UK Election Data Vault

Latest Forecast Updates

The results from our election forecasting model are updated twice a week on a Tuesday and a Thursday based on the latest avalible polling. Below is a summary of the changes in the seat ratings for each run of the model since its launch at the start of 2024.

2nd July 2024

Changes in seat classification (Conservative -+2 Labour -1, Liberal Democrats -1, Plaid Cymru +1, SNP +1, Toss-Ups -2):

• Conservatives
  • Bury St Edmunds and Stowmarket: Likely Conservative -> Safe Conservative
  • North Bedfordshire: Likely Conservative -> Safe Conservative
  • North West Norfolk: Likely Conservative -> Safe Conservative
  • Bognor Regis and Littlehampton: Likely Conservative -> Safe Conservative
  • Torbay: Likely Conservative -> Safe Conservative
  • Runnymede and Weybridge: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
  • Tunbridge Wells: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
• Labour
  • Telford: Safe Labour -> Likely Labour
  • Southend West and Leigh: Likely Labour -> Lean Labour
  • Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner: Likely Labour -> Lean Labour
  • Bracknell: Likely Labour -> Lean Labour
  • Rochester and Strood: Likely Labour -> Lean Labour
  • Central Devon: Likely Labour -> Lean Labour
  • Mid Derbyshire: Lean Labour -> Toss-Up
• Liberal Democrats
  • Newbury: Lean Liberal Democrats -> Toss-Up
• Toss-Ups
  • North West Cambridgeshire: Toss-Up -> Lean Conservative
  • Suffolk Coastal: Toss-Up -> Lean Conservative
  • Ashford: Toss-Up -> Lean Conservative
  • Perth and Kinross-shire: Toss-Up -> Lean SNP
  • Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe: Toss-Up -> Lean Conservative
  • Caerfyrddin: Toss-Up -> Lean Plaid Cymru

30th June 2024 (Special Sunday Update)

Changes in seat classification (Conservative -1, Labour -1, Liberal Democrats +1, Toss-Ups -1):

• Conservatives
  • North Bedfordshire: Safe Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • South West Hertfordshire: Likely Conservative -> Safe Conservative
  • Lichfield: Likely Conservative -> Safe Conservative
  • Chelmsford: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
  • North West Cambridgeshire: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
• Labour
  • Telford: Likely Labour -> Safe Labour
  • Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner: Lean Labour -> Likely Labour
  • Rochester and Strood: Lean Labour -> Likely Labour
  • Mid Derbyshire: Toss-Up -> Lean Labour
• Liberal Democrats
  • Newbury: Toss-Up -> Lean Liberal Democrats
• Toss-Ups
  • Runnymede and Weybridge: Toss-Up -> Lean Conservative

27th June 2024

Changes in seat classification (Conservative +4, Labour -1, Liberal Democrats +1, Toss-Ups -1):

• Conservatives
  • Hertsmere: Likely Conservative -> Safe Conservative
  • North Bedfordshire: Likely Conservative -> Safe Conservative
  • Waveney Valley: Likely Conservative -> Safe Conservative
  • Tamworth: Likely Conservative -> Safe Conservative
  • North Norfolk: Likely Conservative -> Lean Conservative
  • Romford: Lean Conservative -> Likely Conservative
• Labour
  • Telford: Safe Labour -> Likely Labour
  • Inverclyde and Renfrewshire West: Likely Labour -> Safe Labour
  • Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner: Likely Labour -> Lean Labour
  • Rochester and Strood: Likely Labour -> Lean Labour
  • Barnsley North: Likely Labour -> Lean Labour
  • Mid Derbyshire: Lean Labour -> Toss-Up
• Liberal Democrats
  • Hazel Grove: Likely Liberal Democrats -> Safe Liberal Democrats
• Toss-Up
  • North West Cambridgeshire: Toss-Up -> Lean Conservative
  • Congleton: Toss-Up -> Lean Conservative
  • Henley and Thame: Toss-Up -> Lean Liberal Democrats
  • Tunbridge Wells: Toss-Up -> Lean Conservative
  • Beverley and Holderness: Toss-Up -> Lean Conservative

25th June 2024

Changes in seat classification (Conservative +2, Labour -9, Liberal Democrats +2, SNP +2, Toss-Ups +3):

• Conservatives
  • Basildon and Billericay: Likely Conservative -> Safe Conservative
  • Epping Forest: Likely Conservative -> Safe Conservative
  • South Basildon and East Thurrock: Likely Conservative -> Safe Conservative
  • West Worcestershire: Likely Conservative -> Safe Conservative
  • Goole and Pocklington: Likely Conservative -> Safe Conservative
  • Yeovil: Likely Conservative -> Lean Conservative
  • Reigate: Lean Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • Poole: Lean Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • South East Cornwall: Lean Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • Redditch: Lean Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • Ely and East Cambridgeshire: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
  • Epsom and Ewell: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
  • Tunbridge Wells: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
  • Chippenham: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
  • Thornbury and Yate: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
• Labour
  • Inverclyde and Renfrewshire West: Safe Labour -> Likely Labour
  • Clwyd East: Likely Labour -> Safe Labour
  • Finchley and Golders Green: Likely Labour -> Lean Labour
  • Mid and South Pembrokeshire: Lean Labour -> Likely Labour
  • Ynys Môn: Lean Labour -> Likely Labour
  • Harwich and North Essex: Lean Labour -> Toss-Up
  • Lowestoft: Lean Labour -> Toss-Up
  • North East Hertfordshire: Lean Labour -> Toss-Up
  • North Northumberland: Lean Labour -> Toss-Up
  • Ribble Valley: Lean Labour -> Toss-Up
  • Gillingham and Rainham: Lean Labour -> Toss-Up
  • Gravesham: Lean Labour -> Toss-Up
  • Mid Sussex: Lean Labour -> Toss-Up
  • Stoke-on-Trent South: Lean Labour -> Toss-Up
• Liberal Democrats
  • Winchester: Likely Liberal Democrats -> Safe Liberal Democrats
  • Dorking and Horley: Lean Liberal Democrats -> Likely Liberal Democrats
  • Godalming and Ash: Lean Liberal Democrats -> Likely Liberal Democrats
• Toss-Ups
  • Mid Leicestershire: Toss-Up -> Lean Conservative
  • North West Leicestershire: Toss-Up -> Lean Conservative
  • Chelmsford: Toss-Up -> Lean Conservative
  • Didcot and Wantage: Toss-Up -> Lean Liberal Democrats
  • Windsor: Toss-Up -> Lean Conservative
  • Salisbury: Toss-Up -> Lean Conservative
  • South West Wiltshire: Toss-Up -> Lean Conservative
  • West Dorset: Toss-Up -> Lean Liberal Democrats
  • Sutton Coldfield: Toss-Up -> Lean Conservative
  • Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey: Toss-Up -> Lean SNP
  • North Ayrshire and Arran: Toss-Up -> Lean SNP

20th June 2024

Changes in seat classification (Conservative +4, Labour -2, Liberal Democrats +1, SNP -1, Toss-Ups -2):

• Conservatives
  • Arundel and South Downs: Likely Conservative -> Safe Conservative
  • Fareham and Waterlooville: Likely Conservative -> Safe Conservative
  • Thirsk and Malton: Likely Conservative -> Safe Conservative
  • Newark: Lean Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • Huntingdon: Lean Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • North Shropshire: Lean Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • North Warwickshire and Bedworth: Lean Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • Wells and Mendip Hills: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
  • Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
• Labour
  • Hartlepool: Safe Labour -> Likely Labour
  • Barnsley South: Safe Labour -> Likely Labour
  • Inverclyde and Renfrewshire West: Likely Labour -> Safe Labour
  • Isle of Wight West: Likely Labour -> Lean Labour
  • Forest of Dean: Likely Labour -> Lean Labour
  • South Norfolk: Lean Labour -> Toss-Up
  • Stourbridge: Lean Labour -> Toss-Up
• Liberal Democrats
  • Sutton and Cheam: Lean Liberal Democrats -> Likely Liberal Democrats
• SNP
  • North Ayrshire and Arran: Lean SNP -> Toss-Up
• Toss-Ups
  • Amber Valley: Toss-Up -> Lean Conservative
  • Broadland and Fakenham: Toss-Up -> Lean Conservative
  • Epsom and Ewell: Toss-Up -> Lean Conservative
  • Spelthorne: Toss-Up -> Lean Conservative
  • Woking: Toss-Up -> Lean Liberal Democrats
  • Bridgwater: Toss-Up -> Lean Conservative
  • Staffordshire Moorlands: Toss-Up -> Lean Conservative

18th June 2024

The final candidate lists have now been incorporated into the model. Up until this point the model had assumed that the parties who stood last time would do so again. Now we are using the list of parties who are actaully running. The biggest effect is for Reform UK, who did not stand in many Conservative held constituencies in 2019 but are this time. Changes in seat classification (Conservative -2, Labour +1, Liberal Democrats +3, Toss-Ups -2):

• Conservatives
  • Fareham and Waterlooville: Safe Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • Gainsborough: Likely Conservative -> Safe Conservative
  • Farnham and Bordon: Likely Conservative -> Lean Conservative
  • Glastonbury and Somerton: Likely Conservative -> Lean Conservative
  • North Devon: Likely Conservative -> Lean Conservative
  • Thornbury and Yate: Likely Conservative -> Lean Conservative
  • North Shropshire: Likely Conservative -> Lean Conservative
  • Exmouth and Exeter East: Lean Conservative -> Safe Conservative
  • Harpenden and Berkhamsted: Lean Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • Amber Valley: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
  • Broadland and Fakenham: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
  • Bicester and Woodstock: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
  • Spelthorne: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
  • Bridgwater: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
  • Staffordshire Moorlands: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
• Labour
  • Telford: Likely Labour -> Safe Labour
  • Glasgow South: Likely Labour -> Safe Labour
  • St Neots and Mid Cambridgeshire: Lean Labour -> Toss-Up
• Liberal Democrats
  • Wimbledon: Lean Liberal Democrats -> Likely Liberal Democrats
  • Eastleigh: Lean Liberal Democrats -> Likely Liberal Democrats
• DUP
  • South Antrim: Safe DUP -> Likely DUP
• Toss-Ups
  • Beaconsfield: Toss-Up -> Safe Conservative
  • South West Hertfordshire: Toss-Up -> Likely Conservative
  • Ely and East Cambridgeshire: Toss-Up -> Lean Conservative
  • South Norfolk: Toss-Up -> Lean Labour
  • Sutton and Cheam: Toss-Up -> Lean Liberal Democrats
  • Dorking and Horley: Toss-Up -> Lean Liberal Democrats
  • Godalming and Ash: Toss-Up -> Lean Liberal Democrats
  • Stoke-on-Trent South: Toss-Up -> Lean Labour
  • Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe: Toss-Up -> Lean Conservative

