Nowcast Predictions

Our nowcast takes the latest polls and simulates the election as if it were tomorrow. It takes account of potential errors in the polls and variation in swing across the country. It makes no attempt to estimate candidate effects (such as incumbency or scandal).

The nowcast tries to answer the question: “If the polls do not change before the election, what would be the result?”

We classify seats in to four categories:

  • Safe seats are very unlikely to be won by another party. Seats are considered safe if the model thinks they will be won by the same party at least 90% of the time.
  • It is improbable that a likely seat is won by another party. Seats are considered likely if the model thinks they will be won by the same party at least 80% of the time.
  • Seats that lean to one party may be won by another party. Seats are considered to lean to one party if the model thinks they will be won by the same party at least 70% of the time (or 60% of the time if three parties win 10% of the vote).
  • All other seats are described as toss-ups.
PartyToss-UpLeanLikelySafeTotal
Labour945320374
Conservative206588173
Liberal Democrats381728
Sinn Féin1157
DUP426
SDLP22
Plaid Cymru1113
Alliance112
Speaker11
Green Party11
SNP3710
Ulster Unionist Party11
4242

Battlegrounds

The battlegrounds in an election are defined by the extent of the swing between the parties. To begin with we can identify where the competitive seats are (those classified likely, lean or toss-up). We can also identify seats that are already considered safe for a different party (Safe Gains). This indicates a big swing against the incumbent party.

Battleground Seats by Region
Safe Gains

It is also important to consider the starting position from the previous elections. To that end, we have defined four battlegrounds that we think will decide who will govern after the next election. We have identified 175 seats in Southern England, the Midlands, Northern England and Scotland. They are mostly held by the Conservatives and SNP and many will need to won by Labour if they are to win the election.

Southern England

The Southern England Battleground is defined as all seats in London, the South East, South West and the East of England where the Tories had a majority of less than 10 000 or another party had a majority of less than 4 000. It includes 54 seats – 5 held by Labour and 49 by the Conservatives. This is our version of what is often called the Blue Wall. It includes seats in the suburbs of many southern cities such as London, Bristol and Southampton along with many covering towns in London’s commuter belt such as Bedford, Crawley, Stevenage and Watford. Labour are the main challenger in most of these seats but there are a clutch of seats around London and along the south coast where the Liberal Democrats have a chance of gains. The graph below shows the nowcast’s current prediction for the outcome in the Southern England Battleground:

The Midlands

The Midlands Battleground is defined as all seats in the Midlands where the Tories had a majority of less than 10 000 or another partyhad a majority of less than 4 000. It is composed of 30 seats – 6 held by Labour and 24 by the Conservatives. It includes many urban and suburban seats that went Tory in 2019 particularly around the cities of Birmingham, Nottingham and Stoke. It is a straight Conservative vs Labour battle. Reform (and its predecessors) have picked up substantial shares of the vote in the past but are unlikely to challenge the red-blue duopoly this time. The graph below shows the nowcast’s current prediction for the outcome in the Midlands Battleground:

Northern England

The Northern England Battleground is defined as all seats in North East England; North West England, Yorkshire and the Humber where the Tories had a majority of less than 10 000 or another party had a majority of less than 4 000. It includes 60 seats – 24 held by Labour and 36 by the Conservatives. This is our version of what is often called the Red Wall. It is mostly composed of suburban seats in three clusters – in South and West Yorkshire, Greater Manchester and on Tyneside. There are also a few seats covering towns in Cumbria, Lancashire and Cheshire. It is mostly a Conservative /Labour battleground but there are areas with a Liberal tradition (mostly in Cumbria). The graph below shows the nowcast’s current prediction for the outcome in the Northern England Battleground:

Scotland

The Scotland Battleground is defined as anywhere where the incumbent had a majority of less than 8 000. It includes 31 out of 57 Scottish seats – 6 held by the Conservatives, 2 by the Liberal Democrats and 23 by the SNP. It includes wide swathes of Scotland with some very different seats. Most of the Highlands and islands are in the battleground along with seats in rural parts of Aberdeenshire, Perthshire, Dumfries and Galloway. However, there are also four seats in Glasgow along with similarly urban parts of Lanarkshire and Renfrewshire. This all reflects the wide playing field on which Scottish politics has been fought in the last decade or so. The SNP, Labour, the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats all have hopes of winning seats depending on the dynamics of the election. Scotland is the most fluid and elastic of the battlegrounds – small changes in the vote share for each party could have profound consequences in terms of seats. The graph below shows the nowcast’s current prediction for the outcome in the Scotland Battleground:

Change in the Nowcast

The nowcast changes over time as new polling is published. The graph below shows the nowcast estimates of the outcome since the start of 2024:

