South West England
South West England consists of the City of Bristol and the counties of Cornwall, Dorset, Devon, Gloucestershire, Somerset and Wiltshire. Bristol, like most big cities is to the left of the country but the rest of the region is well to the right. In 2019, the six counties were all at least ten points more blue then the country. The South West returned 48 Conservative MPs that year, which is close to their 2015 peak of 51. Save for the three Blair victories (1997, 2001 and 2005), the region has returned at least 35 Conservatives at every election since 1955.
Outside of Bristol and nearby parts of Gloucestershire and Somerset, Labour have struggled to win many seats at all. Even at their peak in 2001 they only had one seat in each of Cornwall, Dorset and Somerset.
In contrast, the Lib Dems are stronger in the South West then they are anywhere else (save for the Highlands of Scotland and the Northern Isles). Although it may be more fitting to say they were strong in the region. The Coalition years (2010-15) did massive damage to their electoral prospects in the region. They shed 244 council seats in this time along with all 15 of their MPs. A modest recovery is under way, they are back to being a large presence in local government but only hold 1 constituency in the House of Commons.
General Election Time Series
Seats Won in South West England 1955-2019
Share of the Vote Won in South West England 1955-2019
2019 General Election
Seats Won in South West England in 2019, by County
Share of the Vote Won in South West England in 2019, by County
Share of Seats Won in South West England in 2019, by County
Change in Vote Share and Seats Won in South West England in 2019, by County
Local Government Composition
Local Councils Held 1973-2023 in South West England
Local Council Seats Held 1973-2023 in South West England
Election Model Forecast for Next Election
| Constituency | County | Notional Winner 2019 | Forecast Winner | Classification | Forecast Party Change | Battleground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bath | Somerset | LIB | LIB | Safe | 0 | NA |
| Bournemouth East | Dorset | CON | LAB | Safe | 1 | Southern England |
| Bournemouth West | Dorset | CON | LAB | Safe | 1 | Southern England |
| Bridgwater | Somerset | CON | CON | Likely | 0 | NA |
| Bristol Central | Bristol | LAB | LAB | Safe | 0 | NA |
| Bristol East | Bristol | LAB | LAB | Safe | 0 | NA |
| Bristol North East | Bristol | LAB | LAB | Safe | 0 | NA |
| Bristol North West | Bristol | LAB | LAB | Safe | 0 | NA |
| Bristol South | Bristol | LAB | LAB | Safe | 0 | NA |
| Camborne and Redruth | Cornwall | CON | LAB | Safe | 1 | Southern England |
| Central Devon | Devon | CON | Toss-Up | 1 | NA | |
| Cheltenham | Gloucestershire | CON | LIB | Safe | 1 | Southern England |
| Chippenham | Wiltshire | CON | CON | Lean | 0 | NA |
| Christchurch | Dorset | CON | CON | Safe | 0 | NA |
| East Wiltshire | Wiltshire | CON | CON | Safe | 0 | NA |
| Exeter | Devon | LAB | LAB | Safe | 0 | NA |
| Exmouth and Exeter East | Devon | CON | CON | Safe | 0 | Southern England |
| Filton and Bradley Stoke | Gloucestershire | CON | LAB | Safe | 1 | Southern England |
| Forest of Dean | Gloucestershire | CON | Toss-Up | 0 | NA | |
| Frome and East Somerset | Somerset | CON | Toss-Up | 1 | NA | |
| Glastonbury and Somerton | Somerset | CON | CON | Lean | 0 | NA |
| Gloucester | Gloucestershire | CON | LAB | Safe | 1 | Southern England |
| Honiton and Sidmouth | Devon | CON | CON | Safe | 0 | NA |
| Melksham and Devizes | Wiltshire | CON | CON | Likely | 0 | NA |
| Mid Dorset and North Poole | Dorset | CON | CON | Likely | 0 | NA |
| Newton Abbot | Devon | CON | CON | Likely | 0 | NA |
| North Cornwall | Cornwall | CON | CON | Likely | 0 | NA |
| North Cotswolds | Gloucestershire | CON | CON | Safe | 0 | NA |
| North Devon | Devon | CON | CON | Lean | 0 | NA |
| North Dorset | Dorset | CON | CON | Safe | 0 | NA |
| North East Somerset and Hanham | Somerset | CON | LAB | Lean | 1 | NA |
| North Somerset | Somerset | CON | LAB | Lean | 1 | NA |
| Plymouth Moor View | Devon | CON | LAB | Lean | 1 | NA |
| Plymouth Sutton and Devonport | Devon | LAB | LAB | Safe | 0 | NA |
| Poole | Dorset | CON | CON | Likely | 0 | NA |
| Salisbury | Wiltshire | CON | CON | Likely | 0 | NA |
| South Cotswolds | Gloucestershire | CON | CON | Likely | 0 | NA |
| South Devon | Devon | CON | CON | Lean | 0 | NA |
| South Dorset | Dorset | CON | CON | Lean | 0 | NA |
| South East Cornwall | Cornwall | CON | CON | Likely | 0 | NA |
| South West Devon | Devon | CON | CON | Safe | 0 | NA |
| South West Wiltshire | Wiltshire | CON | CON | Likely | 0 | NA |
| St Austell and Newquay | Cornwall | CON | LAB | Lean | 1 | NA |
| St Ives | Cornwall | CON | LIB | Safe | 1 | Southern England |
| Stroud | Gloucestershire | CON | LAB | Safe | 1 | Southern England |
| Swindon North | Wiltshire | CON | LAB | Lean | 1 | NA |
| Swindon South | Wiltshire | CON | LAB | Safe | 1 | Southern England |
| Taunton and Wellington | Somerset | CON | LIB | Likely | 1 | Southern England |
| Tewkesbury | Gloucestershire | CON | CON | Safe | 0 | NA |
| Thornbury and Yate | Gloucestershire | CON | CON | Lean | 0 | NA |
| Tiverton and Minehead | Somerset | CON | CON | Safe | 0 | NA |
| Torbay | Devon | CON | CON | Safe | 0 | NA |
| Torridge and Tavistock | Devon | CON | CON | Safe | 0 | NA |
| Truro and Falmouth | Cornwall | CON | LAB | Safe | 1 | Southern England |
| Wells and Mendip Hills | Somerset | CON | CON | Lean | 0 | NA |
| West Dorset | Dorset | CON | LIB | Lean | 1 | NA |
| Weston-Super-Mare | Somerset | CON | LAB | Lean | 1 | NA |
| Yeovil | Somerset | CON | CON | Likely | 0 | NA |
Abbreviations used in the table: CON = Conservative, LAB = Labour Party, LIB = Liberal Democrats, GRE = Green Party, IND = Independent, UKI = UK Independence Party (UKIP), REF = Reform UK