Forecast Predictions

Our forecast uses the polls and notional results for the 2019 general election to predict the outcome in each of the 650 constituencies at the next election. It is exactly the same as the nowcast, but before simulating the election it tries to estimate how the polls will change between now and the election. It is built on the assumption that polls are impossible to predict and that each party’s vote share may go up or down before the election

The forecast is our prefered model for predicting the outcome of the election as it takes account of potential changes in the polls.

We classify seats in to four categories:

  • Safe seats are very unlikely to be won by another party. Seats are considered safe if the model thinks they will be won by the same party at least 90% of the time.
  • It is improbable that a likely seat is won by another party. Seats are considered likely if the model thinks they will be won by the same party at least 80% of the time.
  • Seats that lean to one party may be won by another party. Seats are considered to lean to one party if the model thinks they will be won by the same party at least 70% of the time (or 60% of the time if three parties win 10% of the vote).
  • All other seats are described as toss-ups.
PartyToss-UpLeanLikelySafeTotal
Labour2052322394
Conservative226852142
Liberal Democrats381728
DUP268
Sinn Féin156
SDLP22
Plaid Cymru112
Green Party11
Speaker11
SNP3710
Alliance11
5555

Battlegrounds

The battlegrounds in an election are defined by the extent of the swing between the parties. To begin with we can identify where the competitive seats are (those classified likely, lean or toss-up). We can also identify seats that are already considered safe for a different party (Safe Gains). This indicates a big swing against the incumbent party.

Battleground Seats by Region
Safe Gains

It is also important to consider the starting position from the previous elections. To that end, we have defined four battlegrounds that we think will decide who will govern after the next election. We have identified 175 seats in Southern England, the Midlands, Northern England and Scotland. They are mostly held by the Conservatives and SNP and many will need to won by Labour if they are to win the election.

Southern England

The Southern England Battleground is defined as all seats in London, the South East, South West and the East of England where the Tories had a majority of less than 10 000 or another partyhad a majority of less than 4 000. It includes 54 seats – 5 held by Labour and 49 by the Conservatives. This is our version of what is often called the Blue Wall. It includes seats in the suburbs of many southern cities such as London, Bristol and Southampton along with many covering towns in London’s commuter belt such as Bedford, Crawley, Stevenage and Watford. Labour are the main challenger in most of these seats but there are a clutch of seats around London and along the south coast where the Liberal Democrats have a chance of gains The graph below shows the forecast’s current prediction for the outcome in the Southern England Battleground:

The Midlands

The Midlands Battleground is defined as all seats in the Midlands where the Tories had a majority of less than 10 000 or another party had a majority of less than 4 000. It is composed of 30 seats – 6 held by Labour and 24 by the Conservatives. It includes many urban and suburban seats that went Tory in 2019 particularly around the cities of Birmingham, Nottingham and Stoke. It is a straight Conservative vs Labour battle. Reform (and its predecessors) have picked up substantial shares of the vote in the recent past but are unlikely to challenge the red-blue duopoly this time. The graph below shows the forecast’s current prediction for the outcome in the Midlands Battleground:

Northern England

The Northern England Battleground is defined as all seats in North East England; North West England, Yorkshire and the Humber where the Tories had a majority of less than 10 000 or another party had a majority of less than 4 000. It includes 60 seats – 24 held by Labour and 36 by the Conservatives. This is our version of what is often called the Red Wall. It is mostly composed of suburban seats in three clusters – in South and West Yorkshire, Greater Manchester and on Tyneside. There are also a few seats covering towns in Cumbria, Lancashire and Cheshire. It is mostly a Conservative /Labour battleground but there are areas with a Liberal tradition (mostly in Cumbria). The graph below shows the forecast’s current prediction for the outcome in the Northern England Battleground:

Scotland

The Scotland Battleground is defined as anywhere where the incumbent had a majority of less than 8 000. It includes 31 out of 57 Scottish seats – 6 held by the Conservatives, 2 by the Liberal Democrats and 23 by the SNP. It includes wide swathes of Scotland with some very different seats. Most of the Highlands and islands are in the battleground along with seats in rural parts of Aberdeenshire, Perthshire, Dumfries and Galloway. However, there are also four seats in Glasgow along with similarly urban parts of Lanarkshire and Renfrewshire. This all reflects the wide playing field on which Scottish politics has been fought in the last decade or so. The SNP, Labour, the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats all have hopes of winning seats depending on the dynamics of the election. Scotland is the most fluid and elastic of the battlegrounds – small changes in the vote share for each party could have profound consequences in terms of seats. The graph below shows the forecast’s current prediction for the outcome in the Scotland Battleground:

Change in the Forecast

The forecast changes over time due to two key factors. Firstly, new polling is published and included in the model every few days. Secondly, the election gets closer, hence the time the polls have to change gets shorter. The graph below shows the forecast of the outcomes since the start of 2024:

