East Midlands

The East Midlands consists of the counties of Derbyshire, Leicestershire, Lincolnshire Northamptonshire, Nottinghamshire, and Rutland. In electoral terms, it contains one of the most conservative counties in the country (Lincolnshire) as well as traditionally Labour cities of Derby, Nottingham and Leicester.

Over the last half century it has followed the trends of the nation. From the mid-1960s it gradually shifted rightwards, this peaked in 1983 when the region returned 34 Conservative MPs to just 8 Labour members. Although some of this is explained by the non-Tory vote was split between Labour, the Liberals and the SDP. From 1983 onwards the region shifted towards Labour and delivered 34 seats to them in the landslide election of 1997. In the twenty-first century the region moved back to the Conservatives, most evidently in 2010 when they picked up 15 seats.

It has been a common pattern for Leicestershire, Lincolnshire and Northamptonshire to vote more strongly Conservative then the nation as a whole. Derbyshire and Nottinghamshire have normally favoured Labour more then the country. However in 2019 all five counties were to the right of the nation. Derbyshire sent 9 Conservative MPs to Westminster, the only remaining Labour MPs in the county represent the city of Derby. This is a big shift from earlier periods, even when Thatcher was winning her landslide in 1983, Derbyshire still returned 4 Labour MPs and 6 Conservatives.

Two wrinkles should be noted when reviewing data about the East Midlands. Two parts of Lincolnshire are included in Yorkshire and the Humber (due to the creation and subsequent abolition of Humberside). This means the area around Scunthorpe and Grimbsby are dealt with in analysis of Yorkshire and the Humber. Also, no seperate data is reported for Rutland as the county is so small that it has had to share a seat either with Lincolnshire or Leicestershire.

General Election Time Series

Seats Won in the East Midlands 1955-2019

Share of the Vote Won in the East Midlands 1955-2019

2019 General Election

Seats Won in the East Midlands in 2019, by County

Share of the Vote Won in the East Midlands in 2019, by County

Share of Seats Won in the East Midlands in 2019, by County

Change in Vote Share and Seats Won in the East Midlands in 2019, by County

Local Government Composition

Local Councils Held 1973-2023 in the East Midlands

Local Council Seats Held 1973-2023 in the East Midlands

Election Model Forecast for Next Election

ConstituencyCountyNotional Winner 2019Forecast WinnerClassificationForecast Party ChangeBattleground
Amber ValleyDerbyshireCONToss-Up0NA
AshfieldNottinghamshireCONLABLikely1Midlands
BassetlawNottinghamshireCONLABLikely1NA
BolsoverDerbyshireCONLABSafe1Midlands
Boston and SkegnessLincolnshireCONCONSafe0NA
BroxtoweNottinghamshireCONLABSafe1Midlands
ChesterfieldDerbyshireLABLABSafe0Midlands
Corby and East NorthamptonshireNorthamptonshireCONLABSafe1Midlands
DaventryNorthamptonshireCONCONSafe0NA
Derby NorthDerbyshireCONLABSafe1Midlands
Derby SouthDerbyshireLABLABSafe0NA
Derbyshire DalesDerbyshireCONToss-Up1NA
ErewashDerbyshireCONLABSafe1NA
GainsboroughLincolnshireCONCONSafe0NA
GedlingNottinghamshireCONLABSafe1Midlands
Grantham and BourneLincolnshireCONCONSafe0NA
Harborough, Oadby and WigstonLeicestershireCONLABLikely1NA
High PeakDerbyshireCONLABSafe1Midlands
Hinckley and BosworthLeicestershireCONCONSafe0NA
KetteringNorthamptonshireCONToss-Up1NA
Leicester EastLeicestershireLABLABSafe0NA
Leicester SouthLeicestershireLABLABSafe0NA
Leicester WestLeicestershireLABLABSafe0NA
LincolnLincolnshireCONLABSafe1Midlands
LoughboroughLeicestershireCONLABSafe1Midlands
Louth and HorncastleLincolnshireCONCONSafe0NA
MansfieldNottinghamshireCONToss-Up1NA
Melton and SystonLeicestershireCONCONLikely0NA
Mid DerbyshireDerbyshireCONLABLean1NA
Mid LeicestershireLeicestershireCONToss-Up0NA
NewarkNottinghamshireCONCONLean0NA
North East DerbyshireDerbyshireCONLABLikely1NA
North West LeicestershireLeicestershireCONToss-Up0NA
Northampton NorthNorthamptonshireCONLABSafe1Midlands
Northampton SouthNorthamptonshireCONLABLikely1NA
Nottingham EastNottinghamshireLABLABSafe0NA
Nottingham North and KimberleyNottinghamshireLABLABSafe0Midlands
Nottingham SouthNottinghamshireLABLABSafe0NA
RushcliffeNottinghamshireCONLABSafe1Midlands
Rutland and StamfordRutlandCONCONSafe0NA
Sherwood ForestNottinghamshireCONLABLean1NA
Sleaford and North HykehamLincolnshireCONCONSafe0NA
South DerbyshireDerbyshireCONToss-Up1NA
South Holland and the DeepingsLincolnshireCONCONSafe0NA
South LeicestershireLeicestershireCONCONSafe0NA
South NorthamptonshireNorthamptonshireCONCONLikely0NA
Wellingborough and RushdenNorthamptonshireCONToss-Up1NA
Brigg and ImminghamLincolnshireCONCONSafe0NA
Great Grimsby and CleethorpesLincolnshireCONLABSafe1Midlands
ScunthorpeLincolnshireCONLABSafe1Midlands

Abbreviations used in the table: CON = Conservative, LAB = Labour Party, LIB = Liberal Democrats, GRE = Green Party, IND = Independent, UKI = UK Independence Party (UKIP), REF = Reform UK