Constituency Forecast Predictions

ConstituencyCountyNotional Winner 2019Nowcast WinnerClassificationForecast Party ChangeBattleground
Aberafan MaestegWest GlamorganLABLABSafe0NA
Aberdeen NorthGrampianSNPSNPLikely0NA
Aberdeen SouthGrampianSNPSNPLean0Scotland
Aberdeenshire North and Moray EastGrampianCONCONLikely0Scotland
Airdrie and ShottsLanarkshireSNPLABSafe1Scotland
AldershotHampshireCONCONLean0NA
Aldridge-BrownhillsWest MidlandsCONCONSafe0NA
Alloa and GrangemouthStirlingshireSNPSNPLikely0NA
Altrincham and Sale WestGreater ManchesterCONLABSafe1Northern England
Alyn and DeesideClwydLABLABSafe0NA
Amber ValleyDerbyshireCONCONLikely0NA
Angus and Perthshire GlensTaysideSNPSNPLikely0Scotland
Arbroath and Broughty FerryTaysideSNPSNPLikely0NA
Argyll, Bute and South LochaberHighlands and IslandsSNPSNPLean0Scotland
Arundel and South DownsWest SussexCONCONSafe0NA
AshfieldNottinghamshireCONLABSafe1Midlands
AshfordKentCONCONLean0NA
Ashton-under-LyneGreater ManchesterLABLABSafe0NA
AylesburyBuckinghamshireCONLABLikely1NA
Ayr, Carrick and CumnockAyrshireSNPToss-Up1Scotland
BanburyOxfordshireCONLABLikely1NA
Bangor AberconwyGwyneddCONLABSafe1NA
BarkingGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
Barnsley NorthSouth YorkshireLABLABLikely0NA
Barnsley SouthSouth YorkshireLABLABSafe0NA
Barrow and FurnessCumbriaCONLABSafe1Northern England
Basildon and BillericayEssexCONCONSafe0NA
BasingstokeHampshireCONLABLikely1NA
BassetlawNottinghamshireCONLABLikely1NA
BathSomersetLIBLIBSafe0NA
Bathgate and LinlithgowLothianSNPLABLikely1NA
BatterseaGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
BeaconsfieldBuckinghamshireCONCONSafe0NA
Beckenham and PengeGreater LondonLABLABSafe0Southern England
BedfordBedfordshireLABLABSafe0Southern England
Belfast EastAntrimDUPALLLikely1NA
Belfast NorthAntrimSFASFASafe0NA
Belfast South and Mid DownAntrimSDLSDLSafe0NA
Belfast WestAntrimSFASFASafe0NA
Bermondsey and Old SouthwarkGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
Berwickshire, Roxburgh and SelkirkBordersCONCONSafe0Scotland
Bethnal Green and StepneyGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
Beverley and HoldernessEast Riding of YorkshireCONCONLean0NA
Bexhill and BattleEast SussexCONCONLikely0NA
Bexleyheath and CrayfordGreater LondonCONToss-Up1NA
Bicester and WoodstockOxfordshireCONCONLean0NA
BirkenheadMerseysideLABLABSafe0NA
Birmingham EdgbastonWest MidlandsLABLABSafe0NA
Birmingham ErdingtonWest MidlandsLABLABSafe0NA
Birmingham Hall Green and MoseleyWest MidlandsLABLABSafe0NA
Birmingham Hodge Hill and Solihull NorthWest MidlandsLABLABSafe0NA
Birmingham LadywoodWest MidlandsLABLABSafe0NA
Birmingham NorthfieldWest MidlandsCONLABSafe1Midlands
Birmingham Perry BarrWest MidlandsLABLABSafe0NA
Birmingham Selly OakWest MidlandsLABLABSafe0NA
Birmingham YardleyWest MidlandsLABLABSafe0NA
Bishop AucklandDurhamCONLABSafe1Northern England
BlackburnLancashireLABLABSafe0NA
Blackley and Middleton SouthGreater ManchesterLABLABSafe0NA
Blackpool North and FleetwoodLancashireCONLABSafe1NA
Blackpool SouthLancashireCONLABSafe1Northern England
Blaenau Gwent and RhymneyGwentLABLABSafe0NA
Blaydon and ConsettDurhamLABLABSafe0Northern England
Blyth and AshingtonNorthumberlandLABLABSafe0NA
Bognor Regis and LittlehamptonWest SussexCONCONSafe0NA
BolsoverDerbyshireCONLABSafe1Midlands
Bolton North EastGreater ManchesterCONLABSafe1Northern England
Bolton South and WalkdenGreater ManchesterLABLABSafe0NA
Bolton WestGreater ManchesterCONLABSafe1Northern England
BootleMerseysideLABLABSafe0NA
Boston and SkegnessLincolnshireCONCONSafe0NA
Bournemouth EastDorsetCONLABSafe1Southern England
Bournemouth WestDorsetCONLABSafe1Southern England
BracknellBerkshireCONLABLean1NA
Bradford EastWest YorkshireLABLABSafe0NA
Bradford SouthWest YorkshireLABLABSafe0Northern England
Bradford WestWest YorkshireLABLABSafe0NA
BraintreeEssexCONCONSafe0NA
Brecon, Radnor and Cwm TawePowysCONCONLean0NA
Brent EastGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
Brent WestGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
Brentford and IsleworthGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
Brentwood and OngarEssexCONCONSafe0NA
BridgendMid GlamorganCONLABSafe1NA
BridgwaterSomersetCONCONLikely0NA
Bridlington and the WoldsEast Riding of YorkshireCONCONSafe0NA
Brigg and ImminghamLincolnshireCONCONSafe0NA
Brighton Kemptown and PeacehavenEast SussexLABLABSafe0NA
Brighton PavilionEast SussexGREGRESafe0NA
Bristol CentralBristolLABLABSafe0NA
Bristol EastBristolLABLABSafe0NA
