East of England
The East of England consists of the counties of Bedfordshire, Cambridgeshire, Essex, Hertfordshire, Norfolk and Suffolk. Politically it is solidly to the right of the country, it consistently returns large numbers of Conservative MPs. However it contains many marginal constituencies that tend to swing between governing parties.
This is seen clearly during the 1960โs and 70โs, when Labour won a majority in 1966 they had 15 MPs in the East of England, this dropped to 4 when Heath won his majority in 1970. However, in the October 1974 election Labour were back in government and had 13 MPs in the region. The election of Thatcher in 1979 would usher in a long period of Conservative dominance in the East of England as they were able to hold all but a handful of seats. This was in part due to a high vote share, consistently over 50%, but also due to a split in the opposition vote between Labour and the Liberal/SDP/Liberal Democrats.
This decisively changed in 1997 when Labour captured 39% of the vote and 22 seats with a massive 12 point increase in the share of the vote. National polls before that election overstated the Labour lead but the East of England is one area where Labour did make double digit vote share gains. From this high point the Labour vote slowly shrank but it did not flow exclusively to the Tories. UKIP emerged as an electoral force in the East of England, at their peak in 2015 they won 16% of the vote. This combined with by-election victories in Clacton (Essex, EOE) and Rochester (Kent, SEE) were key drivers of the Brexit referendum that would follow in 2016. However UKIP were unable to hold their seats at the general election and they withered after the referendum.
The two post referendum elections had very different vote shares for Labour (33 and 24) but similar outcomes in terms of seats (7 and 5). The Conservatives stranglehold on the region continued. Since 1955, they have always held a majority of seats (even in 1997) and currently hold 52 out of 58. In 2019, all six counties in the region voted more strongly for the Conservatives then did either England or the UK as a whole. This is part of a pattern that stretches back decades.
General Election Time Series
Seats Won in the East of England 1955-2019
Share of the Vote Won in the East of England 1955-2019
2019 General Election
Seats Won in the East of England in 2019, by County
Share of the Vote Won in the East of England in 2019, by County
Share of Seats Won in the East of England in 2019, by County
Change in Vote Share and Seats Won in the East of England in 2019, by County
Local Government Composition
Local Councils Held 1973-2023 in the East of England
Local Council Seats Held 1973-2023 in the East of England
Election Model Forecast for Next Election
| Constituency | County | Notional Winner 2019 | Forecast Winner | Classification | Forecast Party Change | Battleground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Basildon and Billericay | Essex | CON | CON | Safe | 0 | NA |
| Bedford | Bedfordshire | LAB | LAB | Safe | 0 | Southern England |
| Braintree | Essex | CON | CON | Safe | 0 | NA |
| Brentwood and Ongar | Essex | CON | CON | Safe | 0 | NA |
| Broadland and Fakenham | Norfolk | CON | CON | Likely | 0 | NA |
| Broxbourne | Hertfordshire | CON | CON | Safe | 0 | NA |
| Bury St Edmunds and Stowmarket | Suffolk | CON | CON | Safe | 0 | NA |
| Cambridge | Cambridgeshire | LAB | LAB | Safe | 0 | NA |
| Castle Point | Essex | CON | CON | Safe | 0 | NA |