Constituency Forecast Predictions

ConstituencyCountyNotional Winner 2019Forecast WinnerClassificationForecast Party ChangeBattleground
Amber ValleyDerbyshireCONToss-Up0NA
AshfieldNottinghamshireCONLABLikely1Midlands
BassetlawNottinghamshireCONLABLikely1NA
BolsoverDerbyshireCONLABSafe1Midlands
Boston and SkegnessLincolnshireCONCONSafe0NA
BroxtoweNottinghamshireCONLABSafe1Midlands
ChesterfieldDerbyshireLABLABSafe0Midlands
Corby and East NorthamptonshireNorthamptonshireCONLABSafe1Midlands
DaventryNorthamptonshireCONCONSafe0NA
Derby NorthDerbyshireCONLABSafe1Midlands
Derby SouthDerbyshireLABLABSafe0NA
Derbyshire DalesDerbyshireCONToss-Up1NA
ErewashDerbyshireCONLABSafe1NA
GainsboroughLincolnshireCONCONSafe0NA
GedlingNottinghamshireCONLABSafe1Midlands
Grantham and BourneLincolnshireCONCONSafe0NA
Harborough, Oadby and WigstonLeicestershireCONLABLikely1NA
High PeakDerbyshireCONLABSafe1Midlands
Hinckley and BosworthLeicestershireCONCONSafe0NA
KetteringNorthamptonshireCONToss-Up1NA
Leicester EastLeicestershireLABLABSafe0NA
Leicester SouthLeicestershireLABLABSafe0NA
Leicester WestLeicestershireLABLABSafe0NA
LincolnLincolnshireCONLABSafe1Midlands
LoughboroughLeicestershireCONLABSafe1Midlands
Louth and HorncastleLincolnshireCONCONSafe0NA
MansfieldNottinghamshireCONToss-Up1NA
Melton and SystonLeicestershireCONCONLikely0NA
Mid DerbyshireDerbyshireCONLABLean1NA
Mid LeicestershireLeicestershireCONToss-Up0NA
NewarkNottinghamshireCONCONLean0NA
North East DerbyshireDerbyshireCONLABLikely1NA
North West LeicestershireLeicestershireCONToss-Up0NA
Northampton NorthNorthamptonshireCONLABSafe1Midlands
Northampton SouthNorthamptonshireCONLABLikely1NA
Nottingham EastNottinghamshireLABLABSafe0NA
Nottingham North and KimberleyNottinghamshireLABLABSafe0Midlands
Nottingham SouthNottinghamshireLABLABSafe0NA
RushcliffeNottinghamshireCONLABSafe1Midlands
Rutland and StamfordRutlandCONCONSafe0NA
Sherwood ForestNottinghamshireCONLABLean1NA
Sleaford and North HykehamLincolnshireCONCONSafe0NA
South DerbyshireDerbyshireCONToss-Up1NA
South Holland and the DeepingsLincolnshireCONCONSafe0NA
South LeicestershireLeicestershireCONCONSafe0NA
South NorthamptonshireNorthamptonshireCONCONLikely0NA
Wellingborough and RushdenNorthamptonshireCONToss-Up1NA
Basildon and BillericayEssexCONCONLikely0NA
BedfordBedfordshireLABLABSafe0Southern England
BraintreeEssexCONCONSafe0NA
Brentwood and OngarEssexCONCONSafe0NA
Broadland and FakenhamNorfolkCONToss-Up0NA
BroxbourneHertfordshireCONCONLikely0NA
Bury St Edmunds and StowmarketSuffolkCONCONLikely0NA
CambridgeCambridgeshireLABLABSafe0NA
Castle PointEssexCONCONSafe0NA
Central Suffolk and North IpswichSuffolkCONCONLikely0NA
ChelmsfordEssexCONToss-Up0NA
ClactonEssexCONCONSafe0NA
ColchesterEssexCONLABSafe1Southern England
Dunstable and Leighton BuzzardBedfordshireCONLABLean1NA
Ely and East CambridgeshireCambridgeshireCONCONLean0NA
Epping ForestEssexCONCONLikely0NA
Great YarmouthNorfolkCONCONLikely0NA
HarlowEssexCONToss-Up1NA
Harpenden and BerkhamstedHertfordshireCONCONLikely0NA
Harwich and North EssexEssexCONLABLean1NA
Hemel HempsteadHertfordshireCONLABLikely1NA
Hertford and StortfordHertfordshireCONLABLean1NA
HertsmereHertfordshireCONCONLikely0NA
HitchinHertfordshireCONLABSafe1NA
HuntingdonCambridgeshireCONCONLean0NA
IpswichSuffolkCONLABSafe1Southern England
LowestoftSuffolkCONLABLean1NA
Luton NorthBedfordshireLABLABSafe0NA
Luton South and South BedfordshireBedfordshireLABLABSafe0NA
MaldonEssexCONCONSafe0NA
Mid BedfordshireBedfordshireCONCONLikely0NA
Mid NorfolkNorfolkCONCONLikely0NA
North BedfordshireBedfordshireCONCONLikely0NA
North East CambridgeshireCambridgeshireCONCONSafe0NA
North East HertfordshireHertfordshireCONLABLean1NA
North NorfolkNorfolkCONCONLikely0NA
North West CambridgeshireCambridgeshireCONToss-Up0NA
North West EssexEssexCONCONSafe0NA
North West NorfolkNorfolkCONCONLikely0NA
Norwich NorthNorfolkCONLABSafe1Southern England
Norwich SouthNorfolkLABLABSafe0NA
PeterboroughCambridgeshireCONLABSafe1Southern England
Rayleigh and WickfordEssexCONCONSafe0NA
South Basildon and East ThurrockEssexCONCONLikely0NA
South CambridgeshireCambridgeshireCONLIBSafe1Southern England
South NorfolkNorfolkCONLABLean1NA
South SuffolkSuffolkCONCONLikely0NA
South West HertfordshireHertfordshireCONCONLikely0NA
South West NorfolkNorfolkCONCONSafe0NA
Southend East and RochfordEssexCONLABLikely1NA
Southend West and LeighEssexCONLABLikely1NA
St AlbansHertfordshireLIBLIBSafe0NA
St Neots and Mid CambridgeshireCambridgeshireCONToss-Up1NA
StevenageHertfordshireCONLABSafe1Southern England