Bristol North EastBristolLABLABSafe0NA
Bristol North WestBristolLABLABSafe0NA
Bristol SouthBristolLABLABSafe0NA
Broadland and FakenhamNorfolkCONCONLikely0NA
Bromley and Biggin HillGreater LondonCONLABLean1NA
BromsgroveWorcestershireCONCONSafe0NA
BroxbourneHertfordshireCONCONLikely0NA
BroxtoweNottinghamshireCONLABSafe1Midlands
Buckingham and BletchleyBuckinghamshireCONLABLikely1NA
BurnleyLancashireCONLABSafe1Northern England
Burton and UttoxeterStaffordshireCONLABLean1NA
Bury NorthGreater ManchesterCONLABSafe1Northern England
Bury SouthGreater ManchesterCONLABSafe1Northern England
Bury St Edmunds and StowmarketSuffolkCONCONSafe0NA
CaerfyrddinDyfedCONPLCLean1NA
CaerphillyGwentLABLABSafe0NA
Caithness, Sutherland and Easter RossHighlands and IslandsSNPLIBLikely1Scotland
Calder ValleyWest YorkshireCONLABSafe1Northern England
Camborne and RedruthCornwallCONLABSafe1Southern England
CambridgeCambridgeshireLABLABSafe0NA
Cannock ChaseStaffordshireCONCONSafe0NA
CanterburyKentLABLABSafe0Southern England
Cardiff EastSouth GlamorganLABLABSafe0NA
Cardiff NorthMid GlamorganLABLABSafe0NA
Cardiff South and PenarthSouth GlamorganLABLABSafe0NA
Cardiff WestMid GlamorganLABLABSafe0NA
CarlisleCumbriaCONLABSafe1NA
Carshalton and WallingtonGreater LondonCONLIBSafe1Southern England
Castle PointEssexCONCONSafe0NA
Central AyrshireAyrshireSNPToss-Up0Scotland
Central DevonDevonCONLABLean1NA
Central Suffolk and North IpswichSuffolkCONCONLikely0NA
Ceredigion PreseliDyfedPLCPLCLikely0NA
Chatham and AylesfordKentCONCONLikely0NA
CheadleGreater ManchesterCONLIBSafe1Northern England
ChelmsfordEssexCONCONLean0NA
Chelsea and FulhamGreater LondonCONLABSafe1Southern England
CheltenhamGloucestershireCONLIBSafe1Southern England
Chesham and AmershamBuckinghamshireCONCONSafe0NA
Chester North and NestonCheshireLABLABSafe0NA
Chester South and EddisburyCheshireCONCONLikely0NA
ChesterfieldDerbyshireLABLABSafe0Midlands
ChichesterWest SussexCONCONSafe0NA
Chingford and Woodford GreenGreater LondonCONLABSafe1Southern England
ChippenhamWiltshireCONCONLikely0NA
Chipping BarnetGreater LondonCONLABSafe1Southern England
ChorleyLancashireSKRSKRSafe0NA
ChristchurchDorsetCONCONSafe0NA
Cities of London and WestminsterGreater LondonCONLABSafe1Southern England
ClactonEssexCONCONSafe0NA
Clapham and Brixton HillGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
Clwyd EastClwydCONLABSafe1NA
Clwyd NorthClwydCONLABSafe1NA
Coatbridge and BellshillLanarkshireSNPLABSafe1Scotland
ColchesterEssexCONLABSafe1Southern England
Colne ValleyWest YorkshireCONLABSafe1Northern England
CongletonCheshireCONCONLikely0NA
Corby and East NorthamptonshireNorthamptonshireCONLABSafe1Midlands
Coventry EastWest MidlandsLABLABSafe0NA
Coventry North WestWest MidlandsLABLABSafe0Midlands
Coventry SouthWest MidlandsLABLABSafe0Midlands
Cowdenbeath and KirkcaldyFifeSNPLABSafe1Scotland
Cramlington and KillingworthNorthumberlandLABLABSafe0Northern England
CrawleyWest SussexCONLABSafe1Southern England
Crewe and NantwichCheshireCONLABSafe1Northern England
Croydon EastGreater LondonLABLABSafe0Southern England
Croydon SouthGreater LondonCONLABLikely1NA
Croydon WestGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
Cumbernauld and KirkintillochDunbartonshireSNPLABLikely1NA
Dagenham and RainhamGreater LondonLABLABSafe0Southern England
DarlingtonDurhamCONLABSafe1Northern England
DartfordKentCONToss-Up1NA
DaventryNorthamptonshireCONCONSafe0NA
Derby NorthDerbyshireCONLABSafe1Midlands
Derby SouthDerbyshireLABLABSafe0NA
Derbyshire DalesDerbyshireCONCONLean0NA
Dewsbury and BatleyWest YorkshireLABLABSafe0NA
Didcot and WantageOxfordshireCONToss-Up1Southern England
Doncaster CentralSouth YorkshireLABLABSafe0Northern England
Doncaster East and the Isle of AxholmeSouth YorkshireCONLABSafe1NA
Doncaster NorthSouth YorkshireLABLABSafe0Northern England
Dorking and HorleySurreyCONToss-Up1NA
Dover and DealKentCONLABLikely1NA
Droitwich and EveshamWorcestershireCONCONSafe0NA
DudleyWest MidlandsCONToss-Up1NA
Dulwich and West NorwoodGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
Dumfries and GallowayDumfries and GallowayCONCONLean0Scotland
Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and TweeddaleDumfries and GallowayCONCONLikely0Scotland
Dundee CentralTaysideSNPToss-Up0NA
Dunfermline and DollarFifeSNPLABLikely1NA
Dunstable and Leighton BuzzardBedfordshireCONToss-Up1NA
Durham, City OfDurhamLABLABSafe0NA
Dwyfor MeirionnyddClwydPLCPLCSafe0NA
Ealing Central and ActonGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
