South West England

South West England consists of the City of Bristol and the counties of Cornwall, Dorset, Devon, Gloucestershire, Somerset and Wiltshire. Bristol, like most big cities is to the left of the country but the rest of the region is well to the right. In 2019, the six counties were all at least ten points more blue then the country. The South West returned 48 Conservative MPs that year, which is close to their 2015 peak of 51. Save for the three Blair victories (1997, 2001 and 2005), the region has returned at least 35 Conservatives at every election since 1955.

Outside of Bristol and nearby parts of Gloucestershire and Somerset, Labour have struggled to win many seats at all. Even at their peak in 2001 they only had one seat in each of Cornwall, Dorset and Somerset.

In contrast, the Lib Dems are stronger in the South West then they are anywhere else (save for the Highlands of Scotland and the Northern Isles). Although it may be more fitting to say they were strong in the region. The Coalition years (2010-15) did massive damage to their electoral prospects in the region. They shed 244 council seats in this time along with all 15 of their MPs. A modest recovery is under way, they are back to being a large presence in local government but only hold 1 constituency in the House of Commons.

General Election Time Series

Seats Won in South West England 1955-2019

Share of the Vote Won in South West England 1955-2019

2019 General Election

Seats Won in South West England in 2019, by County

Share of the Vote Won in South West England in 2019, by County

Share of Seats Won in South West England in 2019, by County

Change in Vote Share and Seats Won in South West England in 2019, by County

Local Government Composition

Local Councils Held 1973-2023 in South West England

Local Council Seats Held 1973-2023 in South West England

Election Model Forecast for Next Election

ConstituencyCountyNotional Winner 2019Forecast WinnerClassificationForecast Party ChangeBattleground
Bournemouth EastDorsetCONLABSafe1Southern England
Bournemouth WestDorsetCONLABSafe1Southern England
Bristol CentralBristolLABLABSafe0NA
Bristol EastBristolLABLABSafe0NA
Bristol North EastBristolLABLABSafe0NA
Bristol North WestBristolLABLABSafe0NA
Bristol SouthBristolLABLABSafe0NA
Camborne and RedruthCornwallCONLABSafe1Southern England
Central DevonDevonCONLABLikely1NA
CheltenhamGloucestershireCONLIBSafe1Southern England
East WiltshireWiltshireCONCONSafe0NA
Exmouth and Exeter EastDevonCONCONSafe0Southern England
Filton and Bradley StokeGloucestershireCONLABSafe1Southern England
Forest of DeanGloucestershireCONLABLikely1NA
Frome and East SomersetSomersetCONLABLikely1NA
Glastonbury and SomertonSomersetCONCONLean0NA
GloucesterGloucestershireCONLABSafe1Southern England
Honiton and SidmouthDevonCONCONSafe0NA
Melksham and DevizesWiltshireCONCONLikely0NA
Mid Dorset and North PooleDorsetCONCONLikely0NA
Newton AbbotDevonCONCONLean0NA
North CornwallCornwallCONCONLikely0NA
North CotswoldsGloucestershireCONCONLikely0NA
North DevonDevonCONCONLean0NA
North DorsetDorsetCONCONSafe0NA
North East Somerset and HanhamSomersetCONLABLikely1NA
North SomersetSomersetCONLABLikely1NA
Plymouth Moor ViewDevonCONLABLikely1NA
Plymouth Sutton and DevonportDevonLABLABSafe0NA
South CotswoldsGloucestershireCONCONLikely0NA
South DevonDevonCONToss-Up0NA
South DorsetDorsetCONToss-Up1NA
South East CornwallCornwallCONCONLean0NA
South West DevonDevonCONCONLikely0NA
South West WiltshireWiltshireCONToss-Up0NA
St Austell and NewquayCornwallCONLABLikely1NA
St IvesCornwallCONLIBSafe1Southern England
StroudGloucestershireCONLABSafe1Southern England
Swindon NorthWiltshireCONLABLikely1NA
Swindon SouthWiltshireCONLABSafe1Southern England
Taunton and WellingtonSomersetCONLIBLikely1Southern England
Thornbury and YateGloucestershireCONCONLean0NA
Tiverton and MineheadSomersetCONCONSafe0NA
Torridge and TavistockDevonCONCONLikely0NA
Truro and FalmouthCornwallCONLABSafe1Southern England
Wells and Mendip HillsSomersetCONCONLean0NA
West DorsetDorsetCONToss-Up1NA

Abbreviations used in the table: CON = Conservative, LAB = Labour Party, LIB = Liberal Democrats, GRE = Green Party, IND = Independent, UKI = UK Independence Party (UKIP), REF = Reform UK