Suffolk CoastalSuffolkCONToss-Up0NA
ThurrockEssexCONLABLikely1NA
WatfordHertfordshireCONLABSafe1Southern England
Waveney ValleySuffolkCONCONLikely0NA
Welwyn HatfieldHertfordshireCONLABSafe1NA
West SuffolkSuffolkCONCONLikely0NA
WithamEssexCONCONSafe0NA
BarkingGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
BatterseaGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
Beckenham and PengeGreater LondonLABLABSafe0Southern England
Bermondsey and Old SouthwarkGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
Bethnal Green and StepneyGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
Bexleyheath and CrayfordGreater LondonCONLABLean1NA
Brent EastGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
Brent WestGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
Brentford and IsleworthGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
Bromley and Biggin HillGreater LondonCONLABLikely1NA
Carshalton and WallingtonGreater LondonCONLIBSafe1Southern England
Chelsea and FulhamGreater LondonCONLABSafe1Southern England
Chingford and Woodford GreenGreater LondonCONLABSafe1Southern England
Chipping BarnetGreater LondonCONLABSafe1Southern England
Cities of London and WestminsterGreater LondonCONLABSafe1Southern England
Clapham and Brixton HillGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
Croydon EastGreater LondonLABLABSafe0Southern England
Croydon SouthGreater LondonCONLABLikely1NA
Croydon WestGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
Dagenham and RainhamGreater LondonLABLABSafe0Southern England
Dulwich and West NorwoodGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
Ealing Central and ActonGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
Ealing NorthGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
Ealing SouthallGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
East HamGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
Edmonton and Winchmore HillGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
Eltham and ChislehurstGreater LondonCONLABSafe1Southern England
Enfield NorthGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
Erith and ThamesmeadGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
Feltham and HestonGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
Finchley and Golders GreenGreater LondonCONLABLikely1Southern England
Greenwich and WoolwichGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
Hackney North and Stoke NewingtonGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
Hackney South and ShoreditchGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
Hammersmith and ChiswickGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
Hampstead and HighgateGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
Harrow EastGreater LondonCONLABSafe1Southern England
Harrow WestGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
Hayes and HarlingtonGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
HendonGreater LondonCONLABSafe1Southern England
Holborn and St PancrasGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
Hornchurch and UpminsterGreater LondonCONCONLikely0NA
Hornsey and Friern BarnetGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
Ilford NorthGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
Ilford SouthGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
Islington NorthGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
Islington South and FinsburyGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
Kensington and BayswaterGreater LondonLABLABSafe0Southern England
Kingston and SurbitonGreater LondonLIBLIBSafe0NA
Lewisham EastGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
Lewisham NorthGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
Lewisham West and East DulwichGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
Leyton and WansteadGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
Mitcham and MordenGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
Old Bexley and SidcupGreater LondonCONCONLikely0NA
OrpingtonGreater LondonCONCONLikely0NA
PeckhamGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
Poplar and LimehouseGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
PutneyGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
Queen’s Park and Maida ValeGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
Richmond ParkGreater LondonLIBLIBSafe0NA
RomfordGreater LondonCONCONLean0NA
Ruislip, Northwood and PinnerGreater LondonCONLABLikely1NA