13th June 2024

Changes in seat classification (Conservative +2, Labour -2, SNP -3):

• Conservative
  • Fareham and Waterlooville: Likely Conservative -> Safe Conservative
  • North Shropshire: Lean Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
  • Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
• Labour
  • Telford: Safe Labour -> Likely Labour
  • Mid and South Pembrokeshire: Likely Labour -> Lean Labour
  • South Norfolk: Lean Labour -> Toss-Up
  • Stoke-on-Trent South: Lean Labour -> Toss-Up
• Liberal Democrats
  • South Cambridgeshire: Likely Liberal Democrats -> Safe Liberal Democrats
  • St Ives: Likely Liberal Democrats -> Safe Liberal Democrats
  • Harrogate and Knaresborough: Lean Liberal Democrats -> Likely Liberal Democrats
  • Dorking and Horley: Lean Liberal Democrats -> Toss-Up
• DUP
  • South Antrim: Likely DUP -> Safe DUP
• Toss-Ups
  • Amber Valley: Toss-Up -> Lean Conservative
  • Fylde: Toss-Up -> Lean Conservative
  • Eastleigh: Toss-Up -> Lean Liberal Democrats
  • Spelthorne: Toss-Up -> Lean Conservative
  • Bridgwater: Toss-Up -> Lean Conservative

11th June 2024

Changes in seat classification (Conservative -1, Labour +1, SNP -3, Toss-Ups +3):

• Conservatives
  • Sittingbourne and Sheppey: Likely Conservative -> Safe Conservative
  • Chippenham: Likely Conservative -> Lean Conservative
  • Wells and Mendip Hills: Likely Conservative -> Lean Conservative
  • Skipton and Ripon: Lean Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • Newbury: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
  • Wokingham: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
• Labour
  • Ashfield: Safe Labour -> Likely Labour
  • Barnsley North: Safe Labour -> Likely Labour
  • Telford: Likely Labour -> Safe Labour
  • Motherwell, Wishaw and Carluke: Likely Labour -> Safe Labour
  • Na h-Eileanan an Iar: Likely Labour -> Safe Labour
  • Cumbernauld and Kirkintilloch: Lean Labour -> Likely Labour
  • East Kilbride and Strathaven: Lean Labour -> Likely Labour
  • Livingston: Lean Labour -> Likely Labour
  • Paisley and Renfrewshire North: Lean Labour -> Likely Labour
  • Mid and South Pembrokeshire: Lean Labour -> Likely Labour
• Liberal Democrats
  • Westmorland and Lonsdale: Likely Liberal Democrats -> Safe Liberal Democrats
  • Taunton and Wellington: Lean Liberal Democrats -> Likely Liberal Democrats
  • Eastleigh: Lean Liberal Democrats -> Toss-Up
  • Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross: Lean Liberal Democrats -> Toss-Up
• SNP
  • East Renfrewshire: Lean SNP -> Toss-Up
  • Edinburgh South West: Lean SNP -> Toss-Up
  • Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey: Lean SNP -> Toss-Up
• Toss-Ups
  • Wimbledon: Toss-Up -> Lean Liberal Democrats
  • Dorking and Horley: Toss-Up -> Lean Liberal Democrats
  • Mid Sussex: Toss-Up -> Lean Labour
  • West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine: Toss-Up -> Lean Conservative

6th June 2024

Changes in seat classification (Conservative +3, Labour -2, SNP -1):

• Conservatives
  • Grantham and Bourne: Likely Conservative -> Safe Conservative
  • Mid Buckinghamshire: Likely Conservative -> Safe Conservative
  • Honiton and Sidmouth: Likely Conservative -> Safe Conservative
  • Wells and Mendip Hills: Lean Conservative -> Likely Conservative
• Labour
  • Telford: Safe Labour -> Likely Labour
  • Hamilton and Clyde Valley: Likely Labour -> Safe Labour
  • Wrexham: Likely Labour -> Safe Labour
  • Bathgate and Linlithgow: Lean Labour -> Likely Labour
  • Kettering: Lean Labour -> Toss-Up
  • Isle of Wight East: Lean Labour -> Toss-Up
• Liberal Democrats
  • Hazel Grove: Lean Liberal Democrats -> Likely Liberal Democrats
• SNP
  • Dundee Central: Lean SNP -> Toss-Up
• Toss-Ups
  • Broadland and Fakenham: Toss-Up -> Lean Conservative
  • Bicester and Woodstock: Toss-Up -> Lean Conservative
  • Staffordshire Moorlands: Toss-Up -> Lean Conservative

4th June 2024

Changes in seat classification (Conservative +2, SNP -1, Toss-Ups -1):

• Conservatives
  • East Hampshire: Likely Conservative -> Safe Conservative
  • Melton and Syston: Lean Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • Maidstone and Malling: Lean Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • Chippenham: Lean Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • Kenilworth and Southam: Lean Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • Bicester and Woodstock: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
• Labour
  • Telford: Likely Labour -> Safe Labour
  • Paisley and Renfrewshire South: Lean Labour -> Likely Labour
• SNP
  • Aberdeen South: Likely SNP -> Lean SNP
  • North Ayrshire and Arran: Likely SNP -> Lean SNP
  • Kilmarnock and Loudoun: Lean SNP -> Toss-Up
  • Perth and Kinross-shire: Lean SNP -> Toss-Up
• Toss-Ups
  • Chester South and Eddisbury: Toss-Up -> Lean Conservative
  • Newbury: Toss-Up -> Lean Conservative
  • Newton Abbot: Toss-Up -> Lean Conservative
  • East Renfrewshire: Toss-Up -> Lean SNP

30th May 2024

Changes in seat classification (Conservative +9, Labour -4, SNP -2, Toss-Ups -3):

• Conservatives
  • Daventry: Likely Conservative -> Safe Conservative
  • South Leicestershire: Likely Conservative -> Safe Conservative
  • North West Essex: Likely Conservative -> Safe Conservative
  • East Surrey: Likely Conservative -> Safe Conservative
  • Havant: Likely Conservative -> Safe Conservative
  • Tiverton and Minehead: Likely Conservative -> Safe Conservative
  • North Herefordshire: Likely Conservative -> Safe Conservative
  • Stone, Great Wyrley and Penkridge: Likely Conservative -> Safe Conservative
  • Stratford-on-Avon: Likely Conservative -> Safe Conservative
  • Bridlington and the Wolds: Likely Conservative -> Safe Conservative
  • Richmond and Northallerton: Likely Conservative -> Safe Conservative
  • Broxbourne: Lean Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • Central Suffolk and North Ipswich: Lean Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • Great Yarmouth: Lean Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • Mid Bedfordshire: Lean Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • Old Bexley and Sidcup: Lean Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • Bexhill and Battle: Lean Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • Herne Bay and Sandwich: Lean Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • Thornbury and Yate: Lean Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • The Wrekin: Lean Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • Dumfries and Galloway: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
• Labour
  • Morecambe and Lunesdale: Safe Labour -> Likely Labour
  • Buckingham and Bletchley: Safe Labour -> Likely Labour
  • Telford: Safe Labour -> Likely Labour
  • Glasgow East: Likely Labour -> Safe Labour
  • Sherwood Forest: Likely Labour -> Lean Labour
  • Dunstable and Leighton Buzzard: Likely Labour -> Lean Labour
  • Hertford and Stortford: Likely Labour -> Lean Labour
  • Bexleyheath and Crayford: Likely Labour -> Lean Labour
  • Dartford: Likely Labour -> Lean Labour
  • Mansfield: Lean Labour -> Toss-Up
  • Wellingborough and Rushden: Lean Labour -> Toss-Up
  • Mid Sussex: Lean Labour -> Toss-Up
  • Reading West and Mid Berkshire: Lean Labour -> Toss-Up
• Liberal Democrats
  • North East Fife: Lean Liberal Democrats -> Likely Liberal Democrats
  • Dorking and Horley: Lean Liberal Democrats -> Toss-Up
• SNP
  • Argyll, Bute and South Lochaber: Likely SNP -> Lean SNP
  • Central Ayrshire: Lean SNP -> Toss-Up
  • East Renfrewshire: Lean SNP -> Toss-Up
• Toss-Ups
  • Harpenden and Berkhamsted: Toss-Up -> Lean Conservative
  • Huntingdon: Toss-Up -> Lean Conservative
  • Romford: Toss-Up -> Lean Conservative
  • Bicester and Woodstock: Toss-Up -> Lean Conservative
  • Eastleigh: Toss-Up -> Lean Liberal Democrats
  • Reigate: Toss-Up -> Lean Conservative
  • Tunbridge Wells: Toss-Up -> Lean Conservative
  • Wokingham: Toss-Up -> Lean Conservative
  • Poole: Toss-Up -> Lean Conservative
  • Redditch: Toss-Up -> Lean Conservative
  • Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe: Toss-Up -> Lean Conservative

28th May 2024

Changes in seat classification (Conservative -7, Labour +7, Liberal Democrats +1, Plaid Cymru -1):

