North West England

North West England consists of the counties of Cumbria, Cheshire, Greater Manchester, Lancashire and Merseyside. Politically, it sits slightly to the left of the UK as a whole; although there is a substantial difference between voting patterns in the two big urban counties and the rest of the region. Merseyside consistently has the highest Labour vote share of any county in England, Greater Manchester is not far behind. The rest of the region leans to the right of the UK.

Since 1955, North West England has generally swung with the nation. In the late 50’s and early 60’s the Conservative vote shrank, to the benefit of Labour and the Liberals. The Conservatives had a 6 point lead over Labour at the 1955 election and this had become 9 point deficit when Labour won in 1966. Ted Heath won a narrow victory (47%, 1 point ahead of Labour) in the North West in 1970 but Labour were back ahead at both ‘74 elections. Margeret Thatcher won a similarly narrow victory in 1979 and was greatly helped by the fracturing of the vote in 83 and 87 to retain many MPs with a substantially smaller vote share.

This did not last, as the SDP faded and merged with the Liberals in the late 80’s their vote share declined mostly to the benefit of Labour. In 1992 the North West sent 48 Labour MPs to parliament, up 9 from 87. The Tories meanwhile dropped below 30 seats where they would stay until 2019. Throughout the New Labour era and on in to the 2010’s, North West England continued to have many Labour MPs. The change came with the rise of UKIP.

Although, UKIP never won a seat in the North West their vote share rose as high as 14% in 2015. After the Brexit referendum their vote collapsed and the Conservative benefited. The Tories gained 12 seats in the North West at the 2019 election, although they still have 9 fewer than Labour in the region.

General Election Time Series

Seats Won in North West England 1955-2019

Share of the Vote Won in North West England 1955-2019

2019 General Election

Seats Won in North West England in 2019, by County

Share of the Vote Won in North West England in 2019, by County

Share of Seats Won in North West England in 2019, by County

Change in Vote Share and Seats Won in North West England in 2019, by County

Local Government Composition

Local Councils Held 1973-2023 in North West England

Local Council Seats Held 1973-2023 in North West England

Election Model Forecast for Next Election

ConstituencyCountyNotional Winner 2019Forecast WinnerClassificationForecast Party ChangeBattleground
Altrincham and Sale WestGreater ManchesterCONLABSafe1Northern England
Ashton-under-LyneGreater ManchesterLABLABSafe0NA
Barrow and FurnessCumbriaCONLABSafe1Northern England
BirkenheadMerseysideLABLABSafe0NA
BlackburnLancashireLABLABSafe0NA
Blackley and Middleton SouthGreater ManchesterLABLABSafe0NA
Blackpool North and FleetwoodLancashireCONLABSafe1NA
Blackpool SouthLancashireCONLABSafe1Northern England
Bolton North EastGreater ManchesterCONLABSafe1Northern England
Bolton South and WalkdenGreater ManchesterLABLABSafe0NA
Bolton WestGreater ManchesterCONLABSafe1Northern England
BootleMerseysideLABLABSafe0NA
BurnleyLancashireCONLABSafe1Northern England
Bury NorthGreater ManchesterCONLABSafe1Northern England
Bury SouthGreater ManchesterCONLABSafe1Northern England
CarlisleCumbriaCONLABSafe1NA
CheadleGreater ManchesterCONLIBSafe1Northern England
Chester North and NestonCheshireLABLABSafe0NA
Chester South and EddisburyCheshireCONCONLean0NA
ChorleyLancashireSKRSKRSafe0NA
CongletonCheshireCONToss-Up0NA
Crewe and NantwichCheshireCONLABSafe1Northern England
Ellesmere Port and BromboroughCheshireLABLABSafe0NA
FyldeLancashireCONCONLean0NA
Gorton and DentonGreater ManchesterLABLABSafe0NA
Hazel GroveGreater ManchesterCONLIBLikely1Northern England
Heywood and Middleton NorthGreater ManchesterLABLABSafe0Northern England
HyndburnLancashireCONLABSafe1Northern England
KnowsleyMerseysideLABLABSafe0NA
Lancaster and WyreLancashireCONLABSafe1Northern England
Leigh and AthertonGreater ManchesterCONLABSafe1Northern England
Liverpool GarstonMerseysideLABLABSafe0NA
Liverpool RiversideMerseysideLABLABSafe0NA
Liverpool WaltonMerseysideLABLABSafe0NA
Liverpool WavertreeMerseysideLABLABSafe0NA
Liverpool West DerbyMerseysideLABLABSafe0NA
MacclesfieldCheshireCONLABSafe1NA
MakerfieldGreater ManchesterLABLABSafe0NA
Manchester CentralGreater ManchesterLABLABSafe0NA
Manchester RusholmeGreater ManchesterLABLABSafe0NA
Manchester WithingtonGreater ManchesterLABLABSafe0NA
Mid CheshireCheshireCONLABSafe1Northern England
Morecambe and LunesdaleLancashireCONLABLikely1NA
Oldham East and SaddleworthGreater ManchesterLABLABSafe0Northern England
Oldham West, Chadderton and RoytonGreater ManchesterLABLABSafe0NA
Pendle and ClitheroeLancashireCONLABSafe1NA
Penrith and SolwayCumbriaCONLABSafe1NA
PrestonLancashireLABLABSafe0NA
Ribble ValleyLancashireCONLABLean1NA
RochdaleGreater ManchesterLABLABSafe0NA
Rossendale and DarwenLancashireCONLABSafe1Northern England
Runcorn and HelsbyCheshireLABLABSafe0NA
SalfordGreater ManchesterLABLABSafe0NA
Sefton CentralMerseysideLABLABSafe0NA
South RibbleLancashireCONLABSafe1Northern England
SouthportMerseysideCONLABSafe1Northern England
St Helens NorthMerseysideLABLABSafe0NA
St Helens South and WhistonMerseysideLABLABSafe0NA
Stalybridge and HydeGreater ManchesterLABLABSafe0Northern England
StockportGreater ManchesterLABLABSafe0NA
Stretford and UrmstonGreater ManchesterLABLABSafe0NA
TattonCheshireCONToss-Up1NA
WallaseyMerseysideLABLABSafe0NA
Warrington NorthCheshireLABLABSafe0Northern England
Warrington SouthCheshireLABLABSafe0Northern England
West LancashireLancashireLABLABSafe0NA
Westmorland and LonsdaleCumbriaCONLIBSafe1Northern England
Whitehaven and WorkingtonCumbriaCONLABSafe1Northern England
Widnes and HalewoodCheshireLABLABSafe0NA
WiganGreater ManchesterLABLABSafe0NA
Wirral WestMerseysideLABLABSafe0Northern England
Worsley and EcclesGreater ManchesterLABLABSafe0Northern England
Wythenshawe and Sale EastGreater ManchesterLABLABSafe0NA

Abbreviations used in the table: CON = Conservative, LAB = Labour Party, LIB = Liberal Democrats, GRE = Green Party, UKI = UK Independence Party (UKIP), REF = Reform UK, SKR = Speaker