Southgate and Wood GreenGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
Stratford and BowGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
Streatham and Croydon NorthGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
Sutton and CheamGreater LondonCONLIBLean1Southern England
TootingGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
TottenhamGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
TwickenhamGreater LondonLIBLIBSafe0NA
Uxbridge and South RuislipGreater LondonCONLABSafe1Southern England
Vauxhall and Camberwell GreenGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
WalthamstowGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
West Ham and BecktonGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
WimbledonGreater LondonCONLIBLikely1Southern England
Bishop AucklandDurhamCONLABSafe1Northern England
Blaydon and ConsettDurhamLABLABSafe0Northern England
Blyth and AshingtonNorthumberlandLABLABSafe0NA
Durham, City OfDurhamLABLABSafe0NA
Cramlington and KillingworthNorthumberlandLABLABSafe0Northern England
DarlingtonDurhamCONLABSafe1Northern England
EasingtonDurhamLABLABSafe0NA
Gateshead Central and WhickhamTyne and WearLABLABSafe0NA
HartlepoolDurhamLABLABSafe0Northern England
HexhamNorthumberlandCONLABSafe1NA
Houghton and Sunderland SouthTyne and WearLABLABSafe0Northern England
Jarrow and Gateshead EastTyne and WearLABLABSafe0NA
Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastNorth YorkshireLABLABSafe0NA
Middlesbrough South and East ClevelandNorth YorkshireCONLABSafe1NA
Newcastle upon Tyne Central and WestTyne and WearLABLABSafe0NA
Newcastle upon Tyne East and WallsendTyne and WearLABLABSafe0NA
Newcastle upon Tyne NorthTyne and WearLABLABSafe0NA
Newton Aycliffe and SpennymoorDurhamCONLABSafe1Northern England
North DurhamDurhamLABLABSafe0NA
North NorthumberlandNorthumberlandCONLABLean1NA
RedcarNorth YorkshireCONLABSafe1Northern England
South ShieldsTyne and WearLABLABSafe0NA
Stockton NorthDurhamLABLABSafe0Northern England
Stockton WestDurhamCONLABSafe1NA
Sunderland CentralTyne and WearLABLABSafe0Northern England
TynemouthTyne and WearLABLABSafe0NA
Washington and Gateshead SouthTyne and WearLABLABSafe0NA
Altrincham and Sale WestGreater ManchesterCONLABSafe1Northern England
Ashton-under-LyneGreater ManchesterLABLABSafe0NA
Barrow and FurnessCumbriaCONLABSafe1Northern England
BirkenheadMerseysideLABLABSafe0NA
BlackburnLancashireLABLABSafe0NA
Blackley and Middleton SouthGreater ManchesterLABLABSafe0NA
Blackpool North and FleetwoodLancashireCONLABSafe1NA
Blackpool SouthLancashireCONLABSafe1Northern England
Bolton North EastGreater ManchesterCONLABSafe1Northern England
Bolton South and WalkdenGreater ManchesterLABLABSafe0NA
Bolton WestGreater ManchesterCONLABSafe1Northern England
BootleMerseysideLABLABSafe0NA
BurnleyLancashireCONLABSafe1Northern England
Bury NorthGreater ManchesterCONLABSafe1Northern England
Bury SouthGreater ManchesterCONLABSafe1Northern England
CarlisleCumbriaCONLABSafe1NA
CheadleGreater ManchesterCONLIBSafe1Northern England
Chester North and NestonCheshireLABLABSafe0NA
Chester South and EddisburyCheshireCONCONLean0NA
ChorleyLancashireSKRSKRSafe0NA
CongletonCheshireCONToss-Up0NA
Crewe and NantwichCheshireCONLABSafe1Northern England
Ellesmere Port and BromboroughCheshireLABLABSafe0NA
FyldeLancashireCONCONLean0NA
Gorton and DentonGreater ManchesterLABLABSafe0NA
Hazel GroveGreater ManchesterCONLIBLikely1Northern England
Heywood and Middleton NorthGreater ManchesterLABLABSafe0Northern England
HyndburnLancashireCONLABSafe1Northern England
KnowsleyMerseysideLABLABSafe0NA
Lancaster and WyreLancashireCONLABSafe1Northern England
Leigh and AthertonGreater ManchesterCONLABSafe1Northern England
Liverpool GarstonMerseysideLABLABSafe0NA
Liverpool RiversideMerseysideLABLABSafe0NA
Liverpool WaltonMerseysideLABLABSafe0NA
Liverpool WavertreeMerseysideLABLABSafe0NA
Liverpool West DerbyMerseysideLABLABSafe0NA
MacclesfieldCheshireCONLABSafe1NA
MakerfieldGreater ManchesterLABLABSafe0NA
Manchester CentralGreater ManchesterLABLABSafe0NA
Manchester RusholmeGreater ManchesterLABLABSafe0NA
Manchester WithingtonGreater ManchesterLABLABSafe0NA
Mid CheshireCheshireCONLABSafe1Northern England
Morecambe and LunesdaleLancashireCONLABLikely1NA
Oldham East and SaddleworthGreater ManchesterLABLABSafe0Northern England
Oldham West, Chadderton and RoytonGreater ManchesterLABLABSafe0NA
Pendle and ClitheroeLancashireCONLABSafe1NA
Penrith and SolwayCumbriaCONLABSafe1NA
PrestonLancashireLABLABSafe0NA
Ribble ValleyLancashireCONLABLean1NA