Ealing NorthGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
Ealing SouthallGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
Earley and WoodleyBerkshireCONLABSafe1Southern England
EasingtonDurhamLABLABSafe0NA
East AntrimAntrimDUPDUPLikely0NA
East Grinstead and UckfieldEast SussexCONCONSafe0NA
East HamGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
East HampshireHampshireCONCONSafe0NA
East Kilbride and StrathavenLanarkshireSNPLABLikely1NA
East LondonderryLondonderryDUPDUPSafe0NA
East RenfrewshireRenfrewshireSNPToss-Up0Scotland
East SurreySurreyCONCONSafe0NA
East ThanetKentCONLABSafe1Southern England
East WiltshireWiltshireCONCONSafe0NA
East Worthing and ShorehamWest SussexCONLABSafe1Southern England
EastbourneEast SussexCONLIBSafe1Southern England
EastleighHampshireCONLIBLean1Southern England
Edinburgh East and MusselburghLothianSNPLABLikely1NA
Edinburgh North and LeithLothianSNPLABLikely1NA
Edinburgh SouthLothianLABLABSafe0NA
Edinburgh South WestLothianSNPToss-Up0NA
Edinburgh WestLothianLIBLIBLikely0Scotland
Edmonton and Winchmore HillGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
Ellesmere Port and BromboroughCheshireLABLABSafe0NA
Eltham and ChislehurstGreater LondonCONLABSafe1Southern England
Ely and East CambridgeshireCambridgeshireCONCONLean0NA
Enfield NorthGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
Epping ForestEssexCONCONSafe0NA
Epsom and EwellSurreyCONCONLean0NA
ErewashDerbyshireCONLABSafe1NA
Erith and ThamesmeadGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
Esher and WaltonSurreyCONLIBSafe1Southern England
ExeterDevonLABLABSafe0NA
Exmouth and Exeter EastDevonCONCONSafe0Southern England
FalkirkStirlingshireSNPSNPLikely0NA
Fareham and WaterloovilleHampshireCONCONSafe0NA
Farnham and BordonHampshireCONCONLikely0NA
Faversham and Mid KentKentCONCONSafe0NA
Feltham and HestonGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
Fermanagh and South TyroneFermanaghSFASFALean0NA
Filton and Bradley StokeGloucestershireCONLABSafe1Southern England
Finchley and Golders GreenGreater LondonCONLABLikely1Southern England
Folkestone and HytheKentCONLABLean1NA
Forest of DeanGloucestershireCONToss-Up1NA
FoyleLondonderrySDLSDLSafe0NA
Frome and East SomersetSomersetCONLABLikely1NA
FyldeLancashireCONCONLikely0NA
GainsboroughLincolnshireCONCONSafe0NA
Gateshead Central and WhickhamTyne and WearLABLABSafe0NA
GedlingNottinghamshireCONLABSafe1Midlands
Gillingham and RainhamKentCONToss-Up0NA
Glasgow EastGlasgowSNPLABSafe1Scotland
Glasgow NorthGlasgowSNPLABSafe1Scotland
Glasgow North EastGlasgowSNPLABSafe1Scotland
Glasgow SouthGlasgowSNPLABSafe1NA
Glasgow South WestGlasgowSNPLABSafe1Scotland
Glasgow WestGlasgowSNPLABLikely1NA
Glastonbury and SomertonSomersetCONCONLikely0NA
Glenrothes and Mid FifeFifeSNPLABLikely1NA
GloucesterGloucestershireCONLABSafe1Southern England
Godalming and AshSurreyCONToss-Up1NA
Goole and PocklingtonEast Riding of YorkshireCONCONSafe0NA
Gordon and BuchanGrampianCONCONLikely0Scotland
Gorton and DentonGreater ManchesterLABLABSafe0NA
GosportHampshireCONCONSafe0NA
GowerWest GlamorganLABLABSafe0NA
Grantham and BourneLincolnshireCONCONSafe0NA
GraveshamKentCONToss-Up0NA
Great Grimsby and CleethorpesLincolnshireCONLABSafe1Midlands
Great YarmouthNorfolkCONCONLikely0NA
Greenwich and WoolwichGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
GuildfordSurreyCONLIBSafe1Southern England
Hackney North and Stoke NewingtonGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
Hackney South and ShoreditchGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
HalesowenWest MidlandsCONLABLikely1NA
HalifaxWest YorkshireLABLABSafe0Northern England
Hamble ValleyHampshireCONCONSafe0NA
Hamilton and Clyde ValleyLanarkshireSNPLABSafe1NA
Hammersmith and ChiswickGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
Hampstead and HighgateGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
Harborough, Oadby and WigstonLeicestershireCONLABLean1NA
HarlowEssexCONCONLean0NA
Harpenden and BerkhamstedHertfordshireCONCONLikely0NA
Harrogate and KnaresboroughNorth YorkshireCONLIBLikely1Northern England
Harrow EastGreater LondonCONLABSafe1Southern England
Harrow WestGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
HartlepoolDurhamLABLABSafe0Northern England
Harwich and North EssexEssexCONToss-Up0NA
Hastings and RyeEast SussexCONLABSafe1Southern England
HavantHampshireCONCONSafe0NA
Hayes and HarlingtonGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
Hazel GroveGreater ManchesterCONLIBLikely1Northern England
Hemel HempsteadHertfordshireCONLABLikely1NA
