Yorkshire and the Humber

Yorkshire and the Humber includes the four ridings of Yorkshire plus two parts of Lincolnshire on the south side of Humber estuary. The four ridings have quite distinct political leanings. The south and west are densely populated and lean left whilst the north is more rural and Conservative leaning and the east a mixture of the two.

South Yorkshire is the most left leaning part of the region. Since 1955 it has always returned at least 11 Labour MPs and no more than three Tories. In fact, three Tory MPs were elected in 2019 following a run of six elections where no there was no Conservative representation there.

West Yorkshire is more competitive and contains a few marginal seats. When the Conservatives have been in power they tend to hold at least 7 seats in the west but they were wiped out there in 1997. They eventually recovered to win 7 seats in 2010 and take two more in 2019. Labour normally hold the rest, in a bad year that means down to 12 or 13 and in a good year above 20. The Lib Dems held one seat in West Yorkshire from 1997 to 2010.

North Yorkshire is reliably blue but with a handful of safe Labour seats. It has few marginal seats and few seats change hands between the parties. The East Riding is similarly split into safe Labour and Conservative seats. The city of Hull tends to return several Labour MPs but the more rural parts of the riding return Conservatives. The exception has been when seats have been drawn that group some of the large towns on the Humber estuary together which have been marginal. On the south side of the estuary, seats like Great Grimsby and Scunthorpe were reliably Labour for many decades but have moved to the Conservatives after a period of voting strongly for UKIP/Brexit Party/Reform (but without electing an MP from any of these parties).

General Election Time Series

Seats Won in Yorkshire and the Humber 1955-2019

Share of the Vote Won in Yorkshire and the Humber 1955-2019

2019 General Election

Seats Won in Yorkshire and the Humber in 2019, by County

Share of the Vote Won in Yorkshire and the Humber in 2019, by County

Share of Seats Won in Yorkshire and the Humber in 2019, by County

Change in Vote Share and Seats Won in Yorkshire and the Humber in 2019, by County

Local Government Composition

Local Councils Held 1973-2023 in Yorkshire and the Humber

Local Council Seats Held 1973-2023 in Yorkshire and the Humber

Election Model Forecast for Next Election

ConstituencyCountyNotional Winner 2019Forecast WinnerClassificationForecast Party ChangeBattleground
Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastNorth YorkshireLABLABSafe0NA
Middlesbrough South and East ClevelandNorth YorkshireCONLABSafe1NA
RedcarNorth YorkshireCONLABSafe1Northern England
Barnsley NorthSouth YorkshireLABLABLikely0NA
Barnsley SouthSouth YorkshireLABLABSafe0NA
Beverley and HoldernessEast Riding of YorkshireCONToss-Up0NA
Bradford EastWest YorkshireLABLABSafe0NA
Bradford SouthWest YorkshireLABLABSafe0Northern England
Bradford WestWest YorkshireLABLABSafe0NA
Bridlington and the WoldsEast Riding of YorkshireCONCONSafe0NA
Calder ValleyWest YorkshireCONLABSafe1Northern England
Colne ValleyWest YorkshireCONLABSafe1Northern England
Dewsbury and BatleyWest YorkshireLABLABSafe0NA
Doncaster CentralSouth YorkshireLABLABSafe0Northern England
Doncaster East and the Isle of AxholmeSouth YorkshireCONLABSafe1NA
Doncaster NorthSouth YorkshireLABLABSafe0Northern England
Goole and PocklingtonEast Riding of YorkshireCONCONLikely0NA
HalifaxWest YorkshireLABLABSafe0Northern England
Harrogate and KnaresboroughNorth YorkshireCONLIBLikely1Northern England
HuddersfieldWest YorkshireLABLABSafe0NA
Keighley and IlkleyWest YorkshireCONLABSafe1Northern England
Kingston upon Hull EastEast Riding of YorkshireLABLABSafe0Northern England
Kingston upon Hull North and CottinghamEast Riding of YorkshireLABLABSafe0NA
Kingston upon Hull West and HaltempriceEast Riding of YorkshireCONLABSafe1Northern England
Leeds Central and HeadingleyWest YorkshireLABLABSafe0NA
Leeds EastWest YorkshireLABLABSafe0Northern England
Leeds North EastWest YorkshireLABLABSafe0NA
Leeds North WestWest YorkshireCONLABSafe1Northern England
Leeds SouthWest YorkshireLABLABSafe0NA
Leeds South West and MorleyWest YorkshireCONLABSafe1Northern England
Leeds West and PudseyWest YorkshireLABLABSafe0NA
Normanton and HemsworthWest YorkshireLABLABSafe0Northern England
Ossett and Denby DaleWest YorkshireCONLABSafe1NA
Penistone and StocksbridgeSouth YorkshireCONLABSafe1Northern England
Pontefract, Castleford and KnottingleyWest YorkshireLABLABSafe0Northern England
Rawmarsh and ConisbroughSouth YorkshireLABLABSafe0Northern England
Richmond and NorthallertonNorth YorkshireCONCONSafe0NA
Rother ValleySouth YorkshireCONLABSafe1Northern England
RotherhamSouth YorkshireLABLABSafe0Northern England
Scarborough and WhitbyNorth YorkshireCONLABSafe1NA
SelbyNorth YorkshireCONLABLikely1NA
Sheffield Brightside and HillsboroughSouth YorkshireLABLABSafe0NA
Sheffield CentralSouth YorkshireLABLABSafe0NA
Sheffield HallamSouth YorkshireLABLABSafe0Northern England
Sheffield HeeleySouth YorkshireLABLABSafe0NA
Sheffield South EastSouth YorkshireLABLABSafe0NA
ShipleyWest YorkshireCONLABSafe1Northern England
Skipton and RiponNorth YorkshireCONCONLikely0NA
Spen ValleyWest YorkshireCONLABSafe1Northern England
Thirsk and MaltonNorth YorkshireCONCONLikely0NA
Wakefield and RothwellWest YorkshireCONLABSafe1Northern England
Wetherby and EasingwoldWest YorkshireCONCONSafe0NA
York CentralNorth YorkshireLABLABSafe0NA
York OuterNorth YorkshireCONLABSafe1NA

Abbreviations used in the table: CON = Conservative, LAB = Labour Party, LIB = Liberal Democrats, GRE = Green Party, UKI = UK Independence Party (UKIP), REF = Reform UK