West Midlands
The West Midlands Region consists of the counties of Herefordshire, Shropshire, Staffordshire, Warwickshire, West Midlands and Worcestershire (we will refer to the county of West Midlands as Greater Birmingham to avoid confusion with the region). Politically it has three distinct parts, central Birmingham, the close suburbs and Coventry (which are very red), the outer suburbs of Greater Birmingham and nearby towns (which are very competitive) and the rural counties that surround Greater Birmingham (which are very blue).
The rural parts of the West Midlands are very blue. Labour won just won seat in Herefordshire, Shropshire, Staffordshire, Warwickshire, and Worcestershire put together in 2019, whilst the Conservative held the remaining 30. This was an historical low point for Labour, particularly in Staffordshire. They held 9 seats as recently as 2005 and had not fallen below 4 in the 60 years before that election.
The most competitive part of the region is the Black Country, which is home to many marginal seats. The towns of Dudley, West Bromwich and Wolverhampton are fiercely fought over by the two big parties.
The West Midlands is not a strong region for the Liberal Democrats or for any other party. The big two tend to dominate in both vote share and seats won.
General Election Time Series
Seats Won in the West Midlands 1955-2019
Share of the Vote Won in the West Midlands1955-2019
2019 General Election
Seats Won in the West Midlands in 2019, by County
Share of the Vote Won in the West Midlands in 2019, by County
Share of Seats Won in the West Midlands in 2019, by County
Change in Vote Share and Seats Won in the West Midlands in 2019, by County
Local Government Composition
Local Councils Held 1973-2023 in the West Midlands
Local Council Seats Held 1973-2023 in the West Midlands
Election Model Forecast for Next Election
| Constituency | County | Notional Winner 2019 | Forecast Winner | Classification | Forecast Party Change | Battleground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aldridge-Brownhills | West Midlands | CON | CON | Safe | 0 | NA |
| Birmingham Edgbaston | West Midlands | LAB | LAB | Safe | 0 | NA |
| Birmingham Erdington | West Midlands | LAB | LAB | Safe | 0 | NA |
| Birmingham Hall Green and Moseley | West Midlands | LAB | LAB | Safe | 0 | NA |
| Birmingham Hodge Hill and Solihull North | West Midlands | LAB | LAB | Safe | 0 | NA |
| Birmingham Ladywood | West Midlands | LAB | LAB | Safe | 0 | NA |
| Birmingham Northfield | West Midlands | CON | LAB | Safe | 1 | Midlands |
| Birmingham Perry Barr | West Midlands | LAB | LAB | Safe | 0 | NA |
| Birmingham Selly Oak | West Midlands | LAB | LAB | Safe | 0 | NA |
| Birmingham Yardley | West Midlands | LAB | LAB | Safe | 0 | NA |
| Bromsgrove | Worcestershire | CON | CON | Safe | 0 | NA |
| Burton and Uttoxeter | Staffordshire | CON | Toss-Up | 1 | NA | |
| Cannock Chase | Staffordshire | CON | CON | Safe | 0 | NA |
| Coventry East | West Midlands | LAB | LAB | Safe | 0 | NA |
| Coventry North West | West Midlands | LAB | LAB | Safe | 0 | Midlands |
| Coventry South | West Midlands | LAB | LAB | Safe | 0 | Midlands |
| Droitwich and Evesham | Worcestershire | CON | CON | Safe | 0 | NA |
| Dudley | West Midlands | CON | Toss-Up | 0 | NA | |
| Halesowen | West Midlands | CON | LAB | Lean | 1 | NA |
| Hereford and South Herefordshire | Herefordshire | CON | CON | Safe | 0 | NA |
| Kenilworth and Southam | Warwickshire | CON | CON | Likely | 0 | NA |
| Kingswinford and South Staffordshire | Staffordshire | CON | CON | Safe | 0 | NA |
| Lichfield | Staffordshire | CON | CON | Safe | 0 | NA |
| Meriden and Solihull East | West Midlands | CON | CON | Safe | 0 | NA |
| Newcastle-under-Lyme | Staffordshire | CON | LAB | Safe | 1 | Midlands |
| North Herefordshire | Herefordshire | CON | CON | Safe | 0 | NA |
| North Shropshire | Shropshire | CON | CON | Likely | 0 | NA |
| North Warwickshire and Bedworth | Warwickshire | CON | CON | Likely | 0 | NA |
| Nuneaton | Warwickshire | CON | LAB | Lean | 1 | NA |
| Redditch | Worcestershire | CON | CON | Likely | 0 | NA |
| Rugby | Warwickshire | CON | LAB | Likely | 1 | NA |
| Shrewsbury | Shropshire | CON | LAB | Safe | 1 | Midlands |
| Smethwick | West Midlands | LAB | LAB | Safe | 0 | NA |
| Solihull West and Shirley | West Midlands | CON | CON | Safe | 0 | NA |
| South Shropshire | Shropshire | CON | CON | Safe | 0 | NA |
| Stafford | Staffordshire | CON | LAB | Likely | 1 | NA |
| Staffordshire Moorlands | Staffordshire | CON | CON | Likely | 0 | NA |
| Stoke-on-Trent Central | Staffordshire | CON | LAB | Safe | 1 | Midlands |
| Stoke-on-Trent North | Staffordshire | CON | LAB | Safe | 1 | Midlands |
| Stoke-on-Trent South | Staffordshire | CON | CON | Lean | 0 | NA |
| Stone, Great Wyrley and Penkridge | Staffordshire | CON | CON | Safe | 0 | NA |
| Stourbridge | West Midlands | CON | CON | Lean | 0 | NA |
| Stratford-on-Avon | Warwickshire | CON | CON | Safe | 0 | NA |
| Sutton Coldfield | West Midlands | CON | CON | Likely | 0 | NA |
| Tamworth | Staffordshire | CON | CON | Safe | 0 | NA |
| Telford | Shropshire | CON | LAB | Likely | 1 | NA |
| The Wrekin | Shropshire | CON | CON | Safe | 0 | NA |
| Tipton and Wednesbury | West Midlands | CON | LAB | Safe | 1 | Midlands |
| Walsall and Bloxwich | West Midlands | CON | LAB | Safe | 1 | Midlands |
| Warwick and Leamington | Warwickshire | LAB | LAB | Safe | 0 | Midlands |
| West Bromwich | West Midlands | CON | LAB | Safe | 1 | Midlands |
| West Worcestershire | Worcestershire | CON | CON | Safe | 0 | NA |
| Wolverhampton North East | West Midlands | CON | LAB | Safe | 1 | Midlands |
| Wolverhampton South East | West Midlands | LAB | LAB | Safe | 0 | Midlands |
| Wolverhampton West | West Midlands | CON | LAB | Safe | 1 | Midlands |
| Worcester | Worcestershire | CON | LAB | Safe | 1 | Midlands |
| Wyre Forest | Worcestershire | CON | CON | Safe | 0 | NA |
Abbreviations used in the table: CON = Conservative, LAB = Labour Party, LIB = Liberal Democrats, GRE = Green Party, UKI = UK Independence Party (UKIP), REF = Reform UK