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
PutneyGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
Queen’s Park and Maida ValeGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
Richmond ParkGreater LondonLIBLIBSafe0NA
RomfordGreater LondonCONCONLikely0NA
Ruislip, Northwood and PinnerGreater LondonCONToss-Up1NA
Southgate and Wood GreenGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
Stratford and BowGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
Streatham and Croydon NorthGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
Sutton and CheamGreater LondonCONLIBLikely1Southern England
TootingGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
TottenhamGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
TwickenhamGreater LondonLIBLIBSafe0NA
Uxbridge and South RuislipGreater LondonCONLABSafe1Southern England
Vauxhall and Camberwell GreenGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
WalthamstowGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
West Ham and BecktonGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
WimbledonGreater LondonCONLIBSafe1Southern England
Bishop AucklandDurhamCONLABSafe1Northern England
Blaydon and ConsettDurhamLABLABSafe0Northern England
Blyth and AshingtonNorthumberlandLABLABSafe0NA
Durham, City OfDurhamLABLABSafe0NA
Cramlington and KillingworthNorthumberlandLABLABSafe0Northern England
DarlingtonDurhamCONLABSafe1Northern England
EasingtonDurhamLABLABSafe0NA
Gateshead Central and WhickhamTyne and WearLABLABSafe0NA
HartlepoolDurhamLABLABLikely0Northern England
HexhamNorthumberlandCONLABLikely1NA
Houghton and Sunderland SouthTyne and WearLABLABSafe0Northern England
Jarrow and Gateshead EastTyne and WearLABLABSafe0NA
Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastNorth YorkshireLABLABSafe0NA
Middlesbrough South and East ClevelandNorth YorkshireCONLABLikely1NA
Newcastle upon Tyne Central and WestTyne and WearLABLABSafe0NA
Newcastle upon Tyne East and WallsendTyne and WearLABLABSafe0NA
Newcastle upon Tyne NorthTyne and WearLABLABSafe0NA
Newton Aycliffe and SpennymoorDurhamCONLABSafe1Northern England
North DurhamDurhamLABLABSafe0NA
North NorthumberlandNorthumberlandCONToss-Up0NA
RedcarNorth YorkshireCONLABSafe1Northern England
South ShieldsTyne and WearLABLABSafe0NA
Stockton NorthDurhamLABLABSafe0Northern England
Stockton WestDurhamCONLABLikely1NA
Sunderland CentralTyne and WearLABLABSafe0Northern England
TynemouthTyne and WearLABLABSafe0NA
Washington and Gateshead SouthTyne and WearLABLABSafe0NA
Altrincham and Sale WestGreater ManchesterCONLABSafe1Northern England
Ashton-under-LyneGreater ManchesterLABLABSafe0NA
Barrow and FurnessCumbriaCONLABSafe1Northern England
BirkenheadMerseysideLABLABSafe0NA
BlackburnLancashireLABLABSafe0NA
Blackley and Middleton SouthGreater ManchesterLABLABSafe0NA
Blackpool North and FleetwoodLancashireCONLABSafe1NA
