UK Election Data Vault

North West England

North West England consists of the counties of Cumbria, Cheshire, Greater Manchester, Lancashire and Merseyside. Politically, it sits slightly to the left of the UK as a whole; although there is a substantial difference between voting patterns in the two big urban counties and the rest of the region. Merseyside consistently has the highest Labour vote share of any county in England, Greater Manchester is not far behind. The rest of the region leans to the right of the UK.

Since 1955, North West England has generally swung with the nation. In the late 50’s and early 60’s the Conservative vote shrank, to the benefit of Labour and the Liberals. The Conservatives had a 6 point lead over Labour at the 1955 election and this had become 9 point deficit when Labour won in 1966. Ted Heath won a narrow victory (47%, 1 point ahead of Labour) in the North West in 1970 but Labour were back ahead at both ‘74 elections. Margeret Thatcher won a similarly narrow victory in 1979 and was greatly helped by the fracturing of the vote in 83 and 87 to retain many MPs with a substantially smaller vote share.

This did not last, as the SDP faded and merged with the Liberals in the late 80’s their vote share declined mostly to the benefit of Labour. In 1992 the North West sent 48 Labour MPs to parliament, up 9 from 87. The Tories meanwhile dropped below 30 seats where they would stay until 2019. Throughout the New Labour era and on in to the 2010’s, North West England continued to have many Labour MPs. The change came with the rise of UKIP.

Although, UKIP never won a seat in the North West their vote share rose as high as 14% in 2015. After the Brexit referendum their vote collapsed and the Conservative benefited. The Tories gained 12 seats in the North West at the 2019 election, although they still have 9 fewer than Labour in the region.

General Election Time Series

Seats Won in North West England 1955-2019

Share of the Vote Won in North West England 1955-2019

2019 General Election

Seats Won in North West England in 2019, by County

Share of the Vote Won in North West England in 2019, by County

Share of Seats Won in North West England in 2019, by County

Change in Vote Share and Seats Won in North West England in 2019, by County

Local Government Composition

Local Councils Held 1973-2023 in North West England

Local Council Seats Held 1973-2023 in North West England

Election Model Forecast for Next Election

Abbreviations used in the table: CON = Conservative, LAB = Labour Party, LIB = Liberal Democrats, GRE = Green Party, UKI = UK Independence Party (UKIP), REF = Reform UK, SKR = Speaker