• Conservatives
  • North West Essex: Safe Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • East Surrey: Safe Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • Havant: Safe Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • Tiverton and Minehead: Safe Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • North Herefordshire: Safe Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • Stone, Great Wyrley and Penkridge: Safe Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • Stratford-on-Avon: Safe Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • Bridlington and the Wolds: Safe Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • Richmond and Northallerton: Safe Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • Great Yarmouth: Likely Conservative -> Lean Conservative
  • Bexhill and Battle: Likely Conservative -> Lean Conservative
  • Thornbury and Yate: Likely Conservative -> Lean Conservative
  • The Wrekin: Likely Conservative -> Lean Conservative
  • Aberdeenshire North and Moray East: Lean Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • Harpenden and Berkhamsted: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
  • Huntingdon: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
  • Romford: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
  • Reigate: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
  • Poole: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
  • Redditch: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
  • Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
• Labour
  • Morecambe and Lunesdale: Likely Labour -> Safe Labour
  • Penrith and Solway: Likely Labour -> Safe Labour
  • Buckingham and Bletchley: Likely Labour -> Safe Labour
  • Telford: Likely Labour -> Safe Labour
  • Sherwood Forest: Lean Labour -> Likely Labour
  • Dunstable and Leighton Buzzard: Lean Labour -> Likely Labour
  • Hertford and Stortford: Lean Labour -> Likely Labour
  • Bexleyheath and Crayford: Lean Labour -> Likely Labour
  • Dartford: Lean Labour -> Likely Labour
  • Edinburgh East and Musselburgh: Lean Labour -> Likely Labour
• Liberal Democrats
  • Hazel Grove: Likely Liberal Democrats -> Lean Liberal Democrats
  • Eastleigh: Lean Liberal Democrats -> Toss-Up
• Plaid Cymru
  • Caerfyrddin: Lean Plaid Cymru -> Toss-Up
• Toss-Ups
  • Kettering: Toss-Up -> Lean Labour
  • Mansfield: Toss-Up -> Lean Labour
  • Wellingborough and Rushden: Toss-Up -> Lean Labour
  • Dorking and Horley: Toss-Up -> Lean Liberal Democrats
  • Isle of Wight East: Toss-Up -> Lean Labour
  • Reading West and Mid Berkshire: Toss-Up -> Lean Labour
  • Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross: Toss-Up -> Lean Liberal Democrats
  • East Kilbride and Strathaven: Toss-Up -> Lean Labour
  • Livingston: Toss-Up -> Lean Labour

23rd May 2024

Rishi Sunak called the general election on 22nd May. This means the model’s forecast election day changed from 23rd January 2025 to 4th July 2024. The result is the model became much more confident about the results. Changes in seat classification (Conservative +14, Labour +23, Liberal Democrats +2, Plaid Cymru +1, SNP +1, Toss-Up -41):

• Conservatives
  • Hinckley and Bosworth: Likely Conservative -> Safe Conservative
  • Rutland and Stamford: Likely Conservative -> Safe Conservative
  • Sleaford and North Hykeham: Likely Conservative -> Safe Conservative
  • Braintree: Likely Conservative -> Safe Conservative
  • Brentwood and Ongar: Likely Conservative -> Safe Conservative
  • North West Essex: Likely Conservative -> Safe Conservative
  • South West Norfolk: Likely Conservative -> Safe Conservative
  • Witham: Likely Conservative -> Safe Conservative
  • East Surrey: Likely Conservative -> Safe Conservative
  • Gosport: Likely Conservative -> Safe Conservative
  • Hamble Valley: Likely Conservative -> Safe Conservative
  • Havant: Likely Conservative -> Safe Conservative
  • New Forest East: Likely Conservative -> Safe Conservative
  • New Forest West: Likely Conservative -> Safe Conservative
  • North East Hampshire: Likely Conservative -> Safe Conservative
  • Sevenoaks: Likely Conservative -> Safe Conservative
  • Sussex Weald: Likely Conservative -> Safe Conservative
  • Tonbridge: Likely Conservative -> Safe Conservative
  • Christchurch: Likely Conservative -> Safe Conservative
  • East Wiltshire: Likely Conservative -> Safe Conservative
  • North Dorset: Likely Conservative -> Safe Conservative
  • Tiverton and Minehead: Likely Conservative -> Safe Conservative
  • Aldridge-Brownhills: Likely Conservative -> Safe Conservative
  • Droitwich and Evesham: Likely Conservative -> Safe Conservative
  • North Herefordshire: Likely Conservative -> Safe Conservative
  • South Shropshire: Likely Conservative -> Safe Conservative
  • Stone, Great Wyrley and Penkridge: Likely Conservative -> Safe Conservative
  • Stratford-on-Avon: Likely Conservative -> Safe Conservative
  • Bridlington and the Wolds: Likely Conservative -> Safe Conservative
  • Brigg and Immingham: Likely Conservative -> Safe Conservative
  • Richmond and Northallerton: Likely Conservative -> Safe Conservative
  • Wetherby and Easingwold: Likely Conservative -> Safe Conservative
  • South Northamptonshire: Lean Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • Bury St Edmunds and Stowmarket: Lean Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • Great Yarmouth: Lean Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • Mid Norfolk: Lean Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • North Bedfordshire: Lean Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • North Norfolk: Lean Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • South Basildon and East Thurrock: Lean Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • South Suffolk: Lean Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • West Suffolk: Lean Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • Hornchurch and Upminster: Lean Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • Orpington: Lean Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • Bexhill and Battle: Lean Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • Bognor Regis and Littlehampton: Lean Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • Chatham and Aylesford: Lean Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • Chesham and Amersham: Lean Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • Chichester: Lean Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • East Grinstead and Uckfield: Lean Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • Farnham and Bordon: Lean Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • Faversham and Mid Kent: Lean Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • Maidenhead: Lean Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • North West Hampshire: Lean Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • Romsey and Southampton North: Lean Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • Surrey Heath: Lean Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • Melksham and Devizes: Lean Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • Mid Dorset and North Poole: Lean Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • North Cornwall: Lean Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • North Cotswolds: Lean Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • South Cotswolds: Lean Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • South West Devon: Lean Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • Tewkesbury: Lean Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • Thornbury and Yate: Lean Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • Torbay: Lean Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • Torridge and Tavistock: Lean Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • Yeovil: Lean Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • Bromsgrove: Lean Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • Hereford and South Herefordshire: Lean Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • Meriden and Solihull East: Lean Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • Solihull West and Shirley: Lean Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • The Wrekin: Lean Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • Wyre Forest: Lean Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk: Lean Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • Gordon and Buchan: Lean Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • Newton Abbot: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
• Labour
  • Ashfield: Likely Labour -> Safe Labour
  • Erewash: Likely Labour -> Safe Labour
  • Colchester: Likely Labour -> Safe Labour
  • Hitchin: Likely Labour -> Safe Labour
  • Stevenage: Likely Labour -> Safe Labour
  • Welwyn Hatfield: Likely Labour -> Safe Labour
  • Chelsea and Fulham: Likely Labour -> Safe Labour
  • Cities of London and Westminster: Likely Labour -> Safe Labour
  • Hartlepool: Likely Labour -> Safe Labour
  • Hexham: Likely Labour -> Safe Labour
  • Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland: Likely Labour -> Safe Labour
  • Stockton West: Likely Labour -> Safe Labour
  • Blackpool North and Fleetwood: Likely Labour -> Safe Labour
  • Bolton West: Likely Labour -> Safe Labour
  • Carlisle: Likely Labour -> Safe Labour
  • Macclesfield: Likely Labour -> Safe Labour
  • Pendle and Clitheroe: Likely Labour -> Safe Labour
  • Rossendale and Darwen: Likely Labour -> Safe Labour
  • Basingstoke: Likely Labour -> Safe Labour
  • Dover and Deal: Likely Labour -> Safe Labour
  • Earley and Woodley: Likely Labour -> Safe Labour
  • Bournemouth East: Likely Labour -> Safe Labour
  • Bournemouth West: Likely Labour -> Safe Labour
  • Camborne and Redruth: Likely Labour -> Safe Labour
  • Gloucester: Likely Labour -> Safe Labour
  • Stoke-on-Trent North: Likely Labour -> Safe Labour
  • Wolverhampton North East: Likely Labour -> Safe Labour
  • Barnsley North: Likely Labour -> Safe Labour
  • Barnsley South: Likely Labour -> Safe Labour
  • Doncaster East and the Isle of Axholme: Likely Labour -> Safe Labour
  • Great Grimsby and Cleethorpes: Likely Labour -> Safe Labour
  • Ossett and Denby Dale: Likely Labour -> Safe Labour
  • Scarborough and Whitby: Likely Labour -> Safe Labour
  • Scunthorpe: Likely Labour -> Safe Labour
  • Sheffield Hallam: Likely Labour -> Safe Labour
  • York Outer: Likely Labour -> Safe Labour
  • Airdrie and Shotts: Likely Labour -> Safe Labour
  • Coatbridge and Bellshill: Likely Labour -> Safe Labour
  • Glasgow North: Likely Labour -> Safe Labour
  • Glasgow North East: Likely Labour -> Safe Labour
  • Glasgow South West: Likely Labour -> Safe Labour
  • Midlothian: Likely Labour -> Safe Labour
  • Rutherglen: Likely Labour -> Safe Labour
  • Bangor Aberconwy: Likely Labour -> Safe Labour
  • Bridgend: Likely Labour -> Safe Labour
  • Clwyd North: Likely Labour -> Safe Labour
  • Vale of Glamorgan: Likely Labour -> Safe Labour
  • Harborough, Oadby and Wigston: Lean Labour -> Likely Labour
  • Southend West and Leigh: Lean Labour -> Likely Labour
  • Bromley and Biggin Hill: Lean Labour -> Likely Labour
  • Finchley and Golders Green: Lean Labour -> Likely Labour
  • Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner: Lean Labour -> Likely Labour
  • Aylesbury: Lean Labour -> Likely Labour
  • Banbury: Lean Labour -> Likely Labour
  • Bracknell: Lean Labour -> Likely Labour
  • Folkestone and Hythe: Lean Labour -> Likely Labour
  • Isle of Wight West: Lean Labour -> Likely Labour
  • Rochester and Strood: Lean Labour -> Likely Labour
  • Central Devon: Lean Labour -> Likely Labour
  • Forest of Dean: Lean Labour -> Likely Labour
  • Frome and East Somerset: Lean Labour -> Likely Labour
  • North East Somerset and Hanham: Lean Labour -> Likely Labour
  • North Somerset: Lean Labour -> Likely Labour
  • St Austell and Newquay: Lean Labour -> Likely Labour
  • Weston-Super-Mare: Lean Labour -> Likely Labour
  • Burton and Uttoxeter: Lean Labour -> Likely Labour
  • Nuneaton: Lean Labour -> Likely Labour
  • Selby: Lean Labour -> Likely Labour
  • Dunfermline and Dollar: Lean Labour -> Likely Labour
  • Edinburgh North and Leith: Lean Labour -> Likely Labour
  • Glasgow West: Lean Labour -> Likely Labour
  • Glenrothes and Mid Fife: Lean Labour -> Likely Labour
  • West Dunbartonshire: Lean Labour -> Likely Labour
• Liberal Democrats
  • Carshalton and Wallington: Likely Liberal Democrats -> Safe Liberal Democrats
  • Cheadle: Likely Liberal Democrats -> Safe Liberal Democrats
  • Eastbourne: Likely Liberal Democrats -> Safe Liberal Democrats
  • Esher and Walton: Likely Liberal Democrats -> Safe Liberal Democrats
  • Guildford: Likely Liberal Democrats -> Safe Liberal Democrats
  • Lewes: Likely Liberal Democrats -> Safe Liberal Democrats
  • Cheltenham: Likely Liberal Democrats -> Safe Liberal Democrats
  • Orkney and Shetland: Likely Liberal Democrats -> Safe Liberal Democrats
  • Hazel Grove: Lean Liberal Democrats -> Likely Liberal Democrats
  • Winchester: Lean Liberal Democrats -> Likely Liberal Democrats
  • Edinburgh West: Lean Liberal Democrats -> Likely Liberal Democrats
• SNP
  • Aberdeen South: Lean SNP -> Likely SNP
  • North Ayrshire and Arran: Lean SNP -> Likely SNP
• Plaid Cymru
  • Dwyfor Meirionnydd: Likely Plaid Cymru -> Safe Plaid Cymru
  • Ceredigion Preseli: Lean Plaid Cymru -> Likely Plaid Cymru
• Toss-Ups
  • Witney: Toss-Up -> Likely Conservative
  • Glastonbury and Somerton: Toss-Up -> Likely Conservative
  • North Devon: Toss-Up -> Likely Conservative
  • Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale: Toss-Up -> Likely Conservative
  • Mid Derbyshire: Toss-Up -> Lean Labour
  • Dunstable and Leighton Buzzard: Toss-Up -> Lean Labour
  • Harpenden and Berkhamsted: Toss-Up -> Lean Conservative
  • Harwich and North Essex: Toss-Up -> Lean Labour
  • Hertford and Stortford: Toss-Up -> Lean Labour
  • Huntingdon: Toss-Up -> Lean Conservative
  • Lowestoft: Toss-Up -> Lean Labour
  • North East Hertfordshire: Toss-Up -> Lean Labour
  • South Norfolk: Toss-Up -> Lean Labour
  • St Neots and Mid Cambridgeshire: Toss-Up -> Lean Labour
  • Bexleyheath and Crayford: Toss-Up -> Lean Labour
  • Romford: Toss-Up -> Lean Conservative
  • North Northumberland: Toss-Up -> Lean Labour
  • Ribble Valley: Toss-Up -> Lean Labour
  • Dartford: Toss-Up -> Lean Labour
  • Gillingham and Rainham: Toss-Up -> Lean Labour
  • Gravesham: Toss-Up -> Lean Labour
  • Mid Sussex: Toss-Up -> Lean Labour
  • Reigate: Toss-Up -> Lean Conservative
  • Chippenham: Toss-Up -> Lean Conservative
  • Exmouth and Exeter East: Toss-Up -> Lean Conservative
  • Poole: Toss-Up -> Lean Conservative
  • South East Cornwall: Toss-Up -> Lean Conservative
  • Taunton and Wellington: Toss-Up -> Lean Liberal Democrats
  • Dudley: Toss-Up -> Lean Labour
  • Stoke-on-Trent South: Toss-Up -> Lean Labour
  • Stourbridge: Toss-Up -> Lean Labour
  • Harrogate and Knaresborough: Toss-Up -> Lean Liberal Democrats
  • Aberdeenshire North and Moray East: Toss-Up -> Lean Conservative
  • Bathgate and Linlithgow: Toss-Up -> Lean Labour
  • Cumbernauld and Kirkintilloch: Toss-Up -> Lean Labour
  • Dumfries and Galloway: Toss-Up -> Lean Conservative
  • Paisley and Renfrewshire North: Toss-Up -> Lean Labour
  • Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe: Toss-Up -> Lean Conservative
  • Caerfyrddin: Toss-Up -> Lean Plaid Cymru
  • Mid and South Pembrokeshire: Toss-Up -> Lean Labour
  • Ynys Môn: Toss-Up -> Lean Labour
  • Argyll, Bute and South Lochaber: Toss-Up -> Likely SNP