Blackpool SouthLancashireCONLABSafe1Northern England
Bolton North EastGreater ManchesterCONLABSafe1Northern England
Bolton South and WalkdenGreater ManchesterLABLABSafe0NA
Bolton WestGreater ManchesterCONLABSafe1Northern England
BootleMerseysideLABLABSafe0NA
BurnleyLancashireCONLABSafe1Northern England
Bury NorthGreater ManchesterCONLABSafe1Northern England
Bury SouthGreater ManchesterCONLABSafe1Northern England
CarlisleCumbriaCONLABSafe1NA
CheadleGreater ManchesterCONLIBSafe1Northern England
Chester North and NestonCheshireLABLABSafe0NA
Chester South and EddisburyCheshireCONCONLikely0NA
ChorleyLancashireSKRSKRSafe0NA
CongletonCheshireCONCONLikely0NA
Crewe and NantwichCheshireCONLABSafe1Northern England
Ellesmere Port and BromboroughCheshireLABLABSafe0NA
FyldeLancashireCONCONLikely0NA
Gorton and DentonGreater ManchesterLABLABSafe0NA
Hazel GroveGreater ManchesterCONLIBSafe1Northern England
Heywood and Middleton NorthGreater ManchesterLABLABSafe0Northern England
HyndburnLancashireCONLABSafe1Northern England
KnowsleyMerseysideLABLABSafe0NA
Lancaster and WyreLancashireCONLABSafe1Northern England
Leigh and AthertonGreater ManchesterCONLABSafe1Northern England
Liverpool GarstonMerseysideLABLABSafe0NA
Liverpool RiversideMerseysideLABLABSafe0NA
Liverpool WaltonMerseysideLABLABSafe0NA
Liverpool WavertreeMerseysideLABLABSafe0NA
Liverpool West DerbyMerseysideLABLABSafe0NA
MacclesfieldCheshireCONLABSafe1NA
MakerfieldGreater ManchesterLABLABSafe0NA
Manchester CentralGreater ManchesterLABLABSafe0NA
Manchester RusholmeGreater ManchesterLABLABSafe0NA
Manchester WithingtonGreater ManchesterLABLABSafe0NA
Mid CheshireCheshireCONLABSafe1Northern England
Morecambe and LunesdaleLancashireCONLABLikely1NA
Oldham East and SaddleworthGreater ManchesterLABLABSafe0Northern England
Oldham West, Chadderton and RoytonGreater ManchesterLABLABSafe0NA
Pendle and ClitheroeLancashireCONLABLikely1NA
Penrith and SolwayCumbriaCONLABLikely1NA
PrestonLancashireLABLABSafe0NA
Ribble ValleyLancashireCONToss-Up0NA
RochdaleGreater ManchesterLABLABSafe0NA
Rossendale and DarwenLancashireCONLABSafe1Northern England
Runcorn and HelsbyCheshireLABLABSafe0NA
SalfordGreater ManchesterLABLABSafe0NA
Sefton CentralMerseysideLABLABSafe0NA
South RibbleLancashireCONLABSafe1Northern England
SouthportMerseysideCONLABSafe1Northern England
St Helens NorthMerseysideLABLABSafe0NA
St Helens South and WhistonMerseysideLABLABSafe0NA
Stalybridge and HydeGreater ManchesterLABLABSafe0Northern England
StockportGreater ManchesterLABLABSafe0NA
Stretford and UrmstonGreater ManchesterLABLABSafe0NA
TattonCheshireCONCONLikely0NA
WallaseyMerseysideLABLABSafe0NA
Warrington NorthCheshireLABLABSafe0Northern England
Warrington SouthCheshireLABLABSafe0Northern England
West LancashireLancashireLABLABSafe0NA
Westmorland and LonsdaleCumbriaCONLIBSafe1Northern England