RochdaleGreater ManchesterLABLABSafe0NA
Rossendale and DarwenLancashireCONLABSafe1Northern England
Runcorn and HelsbyCheshireLABLABSafe0NA
SalfordGreater ManchesterLABLABSafe0NA
Sefton CentralMerseysideLABLABSafe0NA
South RibbleLancashireCONLABSafe1Northern England
SouthportMerseysideCONLABSafe1Northern England
St Helens NorthMerseysideLABLABSafe0NA
St Helens South and WhistonMerseysideLABLABSafe0NA
Stalybridge and HydeGreater ManchesterLABLABSafe0Northern England
StockportGreater ManchesterLABLABSafe0NA
Stretford and UrmstonGreater ManchesterLABLABSafe0NA
TattonCheshireCONToss-Up1NA
WallaseyMerseysideLABLABSafe0NA
Warrington NorthCheshireLABLABSafe0Northern England
Warrington SouthCheshireLABLABSafe0Northern England
West LancashireLancashireLABLABSafe0NA
Westmorland and LonsdaleCumbriaCONLIBSafe1Northern England
Whitehaven and WorkingtonCumbriaCONLABSafe1Northern England
Widnes and HalewoodCheshireLABLABSafe0NA
WiganGreater ManchesterLABLABSafe0NA
Wirral WestMerseysideLABLABSafe0Northern England
Worsley and EcclesGreater ManchesterLABLABSafe0Northern England
Wythenshawe and Sale EastGreater ManchesterLABLABSafe0NA
AldershotHampshireCONToss-Up1NA
Arundel and South DownsWest SussexCONCONLikely0NA
AshfordKentCONToss-Up0NA
AylesburyBuckinghamshireCONLABLikely1NA
BanburyOxfordshireCONLABLikely1NA
BasingstokeHampshireCONLABSafe1NA
BeaconsfieldBuckinghamshireCONCONSafe0NA
Bexhill and BattleEast SussexCONCONLikely0NA
Bicester and WoodstockOxfordshireCONToss-Up0NA
Bognor Regis and LittlehamptonWest SussexCONCONLikely0NA
BracknellBerkshireCONLABLikely1NA
Brighton Kemptown and PeacehavenEast SussexLABLABSafe0NA
Brighton PavilionEast SussexGREGRESafe0NA
Buckingham and BletchleyBuckinghamshireCONLABLikely1NA
CanterburyKentLABLABSafe0Southern England
Chatham and AylesfordKentCONCONLikely0NA
Chesham and AmershamBuckinghamshireCONCONLikely0NA
ChichesterWest SussexCONCONLikely0NA
CrawleyWest SussexCONLABSafe1Southern England
DartfordKentCONLABLean1NA
Didcot and WantageOxfordshireCONToss-Up1Southern England
Dorking and HorleySurreyCONLIBLean1NA
Dover and DealKentCONLABSafe1NA
Earley and WoodleyBerkshireCONLABSafe1Southern England
East Grinstead and UckfieldEast SussexCONCONLikely0NA
East HampshireHampshireCONCONSafe0NA
East SurreySurreyCONCONSafe0NA
East ThanetKentCONLABSafe1Southern England
East Worthing and ShorehamWest SussexCONLABSafe1Southern England
EastbourneEast SussexCONLIBSafe1Southern England
EastleighHampshireCONLIBLikely1Southern England
Epsom and EwellSurreyCONToss-Up0NA
Esher and WaltonSurreyCONLIBSafe1Southern England
Fareham and WaterloovilleHampshireCONCONLikely0NA
Farnham and BordonHampshireCONCONLean0NA
Faversham and Mid KentKentCONCONLikely0NA
Folkestone and HytheKentCONLABLikely1NA
Gillingham and RainhamKentCONLABLean1NA
Godalming and AshSurreyCONLIBLean1NA
GosportHampshireCONCONSafe0NA
GraveshamKentCONLABLean1NA
GuildfordSurreyCONLIBSafe1Southern England
Hamble ValleyHampshireCONCONSafe0NA
Hastings and RyeEast SussexCONLABSafe1Southern England
HavantHampshireCONCONSafe0NA
Henley and ThameOxfordshireCONToss-Up1NA
Herne Bay and SandwichKentCONCONLikely0NA
HorshamWest SussexCONCONLean0NA
Hove and PortsladeEast SussexLABLABSafe0NA
Isle of Wight EastIsle of WightCONToss-Up1NA
Isle of Wight WestIsle of WightCONLABLikely1NA
LewesEast SussexCONLIBSafe1Southern England
MaidenheadBerkshireCONCONLikely0NA
Maidstone and MallingKentCONCONLikely0NA
Mid BuckinghamshireBuckinghamshireCONCONSafe0NA
Mid SussexWest SussexCONLABLean1NA
Milton Keynes CentralBuckinghamshireCONLABSafe1Southern England
Milton Keynes NorthBuckinghamshireCONLABSafe1Southern England
New Forest EastHampshireCONCONSafe0NA
New Forest WestHampshireCONCONSafe0NA
NewburyBerkshireCONToss-Up1NA
North East HampshireHampshireCONCONSafe0NA
North West HampshireHampshireCONCONLikely0NA
Oxford EastOxfordshireLABLABSafe0NA
Oxford West and AbingdonOxfordshireLIBLIBSafe0NA
Portsmouth NorthHampshireCONToss-Up1NA
Portsmouth SouthHampshireLABLABSafe0NA
Reading CentralBerkshireLABLABSafe0NA
Reading West and Mid BerkshireBerkshireCONToss-Up1NA
ReigateSurreyCONCONLean0NA
Rochester and StroodKentCONLABLikely1NA
Romsey and Southampton NorthHampshireCONCONLikely0NA
Runnymede and WeybridgeSurreyCONToss-Up0NA
SevenoaksKentCONCONSafe0NA
Sittingbourne and SheppeyKentCONCONSafe0NA
SloughBerkshireLABLABSafe0NA
Southampton ItchenHampshireCONLABSafe1Southern England
Southampton TestHampshireLABLABSafe0NA
SpelthorneSurreyCONToss-Up0NA
Surrey HeathSurreyCONCONLikely0NA
Sussex WealdEast SussexCONCONSafe0NA