HendonGreater LondonCONLABSafe1Southern England
Henley and ThameOxfordshireCONToss-Up0NA
Hereford and South HerefordshireHerefordshireCONCONSafe0NA
Herne Bay and SandwichKentCONCONLikely0NA
Hertford and StortfordHertfordshireCONToss-Up1NA
HertsmereHertfordshireCONCONSafe0NA
HexhamNorthumberlandCONLABSafe1NA
Heywood and Middleton NorthGreater ManchesterLABLABSafe0Northern England
High PeakDerbyshireCONLABSafe1Midlands
Hinckley and BosworthLeicestershireCONCONSafe0NA
HitchinHertfordshireCONLABSafe1NA
Holborn and St PancrasGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
Honiton and SidmouthDevonCONCONSafe0NA
Hornchurch and UpminsterGreater LondonCONCONSafe0NA
Hornsey and Friern BarnetGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
HorshamWest SussexCONCONLikely0NA
Houghton and Sunderland SouthTyne and WearLABLABSafe0Northern England
Hove and PortsladeEast SussexLABLABSafe0NA
HuddersfieldWest YorkshireLABLABSafe0NA
HuntingdonCambridgeshireCONCONLikely0NA
HyndburnLancashireCONLABSafe1Northern England
Ilford NorthGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
Ilford SouthGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
Inverclyde and Renfrewshire WestRenfrewshireSNPLABSafe1NA
Inverness, Skye and West Ross-shireHighlands and IslandsSNPSNPLikely0NA
IpswichSuffolkCONLABSafe1Southern England
Isle of Wight EastIsle of WightCONToss-Up0NA
Isle of Wight WestIsle of WightCONToss-Up1NA
Islington NorthGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
Islington South and FinsburyGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
Jarrow and Gateshead EastTyne and WearLABLABSafe0NA
Keighley and IlkleyWest YorkshireCONLABSafe1Northern England
Kenilworth and SouthamWarwickshireCONCONLikely0NA
Kensington and BayswaterGreater LondonLABLABSafe0Southern England
KetteringNorthamptonshireCONToss-Up0NA
Kilmarnock and LoudounAyrshireSNPToss-Up0NA
Kingston and SurbitonGreater LondonLIBLIBSafe0NA
Kingston upon Hull EastEast Riding of YorkshireLABLABSafe0Northern England
Kingston upon Hull North and CottinghamEast Riding of YorkshireLABLABSafe0NA
Kingston upon Hull West and HaltempriceEast Riding of YorkshireCONLABSafe1Northern England
Kingswinford and South StaffordshireStaffordshireCONCONSafe0NA
KnowsleyMerseysideLABLABSafe0NA
Lagan ValleyAntrimDUPDUPLikely0NA
Lancaster and WyreLancashireCONLABSafe1Northern England
Leeds Central and HeadingleyWest YorkshireLABLABSafe0NA
Leeds EastWest YorkshireLABLABSafe0Northern England
Leeds North EastWest YorkshireLABLABSafe0NA
Leeds North WestWest YorkshireCONLABSafe1Northern England
Leeds SouthWest YorkshireLABLABSafe0NA
Leeds South West and MorleyWest YorkshireCONLABSafe1Northern England
Leeds West and PudseyWest YorkshireLABLABSafe0NA
Leicester EastLeicestershireLABLABSafe0NA
Leicester SouthLeicestershireLABLABSafe0NA
Leicester WestLeicestershireLABLABSafe0NA
Leigh and AthertonGreater ManchesterCONLABSafe1Northern England
LewesEast SussexCONLIBSafe1Southern England
Lewisham EastGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
Lewisham NorthGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
Lewisham West and East DulwichGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
Leyton and WansteadGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
LichfieldStaffordshireCONCONSafe0NA
LincolnLincolnshireCONLABSafe1Midlands
Liverpool GarstonMerseysideLABLABSafe0NA
Liverpool RiversideMerseysideLABLABSafe0NA
Liverpool WaltonMerseysideLABLABSafe0NA
Liverpool WavertreeMerseysideLABLABSafe0NA
Liverpool West DerbyMerseysideLABLABSafe0NA
LivingstonLothianSNPLABLikely1NA
LlanelliDyfedLABLABSafe0NA
Lothian EastLothianSNPLABSafe1Scotland
LoughboroughLeicestershireCONLABSafe1Midlands
Louth and HorncastleLincolnshireCONCONSafe0NA
LowestoftSuffolkCONToss-Up1NA
Luton NorthBedfordshireLABLABSafe0NA
Luton South and South BedfordshireBedfordshireLABLABSafe0NA
MacclesfieldCheshireCONLABSafe1NA
MaidenheadBerkshireCONCONLikely0NA
Maidstone and MallingKentCONCONLikely0NA
MakerfieldGreater ManchesterLABLABSafe0NA
MaldonEssexCONCONSafe0NA
Manchester CentralGreater ManchesterLABLABSafe0NA
Manchester RusholmeGreater ManchesterLABLABSafe0NA
Manchester WithingtonGreater ManchesterLABLABSafe0NA
MansfieldNottinghamshireCONCONLean0NA
Melksham and DevizesWiltshireCONCONLikely0NA
Melton and SystonLeicestershireCONCONLikely0NA
Meriden and Solihull EastWest MidlandsCONCONLikely0NA
Merthyr Tydfil and AberdareMid GlamorganLABLABSafe0NA
Mid and South PembrokeshireDyfedCONLABLikely1NA