Whitehaven and WorkingtonCumbriaCONLABSafe1Northern England
Widnes and HalewoodCheshireLABLABSafe0NA
WiganGreater ManchesterLABLABSafe0NA
Wirral WestMerseysideLABLABSafe0Northern England
Worsley and EcclesGreater ManchesterLABLABSafe0Northern England
Wythenshawe and Sale EastGreater ManchesterLABLABSafe0NA
AldershotHampshireCONCONLean0NA
Arundel and South DownsWest SussexCONCONSafe0NA
AshfordKentCONCONLikely0NA
AylesburyBuckinghamshireCONLABLean1NA
BanburyOxfordshireCONLABLean1NA
BasingstokeHampshireCONLABLikely1NA
BeaconsfieldBuckinghamshireCONCONSafe0NA
Bexhill and BattleEast SussexCONCONSafe0NA
Bicester and WoodstockOxfordshireCONCONLean0NA
Bognor Regis and LittlehamptonWest SussexCONCONSafe0NA
BracknellBerkshireCONToss-Up1NA
Brighton Kemptown and PeacehavenEast SussexLABLABSafe0NA
Brighton PavilionEast SussexGREGRESafe0NA
Buckingham and BletchleyBuckinghamshireCONLABLikely1NA
CanterburyKentLABLABSafe0Southern England
Chatham and AylesfordKentCONCONSafe0NA
Chesham and AmershamBuckinghamshireCONCONSafe0NA
ChichesterWest SussexCONCONSafe0NA
CrawleyWest SussexCONLABSafe1Southern England
DartfordKentCONToss-Up0NA
Didcot and WantageOxfordshireCONLIBLean1Southern England
Dorking and HorleySurreyCONLIBLikely1NA
Dover and DealKentCONLABLikely1NA
Earley and WoodleyBerkshireCONLABLikely1Southern England
East Grinstead and UckfieldEast SussexCONCONSafe0NA
East HampshireHampshireCONCONSafe0NA
East SurreySurreyCONCONSafe0NA
East ThanetKentCONLABSafe1Southern England
East Worthing and ShorehamWest SussexCONLABSafe1Southern England
EastbourneEast SussexCONLIBSafe1Southern England
EastleighHampshireCONLIBLikely1Southern England
Epsom and EwellSurreyCONCONLikely0NA
Esher and WaltonSurreyCONLIBSafe1Southern England
Fareham and WaterloovilleHampshireCONCONSafe0NA
Farnham and BordonHampshireCONCONLean0NA
Faversham and Mid KentKentCONCONSafe0NA
Folkestone and HytheKentCONToss-Up1NA
Gillingham and RainhamKentCONCONLean0NA
Godalming and AshSurreyCONLIBLikely1NA
GosportHampshireCONCONSafe0NA
GraveshamKentCONToss-Up0NA
GuildfordSurreyCONLIBSafe1Southern England
Hamble ValleyHampshireCONCONSafe0NA
Hastings and RyeEast SussexCONLABSafe1Southern England
HavantHampshireCONCONSafe0NA
Henley and ThameOxfordshireCONToss-Up1NA
Herne Bay and SandwichKentCONCONSafe0NA
HorshamWest SussexCONCONLikely0NA
Hove and PortsladeEast SussexLABLABSafe0NA
Isle of Wight EastIsle of WightCONCONLean0NA
Isle of Wight WestIsle of WightCONToss-Up0NA
LewesEast SussexCONLIBSafe1Southern England
MaidenheadBerkshireCONCONLikely0NA
Maidstone and MallingKentCONCONSafe0NA
Mid BuckinghamshireBuckinghamshireCONCONSafe0NA
Mid SussexWest SussexCONToss-Up0NA
Milton Keynes CentralBuckinghamshireCONLABSafe1Southern England
Milton Keynes NorthBuckinghamshireCONLABSafe1Southern England
New Forest EastHampshireCONCONSafe0NA
New Forest WestHampshireCONCONSafe0NA
NewburyBerkshireCONToss-Up1NA
