South East England

South East England consists of the counties of Berkshire, Buckinghamshire, Hampshire, the Isle of Wight, Kent, Oxfordshire, Surrey and Sussex. It is solidly to the right of the country as a whole, in fact, all eight counties in the region voted more strongly for the Conservatives than the UK as whole in the 2019 election. This is pattern that has held since at least 1955.

The counties themselves do vary from the very blue (Kent, Hampshire, the Isle of Wight and West Sussex) to light blue East Sussex and Oxfordshire. Since 1955, the region has never had fewer than 48 Conservative MPs. This low came in 1966, when Labour won a solid majority nationwide and had 12 MPs in the South East. Labour were virtually wiped out in 1979 and did not recover until 1997.

This reflects a Labour vote that is very thinly spread, it can take a lot of votes to elect Labour MPs in the South East. In 2017 they won 29% of the vote but only 10% seats (8 Seats). This problem is even more apparent for the Lib Dems; who consistently win 20 to 25% of the vote in the South East but have struggled to convert that vote share in to seats. They rose as high as 8 seats in 2001 but then fell back later in that decade.

However, the Liberal Democrats are stronger at the local level and were for a time in the late 90’s the biggest party in local government in the South East. Their falling support during and after their coalition with the Tories (2010 to 2015) has been mostly reversed in recent years. They currently hold 854 council seats compared to the 1,214 for the Conservatives and 624 for Labour. The Conservatives remain the dominant party in the South East and hold 74 out of 83 seats in the House of Commons.

General Election Time Series

Seats Won in South East England 1955-2019

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Share of the Vote Won in South East England 1955-2019

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2019 General Election

Local Government Composition

Local Councils Held 1973-2023 in South East England

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Local Council Seats Held 1973-2023 in South East England

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Election Model Forecast for Next Election