Mid BedfordshireBedfordshireCONCONLikely0NA
Mid BuckinghamshireBuckinghamshireCONCONSafe0NA
Mid CheshireCheshireCONLABSafe1Northern England
Mid DerbyshireDerbyshireCONToss-Up1NA
Mid Dorset and North PooleDorsetCONCONLikely0NA
Mid DunbartonshireDunbartonshireSNPLIBLean1Scotland
Mid LeicestershireLeicestershireCONCONLikely0NA
Mid NorfolkNorfolkCONCONSafe0NA
Mid SussexWest SussexCONToss-Up0NA
Mid UlsterTyroneSFASFASafe0NA
Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastNorth YorkshireLABLABSafe0NA
Middlesbrough South and East ClevelandNorth YorkshireCONLABSafe1NA
MidlothianLothianSNPLABSafe1Scotland
Milton Keynes CentralBuckinghamshireCONLABSafe1Southern England
Milton Keynes NorthBuckinghamshireCONLABSafe1Southern England
Mitcham and MordenGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
MonmouthshireGwentCONToss-Up0NA
Montgomeryshire and GlyndwrPowysCONCONLikely0NA
Moray West, Nairn and StrathspeyHighlands and IslandsSNPToss-Up0Scotland
Morecambe and LunesdaleLancashireCONLABLikely1NA
Motherwell, Wishaw and CarlukeLanarkshireSNPLABSafe1Scotland
Na h-Eileanan an IarHighlands and IslandsSNPLABSafe1Scotland
Neath and Swansea EastWest GlamorganLABLABSafe0NA
New Forest EastHampshireCONCONSafe0NA
New Forest WestHampshireCONCONSafe0NA
NewarkNottinghamshireCONCONLikely0NA
NewburyBerkshireCONToss-Up0NA
Newcastle upon Tyne Central and WestTyne and WearLABLABSafe0NA
Newcastle upon Tyne East and WallsendTyne and WearLABLABSafe0NA
Newcastle upon Tyne NorthTyne and WearLABLABSafe0NA
Newcastle-under-LymeStaffordshireCONLABSafe1Midlands
Newport EastGwentLABLABSafe0NA
Newport West and IslwynGwentLABLABSafe0NA
Newry and ArmaghArmaghSFASFASafe0NA
Newton AbbotDevonCONCONLikely0NA
Newton Aycliffe and SpennymoorDurhamCONLABSafe1Northern England
Normanton and HemsworthWest YorkshireLABLABSafe0Northern England
North AntrimAntrimDUPDUPSafe0NA
North Ayrshire and ArranAyrshireSNPSNPLean0NA
North BedfordshireBedfordshireCONCONSafe0NA
North CornwallCornwallCONCONLikely0NA
North CotswoldsGloucestershireCONCONSafe0NA
North DevonDevonCONCONLikely0NA
North DorsetDorsetCONCONSafe0NA
North DownDownALLALLSafe0NA
North DurhamDurhamLABLABSafe0NA
North East CambridgeshireCambridgeshireCONCONSafe0NA
North East DerbyshireDerbyshireCONLABLikely1NA
North East FifeFifeSNPLIBLikely1Scotland
North East HampshireHampshireCONCONSafe0NA
North East HertfordshireHertfordshireCONToss-Up1NA
North East Somerset and HanhamSomersetCONLABLikely1NA
North HerefordshireHerefordshireCONCONSafe0NA
North NorfolkNorfolkCONCONLikely0NA
North NorthumberlandNorthumberlandCONToss-Up1NA
North ShropshireShropshireCONCONLikely0NA
North SomersetSomersetCONLABLikely1NA
North Warwickshire and BedworthWarwickshireCONCONLikely0NA
North West CambridgeshireCambridgeshireCONCONLean0NA
North West EssexEssexCONCONSafe0NA
North West HampshireHampshireCONCONSafe0NA
North West LeicestershireLeicestershireCONCONLikely0NA
North West NorfolkNorfolkCONCONSafe0NA
Northampton NorthNorthamptonshireCONLABSafe1Midlands
Northampton SouthNorthamptonshireCONLABLikely1NA
Norwich NorthNorfolkCONLABSafe1Southern England
Norwich SouthNorfolkLABLABSafe0NA
Nottingham EastNottinghamshireLABLABSafe0NA
Nottingham North and KimberleyNottinghamshireLABLABSafe0Midlands
Nottingham SouthNottinghamshireLABLABSafe0NA
NuneatonWarwickshireCONLABLikely1NA
Old Bexley and SidcupGreater LondonCONCONLikely0NA
Oldham East and SaddleworthGreater ManchesterLABLABSafe0Northern England
Oldham West, Chadderton and RoytonGreater ManchesterLABLABSafe0NA
Orkney and ShetlandHighlands and IslandsLIBLIBSafe0Scotland
OrpingtonGreater LondonCONCONSafe0NA
Ossett and Denby DaleWest YorkshireCONLABSafe1NA
Oxford EastOxfordshireLABLABSafe0NA
Oxford West and AbingdonOxfordshireLIBLIBSafe0NA
Paisley and Renfrewshire NorthRenfrewshireSNPLABLikely1NA
Paisley and Renfrewshire SouthRenfrewshireSNPLABLikely1NA
PeckhamGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
Pendle and ClitheroeLancashireCONLABLikely1NA
Penistone and StocksbridgeSouth YorkshireCONLABSafe1Northern England
Penrith and SolwayCumbriaCONLABLikely1NA
Perth and Kinross-shirePerthshireSNPToss-Up0Scotland
PeterboroughCambridgeshireCONLABSafe1Southern England
Plymouth Moor ViewDevonCONLABLikely1NA
Plymouth Sutton and DevonportDevonLABLABSafe0NA
Pontefract, Castleford and KnottingleyWest YorkshireLABLABSafe0Northern England
PontypriddMid GlamorganLABLABSafe0NA
PooleDorsetCONCONLikely0NA
Poplar and LimehouseGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
Portsmouth NorthHampshireCONCONLean0NA