North East HampshireHampshireCONCONSafe0NA
North West HampshireHampshireCONCONSafe0NA
Oxford EastOxfordshireLABLABSafe0NA
Oxford West and AbingdonOxfordshireLIBLIBSafe0NA
Portsmouth NorthHampshireCONCONLikely0NA
Portsmouth SouthHampshireLABLABSafe0NA
Reading CentralBerkshireLABLABSafe0NA
Reading West and Mid BerkshireBerkshireCONCONLean0NA
ReigateSurreyCONCONLikely0NA
Rochester and StroodKentCONToss-Up1NA
Romsey and Southampton NorthHampshireCONCONLikely0NA
Runnymede and WeybridgeSurreyCONCONLikely0NA
SevenoaksKentCONCONSafe0NA
Sittingbourne and SheppeyKentCONCONSafe0NA
SloughBerkshireLABLABSafe0NA
Southampton ItchenHampshireCONLABSafe1Southern England
Southampton TestHampshireLABLABSafe0NA
SpelthorneSurreyCONCONLikely0NA
Surrey HeathSurreyCONCONLikely0NA
Sussex WealdEast SussexCONCONSafe0NA
TonbridgeKentCONCONSafe0NA
Tunbridge WellsKentCONCONLean0NA
Weald of KentKentCONCONSafe0NA
WinchesterHampshireCONLIBSafe1Southern England
WindsorBerkshireCONCONLikely0NA
WitneyOxfordshireCONCONLikely0NA
WokingSurreyCONLIBLikely1Southern England
WokinghamBerkshireCONToss-Up1NA
Worthing WestWest SussexCONLABLikely1NA
WycombeBuckinghamshireCONLABSafe1Southern England
BathSomersetLIBLIBSafe0NA
Bournemouth EastDorsetCONLABSafe1Southern England
Bournemouth WestDorsetCONLABSafe1Southern England
BridgwaterSomersetCONCONLikely0NA
Bristol CentralBristolLABLABSafe0NA
Bristol EastBristolLABLABSafe0NA
Bristol North EastBristolLABLABSafe0NA
Bristol North WestBristolLABLABSafe0NA
Bristol SouthBristolLABLABSafe0NA
Camborne and RedruthCornwallCONLABSafe1Southern England
Central DevonDevonCONToss-Up1NA
CheltenhamGloucestershireCONLIBSafe1Southern England
ChippenhamWiltshireCONCONLean0NA
ChristchurchDorsetCONCONSafe0NA
East WiltshireWiltshireCONCONSafe0NA
ExeterDevonLABLABSafe0NA
Exmouth and Exeter EastDevonCONCONSafe0Southern England
Filton and Bradley StokeGloucestershireCONLABSafe1Southern England
Forest of DeanGloucestershireCONToss-Up0NA
Frome and East SomersetSomersetCONToss-Up1NA
Glastonbury and SomertonSomersetCONCONLean0NA
GloucesterGloucestershireCONLABSafe1Southern England
Honiton and SidmouthDevonCONCONSafe0NA
Melksham and DevizesWiltshireCONCONLikely0NA
Mid Dorset and North PooleDorsetCONCONLikely0NA
Newton AbbotDevonCONCONLikely0NA
North CornwallCornwallCONCONLikely0NA
North CotswoldsGloucestershireCONCONSafe0NA
North DevonDevonCONCONLean0NA
North DorsetDorsetCONCONSafe0NA
North East Somerset and HanhamSomersetCONLABLean1NA
North SomersetSomersetCONLABLean1NA
Plymouth Moor ViewDevonCONLABLean1NA
Plymouth Sutton and DevonportDevonLABLABSafe0NA
PooleDorsetCONCONLikely0NA
SalisburyWiltshireCONCONLikely0NA
South CotswoldsGloucestershireCONCONLikely0NA
South DevonDevonCONCONLean0NA
South DorsetDorsetCONCONLean0NA
South East CornwallCornwallCONCONLikely0NA
South West DevonDevonCONCONSafe0NA
South West WiltshireWiltshireCONCONLikely0NA