Constituency	County	Notional Winner 2019	Forecast Winner	Classification	Forecast Party Change	Battleground
Aldershot	Hampshire	CON	CON	Lean	0	NA
Arundel and South Downs	West Sussex	CON	CON	Safe	0	NA
Ashford	Kent	CON	CON	Likely	0	NA
Aylesbury	Buckinghamshire	CON	LAB	Lean	1	NA
Banbury	Oxfordshire	CON	LAB	Lean	1	NA
Basingstoke	Hampshire	CON	LAB	Likely	1	NA
Beaconsfield	Buckinghamshire	CON	CON	Safe	0	NA
Bexhill and Battle	East Sussex	CON	CON	Safe	0	NA
Bicester and Woodstock	Oxfordshire	CON	CON	Lean	0	NA
Bognor Regis and Littlehampton	West Sussex	CON	CON	Safe	0	NA
Bracknell	Berkshire	CON		Toss-Up	1	NA
Brighton Kemptown and Peacehaven	East Sussex	LAB	LAB	Safe	0	NA
Brighton Pavilion	East Sussex	GRE	GRE	Safe	0	NA
Buckingham and Bletchley	Buckinghamshire	CON	LAB	Likely	1	NA
Canterbury	Kent	LAB	LAB	Safe	0	Southern England
Chatham and Aylesford	Kent	CON	CON	Safe	0	NA
Chesham and Amersham	Buckinghamshire	CON	CON	Safe	0	NA
Chichester	West Sussex	CON	CON	Safe	0	NA
Crawley	West Sussex	CON	LAB	Safe	1	Southern England
Dartford	Kent	CON		Toss-Up	0	NA
Didcot and Wantage	Oxfordshire	CON	LIB	Lean	1	Southern England
Dorking and Horley	Surrey	CON	LIB	Likely	1	NA
Dover and Deal	Kent	CON	LAB	Likely	1	NA
Earley and Woodley	Berkshire	CON	LAB	Likely	1	Southern England
East Grinstead and Uckfield	East Sussex	CON	CON	Safe	0	NA
East Hampshire	Hampshire	CON	CON	Safe	0	NA
East Surrey	Surrey	CON	CON	Safe	0	NA
East Thanet	Kent	CON	LAB	Safe	1	Southern England
East Worthing and Shoreham	West Sussex	CON	LAB	Safe	1	Southern England
Eastbourne	East Sussex	CON	LIB	Safe	1	Southern England
Eastleigh	Hampshire	CON	LIB	Likely	1	Southern England
Epsom and Ewell	Surrey	CON	CON	Likely	0	NA
Esher and Walton	Surrey	CON	LIB	Safe	1	Southern England
Fareham and Waterlooville	Hampshire	CON	CON	Safe	0	NA
Farnham and Bordon	Hampshire	CON	CON	Lean	0	NA
Faversham and Mid Kent	Kent	CON	CON	Safe	0	NA
Folkestone and Hythe	Kent	CON		Toss-Up	1	NA
Gillingham and Rainham	Kent	CON	CON	Lean	0	NA
Godalming and Ash	Surrey	CON	LIB	Likely	1	NA
Gosport	Hampshire	CON	CON	Safe	0	NA
Gravesham	Kent	CON		Toss-Up	0	NA
Guildford	Surrey	CON	LIB	Safe	1	Southern England
Hamble Valley	Hampshire	CON	CON	Safe	0	NA
Hastings and Rye	East Sussex	CON	LAB	Safe	1	Southern England
Havant	Hampshire	CON	CON	Safe	0	NA
Henley and Thame	Oxfordshire	CON		Toss-Up	1	NA
Herne Bay and Sandwich	Kent	CON	CON	Safe	0	NA
Horsham	West Sussex	CON	CON	Likely	0	NA
Hove and Portslade	East Sussex	LAB	LAB	Safe	0	NA
Isle of Wight East	Isle of Wight	CON	CON	Lean	0	NA
Isle of Wight West	Isle of Wight	CON		Toss-Up	0	NA
Lewes	East Sussex	CON	LIB	Safe	1	Southern England
Maidenhead	Berkshire	CON	CON	Likely	0	NA
Maidstone and Malling	Kent	CON	CON	Safe	0	NA
Mid Buckinghamshire	Buckinghamshire	CON	CON	Safe	0	NA
Mid Sussex	West Sussex	CON		Toss-Up	0	NA
Milton Keynes Central	Buckinghamshire	CON	LAB	Safe	1	Southern England
Milton Keynes North	Buckinghamshire	CON	LAB	Safe	1	Southern England
New Forest East	Hampshire	CON	CON	Safe	0	NA
New Forest West	Hampshire	CON	CON	Safe	0	NA
Newbury	Berkshire	CON		Toss-Up	1	NA
North East Hampshire	Hampshire	CON	CON	Safe	0	NA
North West Hampshire	Hampshire	CON	CON	Safe	0	NA
Oxford East	Oxfordshire	LAB	LAB	Safe	0	NA
Oxford West and Abingdon	Oxfordshire	LIB	LIB	Safe	0	NA
Portsmouth North	Hampshire	CON	CON	Likely	0	NA
Portsmouth South	Hampshire	LAB	LAB	Safe	0	NA
Reading Central	Berkshire	LAB	LAB	Safe	0	NA
Reading West and Mid Berkshire	Berkshire	CON	CON	Lean	0	NA
Reigate	Surrey	CON	CON	Likely	0	NA
Rochester and Strood	Kent	CON		Toss-Up	1	NA
Romsey and Southampton North	Hampshire	CON	CON	Likely	0	NA
Runnymede and Weybridge	Surrey	CON	CON	Likely	0	NA
Sevenoaks	Kent	CON	CON	Safe	0	NA
Sittingbourne and Sheppey	Kent	CON	CON	Safe	0	NA
Slough	Berkshire	LAB	LAB	Safe	0	NA
Southampton Itchen	Hampshire	CON	LAB	Safe	1	Southern England
Southampton Test	Hampshire	LAB	LAB	Safe	0	NA
Spelthorne	Surrey	CON	CON	Likely	0	NA
Surrey Heath	Surrey	CON	CON	Likely	0	NA
Sussex Weald	East Sussex	CON	CON	Safe	0	NA
Tonbridge	Kent	CON	CON	Safe	0	NA
Tunbridge Wells	Kent	CON	CON	Lean	0	NA
Weald of Kent	Kent	CON	CON	Safe	0	NA
Winchester	Hampshire	CON	LIB	Safe	1	Southern England
Windsor	Berkshire	CON	CON	Likely	0	NA
Witney	Oxfordshire	CON	CON	Likely	0	NA
Woking	Surrey	CON	LIB	Likely	1	Southern England
Wokingham	Berkshire	CON		Toss-Up	1	NA
Worthing West	West Sussex	CON	LAB	Likely	1	NA
Wycombe	Buckinghamshire	CON	LAB	Safe	1	Southern England

Abbreviations used in the table: CON = Conservative, LAB = Labour Party, LIB = Liberal Democrats, GRE = Green Party, UKI = UK Independence Party (UKIP), REF = Reform UK