21st May 2024

Changes in seat classification (SNP +1, Toss-Up -1):

• Conservatives
  • Brentwood and Ongar: Safe Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • Louth and Horncastle: Likely Conservative -> Safe Conservative
  • Aberdeenshire North and Moray East: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
  • Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
• Labour
  • Newcastle-under-Lyme: Likely Labour -> Safe Labour
  • Swindon North: Lean Labour -> Likely Labour
  • Dartford: Lean Labour -> Toss-Up
• Liberal Democrats
  • Taunton and Wellington: Lean Liberal Democrats -> Toss-Up
  • Harrogate and Knaresborough: Lean Liberal Democrats -> Toss-Up
• SNP
  • Angus and Perthshire Glens: Lean SNP -> Likely SNP
• Toss-Ups
  • Hazel Grove: Toss-Up -> Lean Liberal Democrats
  • Eastleigh: Toss-Up -> Lean Liberal Democrats
  • Newton Abbot: Toss-Up -> Lean Conservative
  • Redditch: Toss-Up -> Lean Conservative
  • Aberdeen South: Toss-Up -> Lean SNP
  • Paisley and Renfrewshire South: Toss-Up -> Lean Labour

16th May 2024

Changes in seat classification (Conservatives +2, Liberal Democrats +2, Toss-Up -4):

• Conservatives
  • Brentwood and Ongar: Likely Conservative -> Safe Conservative
  • Lichfield: Lean Conservative -> Likely Conservative
• Labour
  • Swindon North: Likely Labour -> Lean Labour
  • Inverclyde and Renfrewshire West: Lean Labour -> Likely Labour
• SNP
  • Aberdeen South: Lean SNP -> Toss-Up
• Plaid Cymru
  • Dwyfor Meirionnydd: Safe Plaid Cymru -> Likely Plaid Cymru
• Toss-Ups
  • Taunton and Wellington: Toss-Up -> Lean Liberal Democrats
  • North Shropshire: Toss-Up -> Lean Conservative
  • Harrogate and Knaresborough: Toss-Up -> Lean Liberal Democrats
  • Aberdeenshire North and Moray East: Toss-Up -> Lean Conservative
  • East Renfrewshire: Toss-Up -> Lean SNP

14th May 2024

Changes in seat classification (Conservatives -15, Labour +15, SNP +3, Toss-Up -3):

• Conservatives
  • Louth and Horncastle: Safe Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • Brentwood and Ongar: Safe Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • South Northamptonshire: Likely Conservative -> Lean Conservative
  • Bury St Edmunds and Stowmarket: Likely Conservative -> Lean Conservative
  • Mid Norfolk: Likely Conservative -> Lean Conservative
  • North Bedfordshire: Likely Conservative -> Lean Conservative
  • South Basildon and East Thurrock: Likely Conservative -> Lean Conservative
  • South Suffolk: Likely Conservative -> Lean Conservative
  • West Suffolk: Likely Conservative -> Lean Conservative
  • Hornchurch and Upminster: Likely Conservative -> Lean Conservative
  • Orpington: Likely Conservative -> Lean Conservative
  • Bognor Regis and Littlehampton: Likely Conservative -> Lean Conservative
  • Chatham and Aylesford: Likely Conservative -> Lean Conservative
  • Chichester: Likely Conservative -> Lean Conservative
  • East Grinstead and Uckfield: Likely Conservative -> Lean Conservative
  • Faversham and Mid Kent: Likely Conservative -> Lean Conservative
  • North West Hampshire: Likely Conservative -> Lean Conservative
  • Mid Dorset and North Poole: Likely Conservative -> Lean Conservative
  • North Cotswolds: Likely Conservative -> Lean Conservative
  • South West Devon: Likely Conservative -> Lean Conservative
  • Torbay: Likely Conservative -> Lean Conservative
  • Torridge and Tavistock: Likely Conservative -> Lean Conservative
  • Bromsgrove: Likely Conservative -> Lean Conservative
  • Hereford and South Herefordshire: Likely Conservative -> Lean Conservative
  • Lichfield: Likely Conservative -> Lean Conservative
  • Meriden and Solihull East: Likely Conservative -> Lean Conservative
  • Wyre Forest: Likely Conservative -> Lean Conservative
  • Broadland and Fakenham: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
  • Huntingdon: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
  • Romford: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
  • Chester South and Eddisbury: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
  • Epsom and Ewell: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
  • Reigate: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
  • Witney: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
  • Wokingham: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
  • Exmouth and Exeter East: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
  • Glastonbury and Somerton: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
  • North Devon: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
  • Poole: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
  • South East Cornwall: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
  • North Shropshire: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
  • Redditch: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
  • Staffordshire Moorlands: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
  • Aberdeenshire North and Moray East: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
• Labour
  • Corby and East Northamptonshire: Likely Labour -> Safe Labour
  • Harrow East: Likely Labour -> Safe Labour
  • Bishop Auckland: Likely Labour -> Safe Labour
  • South Ribble: Likely Labour -> Safe Labour
  • Crawley: Likely Labour -> Safe Labour
  • East Thanet: Likely Labour -> Safe Labour
  • Leeds South West and Morley: Likely Labour -> Safe Labour
  • Penistone and Stocksbridge: Likely Labour -> Safe Labour
  • Rother Valley: Likely Labour -> Safe Labour
  • Cowdenbeath and Kirkcaldy: Likely Labour -> Safe Labour
  • Lothian East: Likely Labour -> Safe Labour
  • Bassetlaw: Lean Labour -> Likely Labour
  • Northampton South: Lean Labour -> Likely Labour
  • Hemel Hempstead: Lean Labour -> Likely Labour
  • Southend East and Rochford: Lean Labour -> Likely Labour
  • Thurrock: Lean Labour -> Likely Labour
  • Croydon South: Lean Labour -> Likely Labour
  • Worthing West: Lean Labour -> Likely Labour
  • Plymouth Moor View: Lean Labour -> Likely Labour
  • Swindon North: Lean Labour -> Likely Labour
  • Halesowen: Lean Labour -> Likely Labour
  • Rugby: Lean Labour -> Likely Labour
  • Stafford: Lean Labour -> Likely Labour
  • Glasgow South: Lean Labour -> Likely Labour
  • Motherwell, Wishaw and Carluke: Lean Labour -> Likely Labour
• Liberal Democrats
  • Harrogate and Knaresborough: Lean Liberal Democrats -> Toss-Up
• SNP
  • Angus and Perthshire Glens: Likely SNP -> Lean SNP
• Toss-Ups
  • Harborough, Oadby and Wigston: Toss-Up -> Lean Labour
  • Sherwood Forest: Toss-Up -> Lean Labour
  • Southend West and Leigh: Toss-Up -> Lean Labour
  • Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner: Toss-Up -> Lean Labour
  • Aylesbury: Toss-Up -> Lean Labour
  • Bracknell: Toss-Up -> Lean Labour
  • Dartford: Toss-Up -> Lean Labour
  • Horsham: Toss-Up -> Lean Conservative
  • Isle of Wight West: Toss-Up -> Lean Labour
  • Rochester and Strood: Toss-Up -> Lean Labour
  • Central Devon: Toss-Up -> Lean Labour
  • Forest of Dean: Toss-Up -> Lean Labour
  • Frome and East Somerset: Toss-Up -> Lean Labour
  • Wells and Mendip Hills: Toss-Up -> Lean Conservative
  • Central Ayrshire: Toss-Up -> Lean SNP
  • Edinburgh East and Musselburgh: Toss-Up -> Lean Labour
  • Edinburgh North and Leith: Toss-Up -> Lean Labour
  • Glenrothes and Mid Fife: Toss-Up -> Lean Labour
  • Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey: Toss-Up -> Lean SNP
  • North East Fife: Toss-Up -> Lean Liberal Democrats
  • Perth and Kinross-shire: Toss-Up -> Lean SNP