Portsmouth SouthHampshireLABLABSafe0NA
PrestonLancashireLABLABSafe0NA
PutneyGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
Queen’s Park and Maida ValeGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
Rawmarsh and ConisbroughSouth YorkshireLABLABSafe0Northern England
Rayleigh and WickfordEssexCONCONSafe0NA
Reading CentralBerkshireLABLABSafe0NA
Reading West and Mid BerkshireBerkshireCONToss-Up0NA
RedcarNorth YorkshireCONLABSafe1Northern England
RedditchWorcestershireCONCONLikely0NA
ReigateSurreyCONCONLikely0NA
Rhondda and OgmoreMid GlamorganLABLABSafe0NA
Ribble ValleyLancashireCONToss-Up1NA
Richmond and NorthallertonNorth YorkshireCONCONSafe0NA
Richmond ParkGreater LondonLIBLIBSafe0NA
RochdaleGreater ManchesterLABLABSafe0NA
Rochester and StroodKentCONLABLean1NA
RomfordGreater LondonCONCONLikely0NA
Romsey and Southampton NorthHampshireCONCONLikely0NA
Rossendale and DarwenLancashireCONLABSafe1Northern England
Rother ValleySouth YorkshireCONLABSafe1Northern England
RotherhamSouth YorkshireLABLABSafe0Northern England
RugbyWarwickshireCONLABLikely1NA
Ruislip, Northwood and PinnerGreater LondonCONLABLean1NA
Runcorn and HelsbyCheshireLABLABSafe0NA
Runnymede and WeybridgeSurreyCONCONLean0NA
RushcliffeNottinghamshireCONLABSafe1Midlands
RutherglenLanarkshireSNPLABSafe1Scotland
Rutland and StamfordRutlandCONCONSafe0NA
SalfordGreater ManchesterLABLABSafe0NA
SalisburyWiltshireCONCONLikely0NA
Scarborough and WhitbyNorth YorkshireCONLABSafe1NA
ScunthorpeLincolnshireCONLABSafe1Midlands
Sefton CentralMerseysideLABLABSafe0NA
SelbyNorth YorkshireCONLABLikely1NA
SevenoaksKentCONCONSafe0NA
Sheffield Brightside and HillsboroughSouth YorkshireLABLABSafe0NA
Sheffield CentralSouth YorkshireLABLABSafe0NA
Sheffield HallamSouth YorkshireLABLABSafe0Northern England
Sheffield HeeleySouth YorkshireLABLABSafe0NA
Sheffield South EastSouth YorkshireLABLABSafe0NA
Sherwood ForestNottinghamshireCONToss-Up1NA
ShipleyWest YorkshireCONLABSafe1Northern England
ShrewsburyShropshireCONLABSafe1Midlands
Sittingbourne and SheppeyKentCONCONSafe0NA
Skipton and RiponNorth YorkshireCONCONLikely0NA
Sleaford and North HykehamLincolnshireCONCONSafe0NA
SloughBerkshireLABLABSafe0NA
SmethwickWest MidlandsLABLABSafe0NA
Solihull West and ShirleyWest MidlandsCONCONLikely0NA
South AntrimAntrimDUPUUPLean1NA
South Basildon and East ThurrockEssexCONCONSafe0NA
South CambridgeshireCambridgeshireCONLIBSafe1Southern England
South CotswoldsGloucestershireCONCONLikely0NA
South DerbyshireDerbyshireCONCONLean0NA
South DevonDevonCONToss-Up0NA
South DorsetDorsetCONCONLean0NA
South DownDownSFASFALikely0NA
South East CornwallCornwallCONCONLikely0NA
South Holland and the DeepingsLincolnshireCONCONSafe0NA
South LeicestershireLeicestershireCONCONSafe0NA
South NorfolkNorfolkCONToss-Up0NA
South NorthamptonshireNorthamptonshireCONCONSafe0NA
South RibbleLancashireCONLABSafe1Northern England
South ShieldsTyne and WearLABLABSafe0NA
South ShropshireShropshireCONCONSafe0NA
South SuffolkSuffolkCONCONSafe0NA
South West DevonDevonCONCONLikely0NA
South West HertfordshireHertfordshireCONCONSafe0NA
South West NorfolkNorfolkCONCONSafe0NA
South West WiltshireWiltshireCONCONLikely0NA
Southampton ItchenHampshireCONLABSafe1Southern England
Southampton TestHampshireLABLABSafe0NA
Southend East and RochfordEssexCONLABLikely1NA
Southend West and LeighEssexCONLABLean1NA
Southgate and Wood GreenGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
SouthportMerseysideCONLABSafe1Northern England
SpelthorneSurreyCONCONLikely0NA
Spen ValleyWest YorkshireCONLABSafe1Northern England
St AlbansHertfordshireLIBLIBSafe0NA
St Austell and NewquayCornwallCONLABLikely1NA
St Helens NorthMerseysideLABLABSafe0NA
St Helens South and WhistonMerseysideLABLABSafe0NA
St IvesCornwallCONLIBSafe1Southern England
St Neots and Mid CambridgeshireCambridgeshireCONToss-Up1NA
StaffordStaffordshireCONLABLikely1NA
Staffordshire MoorlandsStaffordshireCONCONLikely0NA
Stalybridge and HydeGreater ManchesterLABLABSafe0Northern England
StevenageHertfordshireCONLABSafe1Southern England
Stirling and StrathallanStirlingshireSNPSNPLikely0NA
StockportGreater ManchesterLABLABSafe0NA
Stockton NorthDurhamLABLABSafe0Northern England
Stockton WestDurhamCONLABSafe1NA
Stoke-on-Trent CentralStaffordshireCONLABSafe1Midlands
Stoke-on-Trent NorthStaffordshireCONLABSafe1Midlands
Stoke-on-Trent SouthStaffordshireCONToss-Up1NA
Stone, Great Wyrley and PenkridgeStaffordshireCONCONSafe0NA
StourbridgeWest MidlandsCONToss-Up0NA
StrangfordDownDUPDUPLikely0NA