TonbridgeKentCONCONSafe0NA
Tunbridge WellsKentCONCONLean0NA
Weald of KentKentCONCONSafe0NA
WinchesterHampshireCONLIBLikely1Southern England
WindsorBerkshireCONToss-Up0NA
WitneyOxfordshireCONCONLikely0NA
WokingSurreyCONToss-Up1Southern England
WokinghamBerkshireCONToss-Up0NA
Worthing WestWest SussexCONLABLikely1NA
WycombeBuckinghamshireCONLABSafe1Southern England
BathSomersetLIBLIBSafe0NA
Bournemouth EastDorsetCONLABSafe1Southern England
Bournemouth WestDorsetCONLABSafe1Southern England
BridgwaterSomersetCONToss-Up0NA
Bristol CentralBristolLABLABSafe0NA
Bristol EastBristolLABLABSafe0NA
Bristol North EastBristolLABLABSafe0NA
Bristol North WestBristolLABLABSafe0NA
Bristol SouthBristolLABLABSafe0NA
Camborne and RedruthCornwallCONLABSafe1Southern England
Central DevonDevonCONLABLikely1NA
CheltenhamGloucestershireCONLIBSafe1Southern England
ChippenhamWiltshireCONCONLean0NA
ChristchurchDorsetCONCONSafe0NA
East WiltshireWiltshireCONCONSafe0NA
ExeterDevonLABLABSafe0NA
Exmouth and Exeter EastDevonCONCONSafe0Southern England
Filton and Bradley StokeGloucestershireCONLABSafe1Southern England
Forest of DeanGloucestershireCONLABLikely1NA
Frome and East SomersetSomersetCONLABLikely1NA
Glastonbury and SomertonSomersetCONCONLean0NA
GloucesterGloucestershireCONLABSafe1Southern England
Honiton and SidmouthDevonCONCONSafe0NA
Melksham and DevizesWiltshireCONCONLikely0NA
Mid Dorset and North PooleDorsetCONCONLikely0NA
Newton AbbotDevonCONCONLean0NA
North CornwallCornwallCONCONLikely0NA
North CotswoldsGloucestershireCONCONLikely0NA
North DevonDevonCONCONLean0NA
North DorsetDorsetCONCONSafe0NA
North East Somerset and HanhamSomersetCONLABLikely1NA
North SomersetSomersetCONLABLikely1NA
Plymouth Moor ViewDevonCONLABLikely1NA
Plymouth Sutton and DevonportDevonLABLABSafe0NA
PooleDorsetCONCONLean0NA
SalisburyWiltshireCONToss-Up0NA
South CotswoldsGloucestershireCONCONLikely0NA
South DevonDevonCONToss-Up0NA
South DorsetDorsetCONToss-Up1NA
South East CornwallCornwallCONCONLean0NA
South West DevonDevonCONCONLikely0NA
South West WiltshireWiltshireCONToss-Up0NA
St Austell and NewquayCornwallCONLABLikely1NA
St IvesCornwallCONLIBSafe1Southern England
StroudGloucestershireCONLABSafe1Southern England
Swindon NorthWiltshireCONLABLikely1NA
Swindon SouthWiltshireCONLABSafe1Southern England
Taunton and WellingtonSomersetCONLIBLikely1Southern England
TewkesburyGloucestershireCONCONLikely0NA
Thornbury and YateGloucestershireCONCONLean0NA
Tiverton and MineheadSomersetCONCONSafe0NA
TorbayDevonCONCONLikely0NA
Torridge and TavistockDevonCONCONLikely0NA
Truro and FalmouthCornwallCONLABSafe1Southern England
Wells and Mendip HillsSomersetCONCONLean0NA
West DorsetDorsetCONToss-Up1NA
Weston-Super-MareSomersetCONLABLikely1NA
YeovilSomersetCONCONLikely0NA
Aldridge-BrownhillsWest MidlandsCONCONSafe0NA
Birmingham EdgbastonWest MidlandsLABLABSafe0NA
Birmingham ErdingtonWest MidlandsLABLABSafe0NA
Birmingham Hall Green and MoseleyWest MidlandsLABLABSafe0NA
Birmingham Hodge Hill and Solihull NorthWest MidlandsLABLABSafe0NA
Birmingham LadywoodWest MidlandsLABLABSafe0NA
Birmingham NorthfieldWest MidlandsCONLABSafe1Midlands
Birmingham Perry BarrWest MidlandsLABLABSafe0NA
Birmingham Selly OakWest MidlandsLABLABSafe0NA
Birmingham YardleyWest MidlandsLABLABSafe0NA
BromsgroveWorcestershireCONCONLikely0NA
Burton and UttoxeterStaffordshireCONLABLikely1NA
Cannock ChaseStaffordshireCONCONLikely0NA
Coventry EastWest MidlandsLABLABSafe0NA
Coventry North WestWest MidlandsLABLABSafe0Midlands
Coventry SouthWest MidlandsLABLABSafe0Midlands
Droitwich and EveshamWorcestershireCONCONSafe0NA
DudleyWest MidlandsCONLABLean1NA
HalesowenWest MidlandsCONLABLikely1NA
Hereford and South HerefordshireHerefordshireCONCONLikely0NA
Kenilworth and SouthamWarwickshireCONCONLikely0NA
Kingswinford and South StaffordshireStaffordshireCONCONSafe0NA
LichfieldStaffordshireCONCONLikely0NA
Meriden and Solihull EastWest MidlandsCONCONLikely0NA
Newcastle-under-LymeStaffordshireCONLABSafe1Midlands
North HerefordshireHerefordshireCONCONSafe0NA
North ShropshireShropshireCONCONLean0NA
North Warwickshire and BedworthWarwickshireCONCONLean0NA
NuneatonWarwickshireCONLABLikely1NA
RedditchWorcestershireCONCONLean0NA
RugbyWarwickshireCONLABLikely1NA
ShrewsburyShropshireCONLABSafe1Midlands
SmethwickWest MidlandsLABLABSafe0NA
Solihull West and ShirleyWest MidlandsCONCONLikely0NA
South ShropshireShropshireCONCONSafe0NA
StaffordStaffordshireCONLABLikely1NA
Staffordshire MoorlandsStaffordshireCONToss-Up0NA
Stoke-on-Trent CentralStaffordshireCONLABSafe1Midlands