9th May 2024

Changes in seat classification (Conservatives +10, Labour -4, Liberal Democrats -1, Toss-Up -5:)

• Conservatives
  • Bury St Edmunds and Stowmarket: Lean Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • Mid Norfolk: Lean Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • North Bedfordshire: Lean Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • South Basildon and East Thurrock: Lean Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • Orpington: Lean Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • Chatham and Aylesford: Lean Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • Chichester: Lean Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • East Grinstead and Uckfield: Lean Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • North Cotswolds: Lean Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • South West Devon: Lean Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • Torridge and Tavistock: Lean Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • Hereford and South Herefordshire: Lean Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • Meriden and Solihull East: Lean Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • Wells and Mendip Hills: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
• Labour
  • Corby and East Northamptonshire: Safe Labour -> Likely Labour
  • East Thanet: Safe Labour -> Likely Labour
  • Croydon South: Likely Labour -> Lean Labour
  • Worthing West: Likely Labour -> Lean Labour
  • Rugby: Likely Labour -> Lean Labour
  • Stafford: Likely Labour -> Lean Labour
  • Harborough, Oadby and Wigston: Lean Labour -> Toss-Up
  • Southend West and Leigh: Lean Labour -> Toss-Up
  • Bracknell: Lean Labour -> Toss-Up
  • Rochester and Strood: Lean Labour -> Toss-Up
• Liberal Democrats
  • Taunton and Wellington: Lean Liberal Democrats -> Toss-Up
• Toss-Ups
  • Broadland and Fakenham: Toss-Up -> Lean Conservative
  • Chester South and Eddisbury: Toss-Up -> Lean Conservative
  • Epsom and Ewell: Toss-Up -> Lean Conservative
  • Reigate: Toss-Up -> Lean Conservative
  • Wokingham: Toss-Up -> Lean Conservative
  • Exmouth and Exeter East: Toss-Up -> Lean Conservative
  • Glastonbury and Somerton: Toss-Up -> Lean Conservative
  • North Devon: Toss-Up -> Lean Conservative
  • Poole: Toss-Up -> Lean Conservative
  • Thornbury and Yate: Toss-Up -> Lean Conservative
  • Staffordshire Moorlands: Toss-Up -> Lean Conservative

7th May 2024

Changes in seat classification (Conservatives -3, Toss-Up +3):

• Conservatives
  • North Bedfordshire: Likely Conservative -> Lean Conservative
  • South Basildon and East Thurrock: Likely Conservative -> Lean Conservative
  • Newbury: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
  • Wokingham: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
  • Glastonbury and Somerton: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
  • North Devon: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
  • Thornbury and Yate: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
• Labour
  • Corby and East Northamptonshire: Likely Labour -> Safe Labour
  • Worthing West: Lean Labour -> Likely Labour
  • Stafford: Lean Labour -> Likely Labour
• Liberal Democrats
  • St Ives: Lean Liberal Democrats -> Likely Liberal Democrats
• Toss-Ups
  • Wells and Mendip Hills: Toss-Up -> Lean Conservative
  • Aberdeenshire North and Moray East: Toss-Up -> Lean Conservative

2nd May 2024

Changes in seat classification (Conservatives +12, Labour -8, Liberal Democrats -1, Toss-Up -3):

• Conservatives
  • Louth and Horncastle: Likely Conservative -> Safe Conservative
  • Brentwood and Ongar: Likely Conservative -> Safe Conservative
  • South Northamptonshire: Lean Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • North Bedfordshire: Lean Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • South Basildon and East Thurrock: Lean Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • South Suffolk: Lean Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • West Suffolk: Lean Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • Hornchurch and Upminster: Lean Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • Bognor Regis and Littlehampton: Lean Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • Faversham and Mid Kent: Lean Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • North West Hampshire: Lean Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • Mid Dorset and North Poole: Lean Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • Torbay: Lean Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • Bromsgrove: Lean Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • Cannock Chase: Lean Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • Lichfield: Lean Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • Wyre Forest: Lean Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • Horsham: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
• Labour
  • Corby and East Northamptonshire: Safe Labour -> Likely Labour
  • Bishop Auckland: Safe Labour -> Likely Labour
  • Crawley: Safe Labour -> Likely Labour
  • Leeds South West and Morley: Safe Labour -> Likely Labour
  • Penistone and Stocksbridge: Safe Labour -> Likely Labour
  • Lothian East: Safe Labour -> Likely Labour
  • Northampton South: Likely Labour -> Lean Labour
  • Hemel Hempstead: Likely Labour -> Lean Labour
  • Thurrock: Likely Labour -> Lean Labour
  • Worthing West: Likely Labour -> Lean Labour
  • Plymouth Moor View: Likely Labour -> Lean Labour
  • Halesowen: Likely Labour -> Lean Labour
  • Stafford: Likely Labour -> Lean Labour
  • Sherwood Forest: Lean Labour -> Toss-Up
  • Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner: Lean Labour -> Toss-Up
  • Aylesbury: Lean Labour -> Toss-Up
  • Dartford: Lean Labour -> Toss-Up
  • Isle of Wight West: Lean Labour -> Toss-Up
  • Central Devon: Lean Labour -> Toss-Up
  • Forest of Dean: Lean Labour -> Toss-Up
  • Frome and East Somerset: Lean Labour -> Toss-Up
• Liberal Democrats
  • Hazel Grove: Lean Liberal Democrats -> Toss-Up
• Toss-Ups
  • Newark: Toss-Up -> Lean Conservative
  • Huntingdon: Toss-Up -> Lean Conservative
  • Romford: Toss-Up -> Lean Conservative
  • Maidstone and Malling: Toss-Up -> Lean Conservative
  • Newbury: Toss-Up -> Lean Conservative
  • Witney: Toss-Up -> Lean Conservative
  • Wokingham: Toss-Up -> Lean Conservative
  • Glastonbury and Somerton: Toss-Up -> Lean Conservative
  • North Devon: Toss-Up -> Lean Conservative
  • South East Cornwall: Toss-Up -> Lean Conservative
  • North Shropshire: Toss-Up -> Lean Conservative
  • North Warwickshire and Bedworth: Toss-Up -> Lean Conservative
  • Redditch: Toss-Up -> Lean Conservative

30th April 2024

Changes in seat classification (Conservatives -7, Labour +8, Liberal Democrats +1, Toss-Up -2):

• Conservatives
  • Louth and Horncastle: Safe Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • South Northamptonshire: Likely Conservative -> Lean Conservative
  • South Suffolk: Likely Conservative -> Lean Conservative
  • Hornchurch and Upminster: Likely Conservative -> Lean Conservative
  • Bognor Regis and Littlehampton: Likely Conservative -> Lean Conservative
  • Faversham and Mid Kent: Likely Conservative -> Lean Conservative
  • Bromsgrove: Likely Conservative -> Lean Conservative
  • Cannock Chase: Likely Conservative -> Lean Conservative
  • Lichfield: Likely Conservative -> Lean Conservative
  • Newark: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
  • Romford: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
  • Maidstone and Malling: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
  • Witney: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
  • North Shropshire: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
  • North Warwickshire and Bedworth: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
  • Redditch: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
  • Aberdeenshire North and Moray East: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
• Labour
  • Bishop Auckland: Likely Labour -> Safe Labour
  • Crawley: Likely Labour -> Safe Labour
  • Leeds South West and Morley: Likely Labour -> Safe Labour
  • Penistone and Stocksbridge: Likely Labour -> Safe Labour
  • Lothian East: Likely Labour -> Safe Labour
  • Northampton South: Lean Labour -> Likely Labour
  • Hemel Hempstead: Lean Labour -> Likely Labour
  • Thurrock: Lean Labour -> Likely Labour
  • Plymouth Moor View: Lean Labour -> Likely Labour
  • Halesowen: Lean Labour -> Likely Labour
  • Stafford: Lean Labour -> Likely Labour
• SNP
  • Angus and Perthshire Glens: Lean SNP -> Likely SNP
• Toss-Ups
  • Horsham: Toss-Up -> Lean Conservative
  • Sherwood Forest: Toss-Up -> Lean Labour
  • Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner: Toss-Up -> Lean Labour
  • Aylesbury: Toss-Up -> Lean Labour
  • Dartford: Toss-Up -> Lean Labour
  • Isle of Wight West: Toss-Up -> Lean Labour
  • Central Devon: Toss-Up -> Lean Labour
  • Forest of Dean: Toss-Up -> Lean Labour
  • Frome and East Somerset: Toss-Up -> Lean Labour
  • Hazel Grove: Toss-Up -> Lean Liberal Democrats

25th April 2024

Changes in seat classification (Conservatives -1, Labour -1, Toss-Up +2):