St Austell and NewquayCornwallCONLABLean1NA
St IvesCornwallCONLIBSafe1Southern England
StroudGloucestershireCONLABSafe1Southern England
Swindon NorthWiltshireCONLABLean1NA
Swindon SouthWiltshireCONLABSafe1Southern England
Taunton and WellingtonSomersetCONLIBLikely1Southern England
TewkesburyGloucestershireCONCONSafe0NA
Thornbury and YateGloucestershireCONCONLean0NA
Tiverton and MineheadSomersetCONCONSafe0NA
TorbayDevonCONCONSafe0NA
Torridge and TavistockDevonCONCONSafe0NA
Truro and FalmouthCornwallCONLABSafe1Southern England
Wells and Mendip HillsSomersetCONCONLean0NA
West DorsetDorsetCONLIBLean1NA
Weston-Super-MareSomersetCONLABLean1NA
YeovilSomersetCONCONLikely0NA
Aldridge-BrownhillsWest MidlandsCONCONSafe0NA
Birmingham EdgbastonWest MidlandsLABLABSafe0NA
Birmingham ErdingtonWest MidlandsLABLABSafe0NA
Birmingham Hall Green and MoseleyWest MidlandsLABLABSafe0NA
Birmingham Hodge Hill and Solihull NorthWest MidlandsLABLABSafe0NA
Birmingham LadywoodWest MidlandsLABLABSafe0NA
Birmingham NorthfieldWest MidlandsCONLABSafe1Midlands
Birmingham Perry BarrWest MidlandsLABLABSafe0NA
Birmingham Selly OakWest MidlandsLABLABSafe0NA
Birmingham YardleyWest MidlandsLABLABSafe0NA
BromsgroveWorcestershireCONCONSafe0NA
Burton and UttoxeterStaffordshireCONToss-Up1NA
Cannock ChaseStaffordshireCONCONSafe0NA
Coventry EastWest MidlandsLABLABSafe0NA
Coventry North WestWest MidlandsLABLABSafe0Midlands
Coventry SouthWest MidlandsLABLABSafe0Midlands
Droitwich and EveshamWorcestershireCONCONSafe0NA
DudleyWest MidlandsCONToss-Up0NA
HalesowenWest MidlandsCONLABLean1NA
Hereford and South HerefordshireHerefordshireCONCONSafe0NA
Kenilworth and SouthamWarwickshireCONCONLikely0NA
Kingswinford and South StaffordshireStaffordshireCONCONSafe0NA
LichfieldStaffordshireCONCONSafe0NA
Meriden and Solihull EastWest MidlandsCONCONSafe0NA
Newcastle-under-LymeStaffordshireCONLABSafe1Midlands
North HerefordshireHerefordshireCONCONSafe0NA
North ShropshireShropshireCONCONLikely0NA
North Warwickshire and BedworthWarwickshireCONCONLikely0NA
NuneatonWarwickshireCONLABLean1NA
RedditchWorcestershireCONCONLikely0NA
RugbyWarwickshireCONLABLikely1NA
ShrewsburyShropshireCONLABSafe1Midlands
SmethwickWest MidlandsLABLABSafe0NA
Solihull West and ShirleyWest MidlandsCONCONSafe0NA
South ShropshireShropshireCONCONSafe0NA
StaffordStaffordshireCONLABLikely1NA
Staffordshire MoorlandsStaffordshireCONCONLikely0NA
Stoke-on-Trent CentralStaffordshireCONLABSafe1Midlands
Stoke-on-Trent NorthStaffordshireCONLABSafe1Midlands
Stoke-on-Trent SouthStaffordshireCONCONLean0NA
Stone, Great Wyrley and PenkridgeStaffordshireCONCONSafe0NA
StourbridgeWest MidlandsCONCONLean0NA
Stratford-on-AvonWarwickshireCONCONSafe0NA
Sutton ColdfieldWest MidlandsCONCONLikely0NA
TamworthStaffordshireCONCONSafe0NA
TelfordShropshireCONLABLikely1NA
The WrekinShropshireCONCONSafe0NA
Tipton and WednesburyWest MidlandsCONLABSafe1Midlands
