West Midlands

The West Midlands Region consists of the counties of Herefordshire, Shropshire, Staffordshire, Warwickshire, West Midlands and Worcestershire (we will refer to the county of West Midlands as Greater Birmingham to avoid confusion with the region). Politically it has three distinct parts, central Birmingham, the close suburbs and Coventry (which are very red), the outer suburbs of Greater Birmingham and nearby towns (which are very competitive) and the rural counties that surround Greater Birmingham (which are very blue).

The rural parts of the West Midlands are very blue. Labour won just won seat in Herefordshire, Shropshire, Staffordshire, Warwickshire, and Worcestershire put together in 2019, whilst the Conservative held the remaining 30. This was an historical low point for Labour, particularly in Staffordshire. They held 9 seats as recently as 2005 and had not fallen below 4 in the 60 years before that election.

The most competitive part of the region is the Black Country, which is home to many marginal seats. The towns of Dudley, West Bromwich and Wolverhampton are fiercely fought over by the two big parties.

The West Midlands is not a strong region for the Liberal Democrats or for any other party. The big two tend to dominate in both vote share and seats won.

General Election Time Series

Seats Won in the West Midlands 1955-2019

Share of the Vote Won in the West Midlands1955-2019

2019 General Election

Seats Won in the West Midlands in 2019, by County

Share of the Vote Won in the West Midlands in 2019, by County

Share of Seats Won in the West Midlands in 2019, by County

Change in Vote Share and Seats Won in the West Midlands in 2019, by County

Local Government Composition

Local Councils Held 1973-2023 in the West Midlands

Local Council Seats Held 1973-2023 in the West Midlands

Election Model Forecast for Next Election

ConstituencyCountyNotional Winner 2019Forecast WinnerClassificationForecast Party ChangeBattleground
Aldridge-BrownhillsWest MidlandsCONCONSafe0NA
Birmingham EdgbastonWest MidlandsLABLABSafe0NA
Birmingham ErdingtonWest MidlandsLABLABSafe0NA
Birmingham Hall Green and MoseleyWest MidlandsLABLABSafe0NA
Birmingham Hodge Hill and Solihull NorthWest MidlandsLABLABSafe0NA
Birmingham LadywoodWest MidlandsLABLABSafe0NA
Birmingham NorthfieldWest MidlandsCONLABSafe1Midlands
Birmingham Perry BarrWest MidlandsLABLABSafe0NA
Birmingham Selly OakWest MidlandsLABLABSafe0NA
Birmingham YardleyWest MidlandsLABLABSafe0NA
Burton and UttoxeterStaffordshireCONLABLikely1NA
Cannock ChaseStaffordshireCONCONLikely0NA
Coventry EastWest MidlandsLABLABSafe0NA
Coventry North WestWest MidlandsLABLABSafe0Midlands
Coventry SouthWest MidlandsLABLABSafe0Midlands
Droitwich and EveshamWorcestershireCONCONSafe0NA
DudleyWest MidlandsCONLABLean1NA
HalesowenWest MidlandsCONLABLikely1NA
Hereford and South HerefordshireHerefordshireCONCONLikely0NA
Kenilworth and SouthamWarwickshireCONCONLikely0NA
Kingswinford and South StaffordshireStaffordshireCONCONSafe0NA
Meriden and Solihull EastWest MidlandsCONCONLikely0NA
North HerefordshireHerefordshireCONCONSafe0NA
North ShropshireShropshireCONCONLean0NA
North Warwickshire and BedworthWarwickshireCONCONLean0NA
SmethwickWest MidlandsLABLABSafe0NA
Solihull West and ShirleyWest MidlandsCONCONLikely0NA
South ShropshireShropshireCONCONSafe0NA
Staffordshire MoorlandsStaffordshireCONToss-Up0NA
Stoke-on-Trent CentralStaffordshireCONLABSafe1Midlands
Stoke-on-Trent NorthStaffordshireCONLABSafe1Midlands
Stoke-on-Trent SouthStaffordshireCONLABLean1NA
Stone, Great Wyrley and PenkridgeStaffordshireCONCONSafe0NA
StourbridgeWest MidlandsCONLABLean1NA
Sutton ColdfieldWest MidlandsCONToss-Up0NA
The WrekinShropshireCONCONLikely0NA
Tipton and WednesburyWest MidlandsCONLABSafe1Midlands
Walsall and BloxwichWest MidlandsCONLABSafe1Midlands
Warwick and LeamingtonWarwickshireLABLABSafe0Midlands
West BromwichWest MidlandsCONLABSafe1Midlands
West WorcestershireWorcestershireCONCONLikely0NA
Wolverhampton North EastWest MidlandsCONLABSafe1Midlands
Wolverhampton South EastWest MidlandsLABLABSafe0Midlands
Wolverhampton WestWest MidlandsCONLABSafe1Midlands
Wyre ForestWorcestershireCONCONLikely0NA

Abbreviations used in the table: CON = Conservative, LAB = Labour Party, LIB = Liberal Democrats, GRE = Green Party, UKI = UK Independence Party (UKIP), REF = Reform UK