• Conservatives
  • Brentwood and Ongar: Safe Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • Mid Dorset and North Poole: Likely Conservative -> Lean Conservative
  • Bromsgrove: Lean Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • Wokingham: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
• Labour
  • Leeds South West and Morley: Safe Labour -> Likely Labour
  • Llanelli: Likely Labour -> Safe Labour
  • Northampton South: Likely Labour -> Lean Labour
  • Stafford: Likely Labour -> Lean Labour
  • Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner: Lean Labour -> Toss-Up
• Plaid Cymru
  • Dwyfor Meirionnydd: Likely Plaid Cymru -> Safe Plaid Cymru

23rd April 2024

Changes in seat classification (Labour +2, Toss-Up -2):

• Conservatives
  • Louth and Horncastle: Likely Conservative -> Safe Conservative
  • Brentwood and Ongar: Likely Conservative -> Safe Conservative
  • Bromsgrove: Likely Conservative -> Lean Conservative
  • Wyre Forest: Likely Conservative -> Lean Conservative
  • Mid Dorset and North Poole: Lean Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • Huntingdon: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
  • South East Cornwall: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
• Labour
  • Llanelli: Safe Labour -> Likely Labour
  • Corby and East Northamptonshire: Likely Labour -> Safe Labour
  • Uxbridge and South Ruislip: Likely Labour -> Safe Labour
  • East Thanet: Likely Labour -> Safe Labour
  • Filton and Bradley Stoke: Likely Labour -> Safe Labour
  • Kingston upon Hull West and Haltemprice: Likely Labour -> Safe Labour
  • Leeds South West and Morley: Likely Labour -> Safe Labour
  • Alyn and Deeside: Likely Labour -> Safe Labour
  • Northampton South: Lean Labour -> Likely Labour
  • Croydon South: Lean Labour -> Likely Labour
  • Worthing West: Lean Labour -> Likely Labour
  • Rugby: Lean Labour -> Likely Labour
  • Stafford: Lean Labour -> Likely Labour
• SNP
  • Angus and Perthshire Glens: Likely SNP -> Lean SNP
• Toss-Ups
  • Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner: Toss-Up -> Lean Labour
  • Bracknell: Toss-Up -> Lean Labour
  • Wokingham: Toss-Up -> Lean Conservative
  • Thornbury and Yate: Toss-Up -> Lean Conservative

18th April 2024

Changes in seat classification (Conservatives -1, Labour -5, SNP +2, Toss-Up +4):

• Conservatives
  • South Northamptonshire: Lean Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • South Suffolk: Lean Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • Bromsgrove: Lean Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • Wyre Forest: Lean Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • Horsham: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
  • Thornbury and Yate: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
  • Wells and Mendip Hills: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
  • Dumfries and Galloway: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
  • West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
• Labour
  • Corby and East Northamptonshire: Safe Labour -> Likely Labour
  • Uxbridge and South Ruislip: Safe Labour -> Likely Labour
  • East Thanet: Safe Labour -> Likely Labour
  • Filton and Bradley Stoke: Safe Labour -> Likely Labour
  • Kingston upon Hull West and Haltemprice: Safe Labour -> Likely Labour
  • Leeds South West and Morley: Safe Labour -> Likely Labour
  • Alyn and Deeside: Safe Labour -> Likely Labour
  • Northampton South: Likely Labour -> Lean Labour
  • Hemel Hempstead: Likely Labour -> Lean Labour
  • Thurrock: Likely Labour -> Lean Labour
  • Croydon South: Likely Labour -> Lean Labour
  • Worthing West: Likely Labour -> Lean Labour
  • Rugby: Likely Labour -> Lean Labour
  • Stafford: Likely Labour -> Lean Labour
  • Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner: Lean Labour -> Toss-Up
  • Aylesbury: Lean Labour -> Toss-Up
  • Bracknell: Lean Labour -> Toss-Up
  • Central Devon: Lean Labour -> Toss-Up
  • Forest of Dean: Lean Labour -> Toss-Up
• SNP
  • Angus and Perthshire Glens: Lean SNP -> Likely SNP
• Toss-Ups
  • Huntingdon: Toss-Up -> Lean Conservative
  • Romford: Toss-Up -> Lean Conservative
  • Witney: Toss-Up -> Lean Conservative
  • South East Cornwall: Toss-Up -> Lean Conservative
  • Aberdeen South: Toss-Up -> Lean SNP
  • Argyll, Bute and South Lochaber: Toss-Up -> Lean SNP

16th April 2024

Changes in seat classification (Conservatives +2, Labour +4, Liberal Democrats +1, SNP -1, Plaid Cymru +1, Toss-Up -7):

• Conservatives
  • Faversham and Mid Kent: Lean Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • Newton Abbot: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
• Labour
  • Corby and East Northamptonshire: Likely Labour -> Safe Labour
  • Doncaster North: Likely Labour -> Safe Labour
  • Kingston upon Hull West and Haltemprice: Likely Labour -> Safe Labour
  • Leeds South West and Morley: Likely Labour -> Safe Labour
  • Northampton South: Lean Labour -> Likely Labour
  • Hemel Hempstead: Lean Labour -> Likely Labour
  • Thurrock: Lean Labour -> Likely Labour
  • Croydon South: Lean Labour -> Likely Labour
  • Worthing West: Lean Labour -> Likely Labour
• SNP
  • Aberdeen South: Lean SNP -> Toss-Up
• Toss-Ups
  • Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner: Toss-Up -> Lean Labour
  • Aylesbury: Toss-Up -> Lean Labour
  • Horsham: Toss-Up -> Lean Conservative
  • Central Devon: Toss-Up -> Lean Labour
  • Forest of Dean: Toss-Up -> Lean Labour
  • Dumfries and Galloway: Toss-Up -> Lean Conservative
  • Edinburgh West: Toss-Up -> Lean Liberal Democrats
  • West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine: Toss-Up -> Lean Conservative
  • Ceredigion Preseli: Toss-Up -> Lean Plaid Cymru

11th April 2024

Changes in seat classification (SNP -1, Plaid Cymru -1, Toss-Up +2):

• Conservatives
  • Hornchurch and Upminster: Lean Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • Horsham: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
  • Dumfries and Galloway: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
• Labour
  • Corby and East Northamptonshire: Safe Labour -> Likely Labour
  • Llanelli: Likely Labour -> Safe Labour
  • Northampton South: Likely Labour -> Lean Labour
  • Hemel Hempstead: Likely Labour -> Lean Labour
  • Thurrock: Likely Labour -> Lean Labour
  • Croydon South: Likely Labour -> Lean Labour
  • Worthing West: Likely Labour -> Lean Labour
  • Hamilton and Clyde Valley: Lean Labour -> Likely Labour
  • Na h-Eileanan an Iar: Lean Labour -> Likely Labour
  • Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner: Lean Labour -> Toss-Up
  • Central Devon: Lean Labour -> Toss-Up
  • Forest of Dean: Lean Labour -> Toss-Up
• Liberal Democrats
  • St Ives: Likely Liberal Democrats -> Lean Liberal Democrats
• SNP
  • Angus and Perthshire Glens: Likely SNP -> Lean SNP
  • Argyll, Bute and South Lochaber: Lean SNP -> Toss-Up
• Plaid Cymru
  • Ceredigion Preseli: Lean Plaid Cymru -> Toss-Up
• Toss-Ups
  • Maidstone and Malling: Toss-Up -> Lean Conservative
  • Romsey and Southampton North: Toss-Up -> Lean Conservative
  • Dunfermline and Dollar: Toss-Up -> Lean Labour
  • Glasgow West: Toss-Up -> Lean Labour
  • West Dunbartonshire: Toss-Up -> Lean Labour

9th April 2024

Changes in seat classification (Conservatives +1, Labour +3, Liberal Democrats -1, Toss-Up -3):

• Conservatives
  • Hornchurch and Upminster: Likely Conservative -> Lean Conservative
  • Maidstone and Malling: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
  • Romsey and Southampton North: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
• Labour
  • Corby and East Northamptonshire: Likely Labour -> Safe Labour
  • Northampton South: Lean Labour -> Likely Labour
  • Hemel Hempstead: Lean Labour -> Likely Labour
  • Thurrock: Lean Labour -> Likely Labour
  • Croydon South: Lean Labour -> Likely Labour
  • Stafford: Lean Labour -> Likely Labour
  • Glasgow East: Lean Labour -> Likely Labour
• Liberal Democrats
  • St Ives: Lean Liberal Democrats -> Likely Liberal Democrats
  • Edinburgh West: Lean Liberal Democrats -> Toss-Up
• SNP
  • Dundee Central: Likely SNP -> Lean SNP
• Toss-Ups
  • Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner: Toss-Up -> Lean Labour
  • Horsham: Toss-Up -> Lean Conservative
  • Central Devon: Toss-Up -> Lean Labour
  • Forest of Dean: Toss-Up -> Lean Labour
  • Aberdeenshire North and Moray East: Toss-Up -> Lean Conservative
  • Dumfries and Galloway: Toss-Up -> Lean Conservative

4th April 2024

Changes in seat classification (Conservatives -1, Labour +1, Liberal Democrats +1, Toss-Up -1):

• Conservatives
  • South Suffolk : Likely Conservative -> Lean Conservative
  • Bromsgrove : Likely Conservative -> Lean Conservative
  • Romford : Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
• Labour
  • Llanelli : Safe Labour -> Likely Labour
  • Uxbridge and South Ruislip : Likely Labour -> Safe Labour
  • East Thanet : Likely Labour -> Safe Labour
  • Worthing West : Lean Labour -> Likely Labour
  • Bracknell : Toss-Up -> Lean Labour
• Toss-Ups
  • Edinburgh West : Toss-Up -> Lean Liberal Democrats

2nd April 2024

Changes in seat classification (Conservatives -3, Labour +1, Liberal Democrats -1, Plaid Cymru +1, Toss-Up +2):

• Conservatives
  • Faversham and Mid Kent: Likely Conservative -> Lean Conservative
  • Bromsgrove: Lean Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • Witney: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
  • South East Cornwall: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
  • Aberdeenshire North and Moray East: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
• Labour
  • Filton and Bradley Stoke: Likely Labour -> Safe Labour
  • Llanelli: Likely Labour -> Safe Labour
  • Glasgow East: Likely Labour -> Lean Labour
• Liberal Democrats
  • Edinburgh West: Lean Liberal Democrats -> Toss-Up
• SNP
  • Edinburgh South West: Likely SNP -> Lean SNP
• Toss-Ups
  • Ceredigion Preseli: Toss-Up -> Lean Plaid Cymru
  • Harborough, Oadby and Wigston: Toss-Up -> Lean Labour

