Forecast Map
Our forecast uses the polls and notional results for the 2019 general election to predict the outcome in each of the 650 constituencies at the next election. It is exactly the same as the nowcast, but before simulating the election it tries to estimate how the polls will change between now and the election. It is built on the assumption that polls are impossible to predict and that each party’s vote share may go up or down before the election
The forecast is our prefered model for predicting the outcome of the election as it takes account of potential changes in the polls.
We classify seats in to four categories:
- Safe seats are very unlikely to be won by another party. Seats are considered safe if the model thinks they will be won by the same party at least 90% of the time.
- It is improbable that a likely seat is won by another party. Seats are considered likely if the model thinks they will be won by the same party at least 80% of the time.
- Seats that lean to one party may be won by another party. Seats are considered to lean to one party if the model thinks they will be won by the same party at least 70% of the time (or 60% of the time if three parties win 10% of the vote).
- All other seats are described as toss-ups.
| Party | Toss-Up | Lean | Likely | Safe | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Labour | 17 | 41 | 305 | 363 | |
| Conservative | 24 | 55 | 102 | 181 | |
| Liberal Democrats | 2 | 10 | 21 | 33 | |
| Sinn Féin | 1 | 5 | 6 | ||
| DUP | 4 | 2 | 6 | ||
| SDLP | 2 | 2 | |||
| Plaid Cymru | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | |
| Alliance | 1 | 1 | 2 | ||
| Speaker | 1 | 1 | |||
| Green Party | 1 | 1 | |||
| SNP | 5 | 7 | 12 | ||
| Ulster Unionist Party | 1 | 1 | |||
| 39 | 39 |