Walsall and BloxwichWest MidlandsCONLABSafe1Midlands
Warwick and LeamingtonWarwickshireLABLABSafe0Midlands
West BromwichWest MidlandsCONLABSafe1Midlands
West WorcestershireWorcestershireCONCONSafe0NA
Wolverhampton North EastWest MidlandsCONLABSafe1Midlands
Wolverhampton South EastWest MidlandsLABLABSafe0Midlands
Wolverhampton WestWest MidlandsCONLABSafe1Midlands
WorcesterWorcestershireCONLABSafe1Midlands
Wyre ForestWorcestershireCONCONSafe0NA
Barnsley NorthSouth YorkshireLABLABLean0NA
Barnsley SouthSouth YorkshireLABLABLikely0NA
Beverley and HoldernessEast Riding of YorkshireCONCONLikely0NA
Bradford EastWest YorkshireLABLABSafe0NA
Bradford SouthWest YorkshireLABLABSafe0Northern England
Bradford WestWest YorkshireLABLABSafe0NA
Bridlington and the WoldsEast Riding of YorkshireCONCONSafe0NA
Brigg and ImminghamLincolnshireCONCONSafe0NA
Calder ValleyWest YorkshireCONLABSafe1Northern England
Colne ValleyWest YorkshireCONLABSafe1Northern England
Dewsbury and BatleyWest YorkshireLABLABSafe0NA
Doncaster CentralSouth YorkshireLABLABSafe0Northern England
Doncaster East and the Isle of AxholmeSouth YorkshireCONLABLikely1NA
Doncaster NorthSouth YorkshireLABLABSafe0Northern England
Goole and PocklingtonEast Riding of YorkshireCONCONSafe0NA
Great Grimsby and CleethorpesLincolnshireCONLABLikely1Midlands
HalifaxWest YorkshireLABLABSafe0Northern England
Harrogate and KnaresboroughNorth YorkshireCONLIBLikely1Northern England
HuddersfieldWest YorkshireLABLABSafe0NA
Keighley and IlkleyWest YorkshireCONLABSafe1Northern England
Kingston upon Hull EastEast Riding of YorkshireLABLABSafe0Northern England
Kingston upon Hull North and CottinghamEast Riding of YorkshireLABLABSafe0NA
Kingston upon Hull West and HaltempriceEast Riding of YorkshireCONLABSafe1Northern England
Leeds Central and HeadingleyWest YorkshireLABLABSafe0NA
Leeds EastWest YorkshireLABLABSafe0Northern England
Leeds North EastWest YorkshireLABLABSafe0NA
Leeds North WestWest YorkshireCONLABSafe1Northern England
Leeds SouthWest YorkshireLABLABSafe0NA
Leeds South West and MorleyWest YorkshireCONLABSafe1Northern England
Leeds West and PudseyWest YorkshireLABLABSafe0NA
Normanton and HemsworthWest YorkshireLABLABSafe0Northern England
Ossett and Denby DaleWest YorkshireCONLABLikely1NA
Penistone and StocksbridgeSouth YorkshireCONLABSafe1Northern England
Pontefract, Castleford and KnottingleyWest YorkshireLABLABSafe0Northern England
Rawmarsh and ConisbroughSouth YorkshireLABLABSafe0Northern England
Richmond and NorthallertonNorth YorkshireCONCONSafe0NA
Rother ValleySouth YorkshireCONLABSafe1Northern England
RotherhamSouth YorkshireLABLABSafe0Northern England
Scarborough and WhitbyNorth YorkshireCONLABSafe1NA
ScunthorpeLincolnshireCONLABSafe1Midlands
SelbyNorth YorkshireCONLABLean1NA
Sheffield Brightside and HillsboroughSouth YorkshireLABLABSafe0NA
Sheffield CentralSouth YorkshireLABLABSafe0NA