28th March 2024

Changes in seat classification (Conservatives +1, Labour -2, Toss-Up -1):

• Conservatives
  • Louth and Horncastle: Safe Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • Faversham and Mid Kent: Lean Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • Dumfries and Galloway: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
• Labour
  • Filton and Bradley Stoke: Safe Labour -> Likely Labour
  • Alyn and Deeside: Likely Labour -> Safe Labour
  • Worthing West: Likely Labour -> Lean Labour
  • Glasgow East: Lean Labour -> Likely Labour
  • Harborough, Oadby and Wigston: Lean Labour -> Toss-Up
  • Bracknell: Lean Labour -> Toss-Up
• Liberal Democrats
  • St Ives: Likely Liberal Democrats -> Lean Liberal Democrats
• SNP
  • Edinburgh South West: Lean SNP -> Likely SNP
• Toss-Ups
  • Witney: Toss-Up -> Lean Conservative
  • South East Cornwall: Toss-Up -> Lean Conservative

26th March 2024

Changes in seat classification (Conservatives +3, Labour +1, Liberal Democrats +1, Toss-Up -5):

• Conservatives
  • Louth and Horncastle: Likely Conservative -> Safe Conservative
  • South Suffolk: Lean Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • Horsham: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
  • Witney: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
  • Wokingham: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
• Labour
  • Doncaster North: Safe Labour -> Likely Labour
  • Barrow and Furness: Likely Labour -> Safe Labour
  • Filton and Bradley Stoke: Likely Labour -> Safe Labour
  • Colne Valley: Likely Labour -> Safe Labour
  • Worthing West: Lean Labour -> Likely Labour
• Liberal Democrats
  • Westmorland and Lonsdale: Lean Liberal Democrats -> Likely Liberal Democrats
  • St Ives: Lean Liberal Democrats -> Likely Liberal Democrats
• Toss-Ups
  • Romford: Toss-Up -> Lean Conservative
  • Rochester and Strood: Toss-Up -> Lean Labour
  • Newton Abbot: Toss-Up -> Lean Conservative
  • Thornbury and Yate: Toss-Up -> Lean Conservative
  • Wells and Mendip Hills: Toss-Up -> Lean Conservative
  • Aberdeenshire North and Moray East: Toss-Up -> Lean Conservative
  • Dumfries and Galloway: Toss-Up -> Lean Conservative
  • Edinburgh West: Toss-Up -> Lean Liberal Democrats

21st March 2024

Changes in seat classification (Conservatives +4 Labour -5, Liberal Democrats -1, Plaid Cymru -1, Toss-Up +3):

• Conservatives
  • Waveney Valley: Lean Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • Hornchurch and Upminster: Lean Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • Arundel and South Downs: Lean Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • Bognor Regis and Littlehampton: Lean Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • Cannock Chase: Lean Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • Lichfield: Lean Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • West Worcestershire: Lean Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • Thornbury and Yate: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
  • Wells and Mendip Hills: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
• Labour
  • Corby and East Northamptonshire: Safe Labour -> Likely Labour
  • Uxbridge and South Ruislip: Safe Labour -> Likely Labour
  • Barrow and Furness: Safe Labour -> Likely Labour
  • East Thanet: Safe Labour -> Likely Labour
  • Filton and Bradley Stoke: Safe Labour -> Likely Labour
  • Colne Valley: Safe Labour -> Likely Labour
  • Kingston upon Hull West and Haltemprice: Safe Labour -> Likely Labour
  • Northampton South: Likely Labour -> Lean Labour
  • Hemel Hempstead: Likely Labour -> Lean Labour
  • Thurrock: Likely Labour -> Lean Labour
  • Croydon South: Likely Labour -> Lean Labour
  • Worthing West: Likely Labour -> Lean Labour
  • Stafford: Likely Labour -> Lean Labour
  • Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner: Lean Labour -> Toss-Up
  • Aylesbury: Lean Labour -> Toss-Up
  • Rochester and Strood: Lean Labour -> Toss-Up
  • Central Devon: Lean Labour -> Toss-Up
  • Forest of Dean: Lean Labour -> Toss-Up
• Liberal Democrats
  • Westmorland and Lonsdale: Likely Liberal Democrats -> Lean Liberal Democrats
  • Edinburgh West: Lean Liberal Democrats -> Toss-Up
• SNP
  • Dundee Central: Lean SNP -> Likely SNP
• Plaid Cymru
  • Ceredigion Preseli: Lean Plaid Cymru -> Toss-Up
• Toss-Ups
  • Chesham and Amersham: Toss-Up -> Lean Conservative
  • Romsey and Southampton North: Toss-Up -> Lean Conservative
  • Witney: Toss-Up -> Lean Conservative
  • Wokingham: Toss-Up -> Lean Conservative
  • Kenilworth and Southam: Toss-Up -> Lean Conservative
  • Redditch: Toss-Up -> Lean Conservative

19th March 2024

Two methodology changes were applied for this run of the model. The first change is that the model uses the latest poll from Northern Ireland instead of relying on previous results. We have chosen to use the polling we have avaliable for Northern Ireland even though it does not meet the standards we require for polling from other parts of the UK.

The second relates to which candidates are standing in each seat; The only affect of this change was to move Exmouth and Exeter East to Toss-Up. This reflects the fact that indepedendent candidate Claire Wright will not stand in the next election having come second in 2019 with 25 869 votes. More changes to the methodology will happen as it becomes clearer which seats each party will contest.

Changes in seat classification (Conservatives -12 Labour +13, Liberal Democrats +1, Indepedent -1, Toss-Up +1):

• Conservatives
  • Louth and Horncastle: Safe Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • Brentwood and Ongar: Safe Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • South Northamptonshire: Likely Conservative -> Lean Conservative
  • Bury St Edmunds and Stowmarket: Likely Conservative -> Lean Conservative
  • Mid Norfolk: Likely Conservative -> Lean Conservative
  • North Bedfordshire: Likely Conservative -> Lean Conservative
  • South Basildon and East Thurrock: Likely Conservative -> Lean Conservative
  • South Suffolk: Likely Conservative -> Lean Conservative
  • Waveney Valley: Likely Conservative -> Lean Conservative
  • West Suffolk: Likely Conservative -> Lean Conservative
  • Hornchurch and Upminster: Likely Conservative -> Lean Conservative
  • Orpington: Likely Conservative -> Lean Conservative
  • Arundel and South Downs: Likely Conservative -> Lean Conservative
  • Bognor Regis and Littlehampton: Likely Conservative -> Lean Conservative
  • Chatham and Aylesford: Likely Conservative -> Lean Conservative
  • Faversham and Mid Kent: Likely Conservative -> Lean Conservative
  • North West Hampshire: Likely Conservative -> Lean Conservative
  • Bromsgrove: Likely Conservative -> Lean Conservative
  • Cannock Chase: Likely Conservative -> Lean Conservative
  • Hereford and South Herefordshire: Likely Conservative -> Lean Conservative
  • Lichfield: Likely Conservative -> Lean Conservative
  • West Worcestershire: Likely Conservative -> Lean Conservative
  • Wyre Forest: Likely Conservative -> Lean Conservative
  • Huntingdon: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
  • Romford: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
  • Chesham and Amersham: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
  • Newbury: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
  • Romsey and Southampton North: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
  • Witney: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
  • Wokingham: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
  • Newton Abbot: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
  • Poole: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
  • South East Cornwall: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
  • Kenilworth and Southam: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
  • Redditch: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
  • Staffordshire Moorlands: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
• Labour
  • Corby and East Northamptonshire: Likely Labour -> Safe Labour
  • Uxbridge and South Ruislip: Likely Labour -> Safe Labour
  • Barrow and Furness: Likely Labour -> Safe Labour
  • East Thanet: Likely Labour -> Safe Labour
  • Filton and Bradley Stoke: Likely Labour -> Safe Labour
  • Colne Valley: Likely Labour -> Safe Labour
  • Kingston upon Hull West and Haltemprice: Likely Labour -> Safe Labour
  • Glasgow East: Likely Labour -> Lean Labour
  • North East Derbyshire: Lean Labour -> Likely Labour
  • Northampton South: Lean Labour -> Likely Labour
  • Hemel Hempstead: Lean Labour -> Likely Labour
  • Thurrock: Lean Labour -> Likely Labour
  • Croydon South: Lean Labour -> Likely Labour
  • Morecambe and Lunesdale: Lean Labour -> Likely Labour
  • Buckingham and Bletchley: Lean Labour -> Likely Labour
  • Worthing West: Lean Labour -> Likely Labour
  • Rugby: Lean Labour -> Likely Labour
  • Stafford: Lean Labour -> Likely Labour
• SNP
  • Angus and Perthshire Glens: Lean SNP -> Likely SNP
• Independent
  • Exmouth and Exeter East: Likely Independent -> Toss-Up
• Toss-Ups
  • Horsham: Toss-Up -> Lean Conservative
  • Harborough, Oadby and Wigston: Toss-Up -> Lean Labour
  • Southend West and Leigh: Toss-Up -> Lean Labour
  • Bromley and Biggin Hill: Toss-Up -> Lean Labour
  • Finchley and Golders Green: Toss-Up -> Lean Labour
  • Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner: Toss-Up -> Lean Labour
  • Aylesbury: Toss-Up -> Lean Labour
  • Bracknell: Toss-Up -> Lean Labour
  • Folkestone and Hythe: Toss-Up -> Lean Labour
  • Rochester and Strood: Toss-Up -> Lean Labour
  • Central Devon: Toss-Up -> Lean Labour
  • Forest of Dean: Toss-Up -> Lean Labour
  • Weston-Super-Mare: Toss-Up -> Lean Labour
  • Burton and Uttoxeter: Toss-Up -> Lean Labour
  • Edinburgh West: Toss-Up -> Lean Liberal Democrats

14th March 2024

Changes in seat classification (Conservatives +5, Labour -8, Liberal Democrats +1, Plaid Cymru -1, Toss-Up +3):