Stoke-on-Trent NorthStaffordshireCONLABSafe1Midlands
Stoke-on-Trent SouthStaffordshireCONLABLean1NA
Stone, Great Wyrley and PenkridgeStaffordshireCONCONSafe0NA
StourbridgeWest MidlandsCONLABLean1NA
Stratford-on-AvonWarwickshireCONCONSafe0NA
Sutton ColdfieldWest MidlandsCONToss-Up0NA
TamworthStaffordshireCONCONLikely0NA
TelfordShropshireCONLABSafe1NA
The WrekinShropshireCONCONLikely0NA
Tipton and WednesburyWest MidlandsCONLABSafe1Midlands
Walsall and BloxwichWest MidlandsCONLABSafe1Midlands
Warwick and LeamingtonWarwickshireLABLABSafe0Midlands
West BromwichWest MidlandsCONLABSafe1Midlands
West WorcestershireWorcestershireCONCONLikely0NA
Wolverhampton North EastWest MidlandsCONLABSafe1Midlands
Wolverhampton South EastWest MidlandsLABLABSafe0Midlands
Wolverhampton WestWest MidlandsCONLABSafe1Midlands
WorcesterWorcestershireCONLABSafe1Midlands
Wyre ForestWorcestershireCONCONLikely0NA
Barnsley NorthSouth YorkshireLABLABLikely0NA
Barnsley SouthSouth YorkshireLABLABSafe0NA
Beverley and HoldernessEast Riding of YorkshireCONToss-Up0NA
Bradford EastWest YorkshireLABLABSafe0NA
Bradford SouthWest YorkshireLABLABSafe0Northern England
Bradford WestWest YorkshireLABLABSafe0NA
Bridlington and the WoldsEast Riding of YorkshireCONCONSafe0NA
Brigg and ImminghamLincolnshireCONCONSafe0NA
Calder ValleyWest YorkshireCONLABSafe1Northern England
Colne ValleyWest YorkshireCONLABSafe1Northern England
Dewsbury and BatleyWest YorkshireLABLABSafe0NA
Doncaster CentralSouth YorkshireLABLABSafe0Northern England
Doncaster East and the Isle of AxholmeSouth YorkshireCONLABSafe1NA
Doncaster NorthSouth YorkshireLABLABSafe0Northern England
Goole and PocklingtonEast Riding of YorkshireCONCONLikely0NA
Great Grimsby and CleethorpesLincolnshireCONLABSafe1Midlands
HalifaxWest YorkshireLABLABSafe0Northern England
Harrogate and KnaresboroughNorth YorkshireCONLIBLikely1Northern England
HuddersfieldWest YorkshireLABLABSafe0NA
Keighley and IlkleyWest YorkshireCONLABSafe1Northern England
Kingston upon Hull EastEast Riding of YorkshireLABLABSafe0Northern England
Kingston upon Hull North and CottinghamEast Riding of YorkshireLABLABSafe0NA
Kingston upon Hull West and HaltempriceEast Riding of YorkshireCONLABSafe1Northern England
Leeds Central and HeadingleyWest YorkshireLABLABSafe0NA
Leeds EastWest YorkshireLABLABSafe0Northern England
Leeds North EastWest YorkshireLABLABSafe0NA
Leeds North WestWest YorkshireCONLABSafe1Northern England
Leeds SouthWest YorkshireLABLABSafe0NA
Leeds South West and MorleyWest YorkshireCONLABSafe1Northern England
Leeds West and PudseyWest YorkshireLABLABSafe0NA
Normanton and HemsworthWest YorkshireLABLABSafe0Northern England
Ossett and Denby DaleWest YorkshireCONLABSafe1NA
Penistone and StocksbridgeSouth YorkshireCONLABSafe1Northern England
Pontefract, Castleford and KnottingleyWest YorkshireLABLABSafe0Northern England
Rawmarsh and ConisbroughSouth YorkshireLABLABSafe0Northern England
Richmond and NorthallertonNorth YorkshireCONCONSafe0NA
Rother ValleySouth YorkshireCONLABSafe1Northern England
RotherhamSouth YorkshireLABLABSafe0Northern England
Scarborough and WhitbyNorth YorkshireCONLABSafe1NA
ScunthorpeLincolnshireCONLABSafe1Midlands
SelbyNorth YorkshireCONLABLikely1NA
Sheffield Brightside and HillsboroughSouth YorkshireLABLABSafe0NA
Sheffield CentralSouth YorkshireLABLABSafe0NA
Sheffield HallamSouth YorkshireLABLABSafe0Northern England
Sheffield HeeleySouth YorkshireLABLABSafe0NA
Sheffield South EastSouth YorkshireLABLABSafe0NA
ShipleyWest YorkshireCONLABSafe1Northern England
Skipton and RiponNorth YorkshireCONCONLikely0NA
Spen ValleyWest YorkshireCONLABSafe1Northern England
Thirsk and MaltonNorth YorkshireCONCONLikely0NA
Wakefield and RothwellWest YorkshireCONLABSafe1Northern England
Wetherby and EasingwoldWest YorkshireCONCONSafe0NA
York CentralNorth YorkshireLABLABSafe0NA
York OuterNorth YorkshireCONLABSafe1NA
Belfast EastAntrimDUPDUPLikely0NA
Belfast NorthAntrimSFASFASafe0NA
Belfast South and Mid DownAntrimSDLSDLSafe0NA
Belfast WestAntrimSFASFASafe0NA
East AntrimAntrimDUPDUPSafe0NA
East LondonderryLondonderryDUPDUPSafe0NA
Fermanagh and South TyroneFermanaghSFAToss-Up0NA
FoyleLondonderrySDLSDLSafe0NA
Lagan ValleyAntrimDUPDUPSafe0NA
Mid UlsterTyroneSFASFASafe0NA
Newry and ArmaghArmaghSFASFASafe0NA
North AntrimAntrimDUPDUPSafe0NA
North DownDownALLALLLikely0NA
South AntrimAntrimDUPDUPLikely0NA
South DownDownSFASFALikely0NA
StrangfordDownDUPDUPSafe0NA
Upper BannArmaghDUPDUPSafe0NA
West TyroneTyroneSFASFASafe0NA
Aberdeen NorthGrampianSNPSNPLikely0NA