Sheffield HallamSouth YorkshireLABLABSafe0Northern England
Sheffield HeeleySouth YorkshireLABLABSafe0NA
Sheffield South EastSouth YorkshireLABLABSafe0NA
ShipleyWest YorkshireCONLABSafe1Northern England
Skipton and RiponNorth YorkshireCONCONLikely0NA
Spen ValleyWest YorkshireCONLABSafe1Northern England
Thirsk and MaltonNorth YorkshireCONCONSafe0NA
Wakefield and RothwellWest YorkshireCONLABSafe1Northern England
Wetherby and EasingwoldWest YorkshireCONCONSafe0NA
York CentralNorth YorkshireLABLABSafe0NA
York OuterNorth YorkshireCONLABSafe1NA
Belfast EastAntrimDUPALLLikely1NA
Belfast NorthAntrimSFASFASafe0NA
Belfast South and Mid DownAntrimSDLSDLSafe0NA
Belfast WestAntrimSFASFASafe0NA
East AntrimAntrimDUPDUPLikely0NA
East LondonderryLondonderryDUPDUPSafe0NA
Fermanagh and South TyroneFermanaghSFAToss-Up1NA
FoyleLondonderrySDLSDLSafe0NA
Lagan ValleyAntrimDUPDUPLikely0NA
Mid UlsterTyroneSFASFASafe0NA
Newry and ArmaghArmaghSFASFASafe0NA
North AntrimAntrimDUPDUPSafe0NA
North DownDownALLALLSafe0NA
South AntrimAntrimDUPUUPLean1NA
South DownDownSFASFALikely0NA
StrangfordDownDUPDUPLikely0NA
Upper BannArmaghDUPDUPLikely0NA
West TyroneTyroneSFASFASafe0NA
Aberdeen NorthGrampianSNPSNPLikely0NA
Aberdeen SouthGrampianSNPSNPLean0Scotland
Aberdeenshire North and Moray EastGrampianCONCONLikely0Scotland
Airdrie and ShottsLanarkshireSNPLABSafe1Scotland
Alloa and GrangemouthStirlingshireSNPSNPLikely0NA
Angus and Perthshire GlensTaysideSNPSNPLikely0Scotland
Arbroath and Broughty FerryTaysideSNPSNPLikely0NA
Argyll, Bute and South LochaberHighlands and IslandsSNPSNPLean0Scotland
Ayr, Carrick and CumnockAyrshireSNPToss-Up0Scotland
Bathgate and LinlithgowLothianSNPLABLikely1NA
Berwickshire, Roxburgh and SelkirkBordersCONCONSafe0Scotland
Caithness, Sutherland and Easter RossHighlands and IslandsSNPLIBLikely1Scotland
Central AyrshireAyrshireSNPToss-Up0Scotland
Coatbridge and BellshillLanarkshireSNPLABSafe1Scotland
Cowdenbeath and KirkcaldyFifeSNPLABSafe1Scotland
Cumbernauld and KirkintillochDunbartonshireSNPLABLikely1NA
Dumfries and GallowayDumfries and GallowayCONCONLean0Scotland
Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and TweeddaleDumfries and GallowayCONCONLikely0Scotland
Dundee CentralTaysideSNPSNPLean0NA
Dunfermline and DollarFifeSNPLABLikely1NA
East Kilbride and StrathavenLanarkshireSNPLABLean1NA
East RenfrewshireRenfrewshireSNPToss-Up0Scotland
Edinburgh East and MusselburghLothianSNPLABLikely1NA
Edinburgh North and LeithLothianSNPLABLikely1NA
Edinburgh SouthLothianLABLABSafe0NA
Edinburgh South WestLothianSNPSNPLean0NA
Edinburgh WestLothianLIBLIBSafe0Scotland
FalkirkStirlingshireSNPSNPLikely0NA
Glasgow EastGlasgowSNPLABSafe1Scotland
Glasgow NorthGlasgowSNPLABSafe1Scotland
Glasgow North EastGlasgowSNPLABSafe1Scotland
Glasgow SouthGlasgowSNPLABLikely1NA
Glasgow South WestGlasgowSNPLABSafe1Scotland
Glasgow WestGlasgowSNPLABLikely1NA
