East Midlands
The East Midlands consists of the counties of Derbyshire, Leicestershire, Lincolnshire Northamptonshire, Nottinghamshire, and Rutland. In electoral terms, it contains one of the most conservative counties in the country (Lincolnshire) as well as traditionally Labour cities of Derby, Nottingham and Leicester.
Over the last half century it has followed the trends of the nation. From the mid-1960s it gradually shifted rightwards, this peaked in 1983 when the region returned 34 Conservative MPs to just 8 Labour members. Although some of this is explained by the non-Tory vote was split between Labour, the Liberals and the SDP. From 1983 onwards the region shifted towards Labour and delivered 34 seats to them in the landslide election of 1997. In the twenty-first century the region moved back to the Conservatives, most evidently in 2010 when they picked up 15 seats.
It has been a common pattern for Leicestershire, Lincolnshire and Northamptonshire to vote more strongly Conservative then the nation as a whole. Derbyshire and Nottinghamshire have normally favoured Labour more then the country. However in 2019 all five counties were to the right of the nation. Derbyshire sent 9 Conservative MPs to Westminster, the only remaining Labour MPs in the county represent the city of Derby. This is a big shift from earlier periods, even when Thatcher was winning her landslide in 1983, Derbyshire still returned 4 Labour MPs and 6 Conservatives.
Two wrinkles should be noted when reviewing data about the East Midlands. Two parts of Lincolnshire are included in Yorkshire and the Humber (due to the creation and subsequent abolition of Humberside). This means the area around Scunthorpe and Grimbsby are dealt with in analysis of Yorkshire and the Humber. Also, no seperate data is reported for Rutland as the county is so small that it has had to share a seat either with Lincolnshire or Leicestershire.
General Election Time Series
Seats Won in the East Midlands 1955-2019
Share of the Vote Won in the East Midlands 1955-2019
2019 General Election
Seats Won in the East Midlands in 2019, by County
Share of the Vote Won in the East Midlands in 2019, by County
Share of Seats Won in the East Midlands in 2019, by County
Change in Vote Share and Seats Won in the East Midlands in 2019, by County
Local Government Composition
Local Councils Held 1973-2023 in the East Midlands
Local Council Seats Held 1973-2023 in the East Midlands
Election Model Forecast for Next Election
| Constituency | County | Notional Winner 2019 | Forecast Winner | Classification | Forecast Party Change | Battleground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amber Valley | Derbyshire | CON | CON | Likely | 0 | NA |
| Ashfield | Nottinghamshire | CON | LAB | Likely | 1 | Midlands |
| Bassetlaw | Nottinghamshire | CON | LAB | Likely | 1 | NA |
| Bolsover | Derbyshire | CON | LAB | Safe | 1 | Midlands |
| Boston and Skegness | Lincolnshire | CON | CON | Safe | 0 | NA |
| Broxtowe | Nottinghamshire | CON | LAB | Safe | 1 | Midlands |
| Chesterfield | Derbyshire | LAB | LAB | Safe | 0 | Midlands |
| Corby and East Northamptonshire | Northamptonshire | CON | LAB | Safe | 1 | Midlands |
| Daventry | Northamptonshire | CON | CON | Safe | 0 | NA |
| Derby North | Derbyshire | CON | LAB | Safe | 1 | Midlands |
| Derby South | Derbyshire | LAB | LAB | Safe | 0 | NA |
| Derbyshire Dales | Derbyshire | CON | CON | Likely | 0 | NA |
| Erewash | Derbyshire | CON | LAB | Safe | 1 | NA |
| Gainsborough | Lincolnshire | CON | CON | Safe | 0 | NA |
| Gedling | Nottinghamshire | CON | LAB | Safe | 1 | Midlands |
| Grantham and Bourne | Lincolnshire | CON | CON | Safe | 0 | NA |
| Harborough, Oadby and Wigston | Leicestershire | CON | Toss-Up | 1 | NA | |
| High Peak | Derbyshire | CON | LAB | Safe | 1 | Midlands |
| Hinckley and Bosworth | Leicestershire | CON | CON | Safe | 0 | NA |
| Kettering | Northamptonshire | CON | CON | Lean | 0 | NA |
| Leicester East | Leicestershire | LAB | LAB | Safe | 0 | NA |
| Leicester South | Leicestershire | LAB | LAB | Safe | 0 | NA |
| Leicester West | Leicestershire | LAB | LAB | Safe | 0 | NA |
| Lincoln | Lincolnshire | CON | LAB | Safe | 1 | Midlands |
| Loughborough | Leicestershire | CON | LAB | Safe | 1 | Midlands |
| Louth and Horncastle | Lincolnshire | CON | CON | Safe | 0 | NA |
| Mansfield | Nottinghamshire | CON | CON | Likely | 0 | NA |
| Melton and Syston | Leicestershire | CON | CON | Likely | 0 | NA |
| Mid Derbyshire | Derbyshire | CON | Toss-Up | 0 | NA | |
| Mid Leicestershire | Leicestershire | CON | CON | Likely | 0 | NA |
| Newark | Nottinghamshire | CON | CON | Likely | 0 | NA |
| North East Derbyshire | Derbyshire | CON | LAB | Likely | 1 | NA |
| North West Leicestershire | Leicestershire | CON | CON | Likely | 0 | NA |
| Northampton North | Northamptonshire | CON | LAB | Safe | 1 | Midlands |
| Northampton South | Northamptonshire | CON | LAB | Likely | 1 | NA |
| Nottingham East | Nottinghamshire | LAB | LAB | Safe | 0 | NA |
| Nottingham North and Kimberley | Nottinghamshire | LAB | LAB | Safe | 0 | Midlands |
| Nottingham South | Nottinghamshire | LAB | LAB | Safe | 0 | NA |
| Rushcliffe | Nottinghamshire | CON | LAB | Safe | 1 | Midlands |
| Rutland and Stamford | Rutland | CON | CON | Safe | 0 | NA |
| Sherwood Forest | Nottinghamshire | CON | Toss-Up | 0 | NA | |
| Sleaford and North Hykeham | Lincolnshire | CON | CON | Safe | 0 | NA |
| South Derbyshire | Derbyshire | CON | CON | Likely | 0 | NA |
| South Holland and the Deepings | Lincolnshire | CON | CON | Safe | 0 | NA |
| South Leicestershire | Leicestershire | CON | CON | Safe | 0 | NA |
| South Northamptonshire | Northamptonshire | CON | CON | Safe | 0 | NA |
| Wellingborough and Rushden | Northamptonshire | CON | CON | Lean | 0 | NA |
| Brigg and Immingham | Lincolnshire | CON | CON | Safe | 0 | NA |
| Great Grimsby and Cleethorpes | Lincolnshire | CON | LAB | Likely | 1 | Midlands |
| Scunthorpe | Lincolnshire | CON | LAB | Safe | 1 | Midlands |
Abbreviations used in the table: CON = Conservative, LAB = Labour Party, LIB = Liberal Democrats, GRE = Green Party, IND = Independent, UKI = UK Independence Party (UKIP), REF = Reform UK