| Central Suffolk and North Ipswich | Suffolk | CON | CON | Safe | 0 | NA |
| Chelmsford | Essex | CON | CON | Lean | 0 | NA |
| Clacton | Essex | CON | CON | Safe | 0 | NA |
| Colchester | Essex | CON | LAB | Likely | 1 | Southern England |
| Dunstable and Leighton Buzzard | Bedfordshire | CON | Toss-Up | 0 | NA | |
| Ely and East Cambridgeshire | Cambridgeshire | CON | Toss-Up | 0 | NA | |
| Epping Forest | Essex | CON | CON | Safe | 0 | NA |
| Great Yarmouth | Norfolk | CON | CON | Safe | 0 | NA |
| Harlow | Essex | CON | CON | Likely | 0 | NA |
| Harpenden and Berkhamsted | Hertfordshire | CON | CON | Likely | 0 | NA |
| Harwich and North Essex | Essex | CON | CON | Lean | 0 | NA |
| Hemel Hempstead | Hertfordshire | CON | LAB | Lean | 1 | NA |
| Hertford and Stortford | Hertfordshire | CON | Toss-Up | 0 | NA | |
| Hertsmere | Hertfordshire | CON | CON | Safe | 0 | NA |
| Hitchin | Hertfordshire | CON | LAB | Likely | 1 | NA |
| Huntingdon | Cambridgeshire | CON | CON | Likely | 0 | NA |
| Ipswich | Suffolk | CON | LAB | Safe | 1 | Southern England |
| Lowestoft | Suffolk | CON | Toss-Up | 0 | NA | |
| Luton North | Bedfordshire | LAB | LAB | Safe | 0 | NA |
| Luton South and South Bedfordshire | Bedfordshire | LAB | LAB | Safe | 0 | NA |
| Maldon | Essex | CON | CON | Safe | 0 | NA |
| Mid Bedfordshire | Bedfordshire | CON | CON | Safe | 0 | NA |
| Mid Norfolk | Norfolk | CON | CON | Safe | 0 | NA |
| North Bedfordshire | Bedfordshire | CON | CON | Safe | 0 | NA |
| North East Cambridgeshire | Cambridgeshire | CON | CON | Safe | 0 | NA |
| North East Hertfordshire | Hertfordshire | CON | CON | Lean | 0 | NA |
| North Norfolk | Norfolk | CON | CON | Likely | 0 | NA |
| North West Cambridgeshire | Cambridgeshire | CON | CON | Likely | 0 | NA |
| North West Essex | Essex | CON | CON | Safe | 0 | NA |
| North West Norfolk | Norfolk | CON | CON | Safe | 0 | NA |
| Norwich North | Norfolk | CON | LAB | Safe | 1 | Southern England |
| Norwich South | Norfolk | LAB | LAB | Safe | 0 | NA |
| Peterborough | Cambridgeshire | CON | LAB | Safe | 1 | Southern England |
| Rayleigh and Wickford | Essex | CON | CON | Safe | 0 | NA |
| South Basildon and East Thurrock | Essex | CON | CON | Safe | 0 | NA |
| South Cambridgeshire | Cambridgeshire | CON | LIB | Safe | 1 | Southern England |
| South Norfolk | Norfolk | CON | CON | Lean | 0 | NA |
| South Suffolk | Suffolk | CON | CON | Safe | 0 | NA |
| South West Hertfordshire | Hertfordshire | CON | CON | Safe | 0 | NA |
| South West Norfolk | Norfolk | CON | CON | Safe | 0 | NA |
| Southend East and Rochford | Essex | CON | LAB | Lean | 1 | NA |
| Southend West and Leigh | Essex | CON | Toss-Up | 1 | NA | |
| St Albans | Hertfordshire | LIB | LIB | Safe | 0 | NA |
| St Neots and Mid Cambridgeshire | Cambridgeshire | CON | Toss-Up | 0 | NA | |
| Stevenage | Hertfordshire | CON | LAB | Safe | 1 | Southern England |
| Suffolk Coastal | Suffolk | CON | CON | Likely | 0 | NA |
| Thurrock | Essex | CON | LAB | Lean | 1 | NA |
| Watford | Hertfordshire | CON | LAB | Safe | 1 | Southern England |
| Waveney Valley | Suffolk | CON | CON | Safe | 0 | NA |
| Welwyn Hatfield | Hertfordshire | CON | LAB | Safe | 1 | NA |
| West Suffolk | Suffolk | CON | CON | Safe | 0 | NA |
| Witham | Essex | CON | CON | Safe | 0 | NA |
Abbreviations used in the table: CON = Conservative, LAB = Labour Party, LIB = Liberal Democrats, GRE = Green Party, IND = Independent, UKI = UK Independence Party (UKIP), REF = Reform UK