Stratford and BowGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
Stratford-on-AvonWarwickshireCONCONSafe0NA
Streatham and Croydon NorthGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
Stretford and UrmstonGreater ManchesterLABLABSafe0NA
StroudGloucestershireCONLABSafe1Southern England
Suffolk CoastalSuffolkCONCONLean0NA
Sunderland CentralTyne and WearLABLABSafe0Northern England
Surrey HeathSurreyCONCONLikely0NA
Sussex WealdEast SussexCONCONSafe0NA
Sutton and CheamGreater LondonCONLIBLean1Southern England
Sutton ColdfieldWest MidlandsCONCONLikely0NA
Swansea WestWest GlamorganLABLABSafe0NA
Swindon NorthWiltshireCONLABLikely1NA
Swindon SouthWiltshireCONLABSafe1Southern England
TamworthStaffordshireCONCONSafe0NA
TattonCheshireCONCONLean0NA
Taunton and WellingtonSomersetCONLIBLikely1Southern England
TelfordShropshireCONLABLikely1NA
TewkesburyGloucestershireCONCONLikely0NA
The WrekinShropshireCONCONLikely0NA
Thirsk and MaltonNorth YorkshireCONCONSafe0NA
Thornbury and YateGloucestershireCONCONLikely0NA
ThurrockEssexCONLABLikely1NA
Tipton and WednesburyWest MidlandsCONLABSafe1Midlands
Tiverton and MineheadSomersetCONCONSafe0NA
TonbridgeKentCONCONSafe0NA
TootingGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
TorbayDevonCONCONSafe0NA
TorfaenGwentLABLABSafe0NA
Torridge and TavistockDevonCONCONSafe0NA
TottenhamGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
Truro and FalmouthCornwallCONLABSafe1Southern England
Tunbridge WellsKentCONCONLikely0NA
TwickenhamGreater LondonLIBLIBSafe0NA
TynemouthTyne and WearLABLABSafe0NA
Upper BannArmaghDUPDUPLikely0NA
Uxbridge and South RuislipGreater LondonCONLABSafe1Southern England
Vale of GlamorganSouth GlamorganCONLABSafe1NA
Vauxhall and Camberwell GreenGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
Wakefield and RothwellWest YorkshireCONLABSafe1Northern England
WallaseyMerseysideLABLABSafe0NA
Walsall and BloxwichWest MidlandsCONLABSafe1Midlands
WalthamstowGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
Warrington NorthCheshireLABLABSafe0Northern England
Warrington SouthCheshireLABLABSafe0Northern England
Warwick and LeamingtonWarwickshireLABLABSafe0Midlands
Washington and Gateshead SouthTyne and WearLABLABSafe0NA
WatfordHertfordshireCONLABSafe1Southern England
Waveney ValleySuffolkCONCONSafe0NA
Weald of KentKentCONCONSafe0NA
Wellingborough and RushdenNorthamptonshireCONToss-Up0NA
Wells and Mendip HillsSomersetCONCONLikely0NA
Welwyn HatfieldHertfordshireCONLABSafe1NA
West Aberdeenshire and KincardineGrampianCONCONLikely0Scotland
West BromwichWest MidlandsCONLABSafe1Midlands
West DorsetDorsetCONToss-Up0NA
West DunbartonshireDunbartonshireSNPLABLikely1NA
West Ham and BecktonGreater LondonLABLABSafe0NA
West LancashireLancashireLABLABSafe0NA
West SuffolkSuffolkCONCONSafe0NA
West TyroneTyroneSFASFASafe0NA
West WorcestershireWorcestershireCONCONSafe0NA
Westmorland and LonsdaleCumbriaCONLIBSafe1Northern England
Weston-Super-MareSomersetCONLABLikely1NA
Wetherby and EasingwoldWest YorkshireCONCONSafe0NA
Whitehaven and WorkingtonCumbriaCONLABSafe1Northern England
Widnes and HalewoodCheshireLABLABSafe0NA
WiganGreater ManchesterLABLABSafe0NA
WimbledonGreater LondonCONLIBLikely1Southern England
WinchesterHampshireCONLIBLikely1Southern England
WindsorBerkshireCONCONLikely0NA
Wirral WestMerseysideLABLABSafe0Northern England
WithamEssexCONCONSafe0NA
WitneyOxfordshireCONCONLikely0NA
WokingSurreyCONToss-Up1Southern England
WokinghamBerkshireCONCONLean0NA
Wolverhampton North EastWest MidlandsCONLABSafe1Midlands
Wolverhampton South EastWest MidlandsLABLABSafe0Midlands
Wolverhampton WestWest MidlandsCONLABSafe1Midlands
WorcesterWorcestershireCONLABSafe1Midlands
Worsley and EcclesGreater ManchesterLABLABSafe0Northern England
Worthing WestWest SussexCONLABLikely1NA
WrexhamClwydCONLABSafe1NA
WycombeBuckinghamshireCONLABSafe1Southern England
Wyre ForestWorcestershireCONCONSafe0NA
Wythenshawe and Sale EastGreater ManchesterLABLABSafe0NA
YeovilSomersetCONCONLikely0NA
Ynys MônGwyneddCONLABLikely1NA
York CentralNorth YorkshireLABLABSafe0NA
York OuterNorth YorkshireCONLABSafe1NA

Abbreviations used in the table: CON = Conservative, LAB = Labour Party, LIB = Liberal Democrats, GRE = Green Party, UKI = UK Independence Party (UKIP), SNP = Scottish National Party (SNP), PLC = Plaid Cymru – The Party of Wales, REF = Reform UK, SDP = Social Democratic Party, ALL = Alliance – Alliance Party of Northern Ireland, SFA = Sinn Féin, DUP = Democratic Unionist Party – D.U.P., SDL = SDLP (Social Democratic & Labour Party)