Aberdeen SouthGrampianSNPSNPLean0Scotland
Aberdeenshire North and Moray EastGrampianCONCONLikely0Scotland
Airdrie and ShottsLanarkshireSNPLABSafe1Scotland
Alloa and GrangemouthStirlingshireSNPSNPLikely0NA
Angus and Perthshire GlensTaysideSNPSNPLikely0Scotland
Arbroath and Broughty FerryTaysideSNPSNPLikely0NA
Argyll, Bute and South LochaberHighlands and IslandsSNPSNPLean0Scotland
Ayr, Carrick and CumnockAyrshireSNPToss-Up1Scotland
Bathgate and LinlithgowLothianSNPLABLikely1NA
Berwickshire, Roxburgh and SelkirkBordersCONCONLikely0Scotland
Caithness, Sutherland and Easter RossHighlands and IslandsSNPToss-Up1Scotland
Central AyrshireAyrshireSNPToss-Up0Scotland
Coatbridge and BellshillLanarkshireSNPLABSafe1Scotland
Cowdenbeath and KirkcaldyFifeSNPLABSafe1Scotland
Cumbernauld and KirkintillochDunbartonshireSNPLABLikely1NA
Dumfries and GallowayDumfries and GallowayCONToss-Up0Scotland
Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and TweeddaleDumfries and GallowayCONCONLikely0Scotland
Dundee CentralTaysideSNPToss-Up0NA
Dunfermline and DollarFifeSNPLABLikely1NA
East Kilbride and StrathavenLanarkshireSNPLABLikely1NA
East RenfrewshireRenfrewshireSNPToss-Up0Scotland
Edinburgh East and MusselburghLothianSNPLABLikely1NA
Edinburgh North and LeithLothianSNPLABLikely1NA
Edinburgh SouthLothianLABLABSafe0NA
Edinburgh South WestLothianSNPToss-Up0NA
Edinburgh WestLothianLIBLIBLikely0Scotland
FalkirkStirlingshireSNPSNPLikely0NA
Glasgow EastGlasgowSNPLABSafe1Scotland
Glasgow NorthGlasgowSNPLABSafe1Scotland
Glasgow North EastGlasgowSNPLABSafe1Scotland
Glasgow SouthGlasgowSNPLABSafe1NA
Glasgow South WestGlasgowSNPLABSafe1Scotland
Glasgow WestGlasgowSNPLABLikely1NA
Glenrothes and Mid FifeFifeSNPLABLikely1NA
Gordon and BuchanGrampianCONCONLikely0Scotland
Hamilton and Clyde ValleyLanarkshireSNPLABSafe1NA
Inverclyde and Renfrewshire WestRenfrewshireSNPLABLikely1NA
Inverness, Skye and West Ross-shireHighlands and IslandsSNPSNPLikely0NA
Kilmarnock and LoudounAyrshireSNPToss-Up0NA
LivingstonLothianSNPLABLikely1NA
Lothian EastLothianSNPLABSafe1Scotland
Mid DunbartonshireDunbartonshireSNPToss-Up1Scotland
MidlothianLothianSNPLABSafe1Scotland
Moray West, Nairn and StrathspeyHighlands and IslandsSNPToss-Up0Scotland
Motherwell, Wishaw and CarlukeLanarkshireSNPLABSafe1Scotland
Na h-Eileanan an IarHighlands and IslandsSNPLABSafe1Scotland
North Ayrshire and ArranAyrshireSNPSNPLean0NA
North East FifeFifeSNPLIBLikely1Scotland
Orkney and ShetlandHighlands and IslandsLIBLIBSafe0Scotland
Paisley and Renfrewshire NorthRenfrewshireSNPLABLikely1NA
Paisley and Renfrewshire SouthRenfrewshireSNPLABLikely1NA
Perth and Kinross-shirePerthshireSNPToss-Up0Scotland
RutherglenLanarkshireSNPLABSafe1Scotland
Stirling and StrathallanStirlingshireSNPSNPLikely0NA
West Aberdeenshire and KincardineGrampianCONToss-Up0Scotland
West DunbartonshireDunbartonshireSNPLABLikely1NA
Aberafan MaestegWest GlamorganLABLABSafe0NA
Alyn and DeesideClwydLABLABSafe0NA
Bangor AberconwyGwyneddCONLABSafe1NA
Blaenau Gwent and RhymneyGwentLABLABSafe0NA
Brecon, Radnor and Cwm TawePowysCONCONLean0NA
BridgendMid GlamorganCONLABSafe1NA
CaerfyrddinDyfedCONToss-Up1NA
CaerphillyGwentLABLABSafe0NA
Cardiff EastSouth GlamorganLABLABSafe0NA
Cardiff NorthMid GlamorganLABLABSafe0NA
Cardiff South and PenarthSouth GlamorganLABLABSafe0NA
Cardiff WestMid GlamorganLABLABSafe0NA
Ceredigion PreseliDyfedPLCPLCLikely0NA
Clwyd EastClwydCONLABLikely1NA
Clwyd NorthClwydCONLABSafe1NA
Dwyfor MeirionnyddClwydPLCPLCSafe0NA
GowerWest GlamorganLABLABSafe0NA
LlanelliDyfedLABLABSafe0NA
Merthyr Tydfil and AberdareMid GlamorganLABLABSafe0NA
Mid and South PembrokeshireDyfedCONLABLean1NA
MonmouthshireGwentCONToss-Up0NA
Montgomeryshire and GlyndwrPowysCONCONLikely0NA
Neath and Swansea EastWest GlamorganLABLABSafe0NA
Newport EastGwentLABLABSafe0NA
Newport West and IslwynGwentLABLABSafe0NA
PontypriddMid GlamorganLABLABSafe0NA
Rhondda and OgmoreMid GlamorganLABLABSafe0NA
Swansea WestWest GlamorganLABLABSafe0NA
TorfaenGwentLABLABSafe0NA
Vale of GlamorganSouth GlamorganCONLABSafe1NA
WrexhamClwydCONLABSafe1NA
Ynys MônGwyneddCONLABLean1NA

Abbreviations used in the table: CON = Conservative, LAB = Labour Party, LIB = Liberal Democrats, GRE = Green Party, UKI = UK Independence Party (UKIP), SNP = Scottish National Party (SNP), PLC = Plaid Cymru – The Party of Wales, REF = Reform UK, SDP = Social Democratic Party, ALL = Alliance – Alliance Party of Northern Ireland, SFA = Sinn Féin, DUP = Democratic Unionist Party – D.U.P., SDL = SDLP (Social Democratic & Labour Party)