Glenrothes and Mid FifeFifeSNPLABLikely1NA
Gordon and BuchanGrampianCONCONLikely0Scotland
Hamilton and Clyde ValleyLanarkshireSNPLABSafe1NA
Inverclyde and Renfrewshire WestRenfrewshireSNPLABLikely1NA
Inverness, Skye and West Ross-shireHighlands and IslandsSNPSNPLikely0NA
Kilmarnock and LoudounAyrshireSNPToss-Up0NA
LivingstonLothianSNPLABLean1NA
Lothian EastLothianSNPLABSafe1Scotland
Mid DunbartonshireDunbartonshireSNPLIBLikely1Scotland
MidlothianLothianSNPLABSafe1Scotland
Moray West, Nairn and StrathspeyHighlands and IslandsSNPToss-Up0Scotland
Motherwell, Wishaw and CarlukeLanarkshireSNPLABSafe1Scotland
Na h-Eileanan an IarHighlands and IslandsSNPLABSafe1Scotland
North Ayrshire and ArranAyrshireSNPSNPLean0NA
North East FifeFifeSNPLIBLikely1Scotland
Orkney and ShetlandHighlands and IslandsLIBLIBSafe0Scotland
Paisley and Renfrewshire NorthRenfrewshireSNPLABLikely1NA
Paisley and Renfrewshire SouthRenfrewshireSNPLABLikely1NA
Perth and Kinross-shirePerthshireSNPToss-Up0Scotland
RutherglenLanarkshireSNPLABSafe1Scotland
Stirling and StrathallanStirlingshireSNPSNPLikely0NA
West Aberdeenshire and KincardineGrampianCONCONLean0Scotland
West DunbartonshireDunbartonshireSNPLABLikely1NA
Aberafan MaestegWest GlamorganLABLABSafe0NA
Alyn and DeesideClwydLABLABSafe0NA
Bangor AberconwyGwyneddCONLABSafe1NA
Blaenau Gwent and RhymneyGwentLABLABSafe0NA
Brecon, Radnor and Cwm TawePowysCONToss-Up0NA
BridgendMid GlamorganCONLABSafe1NA
CaerfyrddinDyfedCONPLCLean1NA
CaerphillyGwentLABLABSafe0NA
Cardiff EastSouth GlamorganLABLABSafe0NA
Cardiff NorthMid GlamorganLABLABSafe0NA
Cardiff South and PenarthSouth GlamorganLABLABSafe0NA
Cardiff WestMid GlamorganLABLABSafe0NA
Ceredigion PreseliDyfedPLCPLCLikely0NA
Clwyd EastClwydCONLABSafe1NA
Clwyd NorthClwydCONLABSafe1NA
Dwyfor MeirionnyddClwydPLCPLCSafe0NA
GowerWest GlamorganLABLABSafe0NA
LlanelliDyfedLABLABSafe0NA
Merthyr Tydfil and AberdareMid GlamorganLABLABSafe0NA
Mid and South PembrokeshireDyfedCONLABLikely1NA
MonmouthshireGwentCONToss-Up1NA
Montgomeryshire and GlyndwrPowysCONCONLikely0NA
Neath and Swansea EastWest GlamorganLABLABSafe0NA
Newport EastGwentLABLABSafe0NA
Newport West and IslwynGwentLABLABSafe0NA
PontypriddMid GlamorganLABLABSafe0NA
Rhondda and OgmoreMid GlamorganLABLABSafe0NA
Swansea WestWest GlamorganLABLABSafe0NA
TorfaenGwentLABLABSafe0NA
Vale of GlamorganSouth GlamorganCONLABSafe1NA
WrexhamClwydCONLABSafe1NA
Ynys MรดnGwyneddCONLABLikely1NA

Abbreviations used in the table: CON = Conservative, LAB = Labour Party, LIB = Liberal Democrats, GRE = Green Party, UKI = UK Independence Party (UKIP), SNP = Scottish National Party (SNP), PLC = Plaid Cymru – The Party of Wales, REF = Reform UK, SDP = Social Democratic Party, ALL = Alliance – Alliance Party of Northern Ireland, SFA = Sinn Fรฉin, DUP = Democratic Unionist Party – D.U.P., SDL = SDLP (Social Democratic & Labour Party)