• Conservatives
  • Louth and Horncastle: Likely Conservative -> Safe Conservative
  • Brentwood and Ongar: Likely Conservative -> Safe Conservative
  • South Northamptonshire: Lean Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • Bury St Edmunds and Stowmarket: Lean Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • Mid Norfolk: Lean Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • North Bedfordshire: Lean Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • South Basildon and East Thurrock: Lean Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • South Suffolk: Lean Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • West Suffolk: Lean Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • Orpington: Lean Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • Chatham and Aylesford: Lean Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • Faversham and Mid Kent: Lean Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • North West Hampshire: Lean Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • Bromsgrove: Lean Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • Hereford and South Herefordshire: Lean Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • Wyre Forest: Lean Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • Aberdeenshire North and Moray East: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
• Labour
  • Kingston upon Hull West and Haltemprice: Safe Labour -> Likely Labour
  • North East Derbyshire: Likely Labour -> Lean Labour
  • Morecambe and Lunesdale: Likely Labour -> Lean Labour
  • Buckingham and Bletchley: Likely Labour -> Lean Labour
  • Rugby: Likely Labour -> Lean Labour
  • Harborough, Oadby and Wigston: Lean Labour -> Toss-Up
  • Southend West and Leigh: Lean Labour -> Toss-Up
  • Bromley and Biggin Hill: Lean Labour -> Toss-Up
  • Finchley and Golders Green: Lean Labour -> Toss-Up
  • Folkestone and Hythe: Lean Labour -> Toss-Up
  • Weston-Super-Mare: Lean Labour -> Toss-Up
  • Burton and Uttoxeter: Lean Labour -> Toss-Up
  • Ynys Môn: Lean Labour -> Toss-Up
• Liberal Democrats
  • South Cambridgeshire: Lean Liberal Democrats -> Likely Liberal Democrats
  • Westmorland and Lonsdale: Lean Liberal Democrats -> Likely Liberal Democrats
  • Hazel Grove: Lean Liberal Democrats -> Toss-Up
• Independent
  • Exmouth and Exeter East: Lean Independent -> Likely Independent
• Toss-Ups
  • Huntingdon: Toss-Up -> Lean Conservative
  • Newton Abbot: Toss-Up -> Lean Conservative
  • Poole: Toss-Up -> Lean Conservative
  • Thornbury and Yate: Toss-Up -> Lean Conservative
  • Wells and Mendip Hills: Toss-Up -> Lean Conservative
  • Staffordshire Moorlands: Toss-Up -> Lean Conservative
  • Ceredigion Preseli: Toss-Up -> Lean Plaid Cymru

12th March 2024

Changes in seat classification (Conservatives +4, Liberal Democrats +1, Plaid Cymru -1, Toss-Up -4):

• Conservatives
  • Hornchurch and Upminster: Lean Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • Horsham: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
• Labour
  • Barrow and Furness: Safe Labour -> Likely Labour
  • Alyn and Deeside: Safe Labour -> Likely Labour
  • Rochester and Strood: Lean Labour -> Toss-Up
  • Glasgow East: Lean Labour -> Likely Labour
• Plaid Cymru
  • Ceredigion Preseli: Lean Plaid Cymru -> Toss-Up
• Toss-Up
  • Romford: Toss-Up -> Lean Conservative
  • Hazel Grove: Toss-Up -> Lean Liberal Democrats
  • Newbury: Toss-Up -> Lean Conservative
  • Witney: Toss-Up -> Lean Conservative
  • South East Cornwall: Toss-Up -> Lean Conservative
  • Aberdeenshire North and Moray East: Toss-Up -> Lean Conservative
  • Ynys Môn: Toss-Up -> Lean Labour

7th March 2024

Changes in seat classification (Conservatives -13, Labour +9, Liberal Democrats +1, Plaid Cymru +1, Toss-Up +2):

• Conservatives
  • Louth and Horncastle: Safe Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • South Northamptonshire: Likely Conservative -> Lean Conservative
  • Bury St Edmunds and Stowmarket: Likely Conservative -> Lean Conservative
  • Mid Norfolk: Likely Conservative -> Lean Conservative
  • North Bedfordshire: Likely Conservative -> Lean Conservative
  • South Basildon and East Thurrock: Likely Conservative -> Lean Conservative
  • South Suffolk: Likely Conservative -> Lean Conservative
  • West Suffolk: Likely Conservative -> Lean Conservative
  • Hornchurch and Upminster: Likely Conservative -> Lean Conservative
  • Orpington: Likely Conservative -> Lean Conservative
  • Faversham and Mid Kent: Likely Conservative -> Lean Conservative
  • North West Hampshire: Likely Conservative -> Lean Conservative
  • Mid Dorset and North Poole: Likely Conservative -> Lean Conservative
  • Torbay: Likely Conservative -> Lean Conservative
  • Bromsgrove: Likely Conservative -> Lean Conservative
  • Wyre Forest: Likely Conservative -> Lean Conservative
  • Amber Valley: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
  • Broadland and Fakenham: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
  • Huntingdon: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
  • Romford: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
  • Chester South and Eddisbury: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
  • Beaconsfield: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
  • Epsom and Ewell: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
  • Newbury: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
  • Witney: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
  • Glastonbury and Somerton: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
  • Poole: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
  • South East Cornwall: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
  • Thornbury and Yate: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
  • Staffordshire Moorlands: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
• Labour
  • Barrow and Furness: Likely Labour -> Safe Labour
  • Southport: Likely Labour -> Safe Labour
  • East Worthing and Shoreham: Likely Labour -> Safe Labour
  • Shrewsbury: Likely Labour -> Safe Labour
  • Spen Valley: Likely Labour -> Safe Labour
  • Glasgow East: Likely Labour -> Lean Labour
  • Alyn and Deeside: Likely Labour -> Safe Labour
  • North East Derbyshire: Lean Labour -> Likely Labour
  • Morecambe and Lunesdale: Lean Labour -> Likely Labour
  • Buckingham and Bletchley: Lean Labour -> Likely Labour
  • Frome and East Somerset: Lean Labour -> Toss-Up
  • Rugby: Lean Labour -> Likely Labour
  • Telford: Lean Labour -> Likely Labour
• Toss-Up
  • Harborough, Oadby and Wigston: Toss-Up -> Lean Labour
  • Southend West and Leigh: Toss-Up -> Lean Labour
  • Bromley and Biggin Hill: Toss-Up -> Lean Labour
  • Finchley and Golders Green: Toss-Up -> Lean Labour
  • Folkestone and Hythe: Toss-Up -> Lean Labour
  • Horsham: Toss-Up -> Lean Conservative
  • Rochester and Strood: Toss-Up -> Lean Labour
  • Winchester: Toss-Up -> Lean Liberal Democrats
  • North Somerset: Toss-Up -> Lean Labour
  • St Austell and Newquay: Toss-Up -> Lean Labour
  • Burton and Uttoxeter: Toss-Up -> Lean Labour
  • Nuneaton: Toss-Up -> Lean Labour
  • Ceredigion Preseli: Toss-Up -> Lean Plaid Cymru

5th March 2024

Changes in seat classification (Conservatives +6, Labour -3, Liberal Democrats -1, Toss-Up -2):

• Conservatives
  • Mid Norfolk: Lean Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • North Bedfordshire: Lean Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • Mid Dorset and North Poole: Lean Conservative -> Likely Conservative
• Labour
  • Kingston upon Hull West and Haltemprice: Likely Labour -> Safe Labour
  • Glasgow East: Lean Labour -> Likely Labour
  • Finchley and Golders Green: Lean Labour -> Toss-Up
  • St Austell and Newquay: Lean Labour -> Toss-Up
  • Nuneaton: Lean Labour -> Toss-Up
• Liberal Democrats
  • Winchester: Lean Liberal Democrats -> Toss-Up
• Toss-Up
  • Amber Valley: Toss-Up -> Lean Conservative
  • Broadland and Fakenham: Toss-Up -> Lean Conservative
  • Chester South and Eddisbury: Toss-Up -> Lean Conservative
  • Beaconsfield: Toss-Up -> Lean Conservative
  • Epsom and Ewell: Toss-Up -> Lean Conservative
  • Glastonbury and Somerton: Toss-Up -> Lean Conservative

29th February 2024

Changes in seat classification (Conservatives -1, Labour -1, Liberal Democrats +1, Toss-Up +1):

• Conservatives
  • Louth and Horncastle: Likely Conservative -> Safe Conservative
  • Mid Dorset and North Poole: Likely Conservative -> Lean Conservative
  • Bury St Edmunds and Stowmarket: Lean Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • West Suffolk: Lean Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • Orpington: Lean Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • North West Hampshire: Lean Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • Glastonbury and Somerton: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
• Labour
  • Southport: Safe Labour -> Likely Labour
  • East Worthing and Shoreham: Safe Labour -> Likely Labour
  • Spen Valley: Safe Labour -> Likely Labour
  • Telford: Likely Labour -> Lean Labour
  • Glasgow East: Likely Labour -> Lean Labour
  • North Somerset: Lean Labour -> Toss-Up
• Toss-Up
  • Winchester: Toss-Up  -> Lean Liberal Democrats

27th February 2024

Changes in seat classification (Conservatives +16, Labour -8, Liberal Democrats -1, Toss-Up -7):

• Conservatives
  • Clacton: Likely Conservative -> Safe Conservative
  • Rayleigh and Wickford: Likely Conservative -> Safe Conservative
  • South Northamptonshire: Lean Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • Hertsmere: Lean Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • North West Norfolk: Lean Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • South Basildon and East Thurrock: Lean Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • South Suffolk: Lean Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • Waveney Valley: Lean Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • Hornchurch and Upminster: Lean Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • Arundel and South Downs: Lean Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • Bognor Regis and Littlehampton: Lean Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • East Hampshire: Lean Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • Faversham and Mid Kent: Lean Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • Mid Dorset and North Poole: Lean Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • Torbay: Lean Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • Bromsgrove: Lean Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • Cannock Chase: Lean Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • Lichfield: Lean Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • Tamworth: Lean Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • West Worcestershire: Lean Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • Wyre Forest: Lean Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • Horsham: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
  • Newton Abbot: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
• Labour
  • Barrow and Furness: Safe Labour -> Likely Labour
  • Shrewsbury: Safe Labour -> Likely Labour
  • North East Derbyshire: Likely Labour -> Lean Labour
  • Morecambe and Lunesdale: Likely Labour -> Lean Labour
  • Buckingham and Bletchley: Likely Labour -> Lean Labour
  • Worthing West: Likely Labour -> Lean Labour
  • Rugby: Likely Labour -> Lean Labour
  • Glasgow East: Lean Labour -> Likely Labour
  • Harborough, Oadby and Wigston: Lean Labour -> Toss-Up
  • Southend West and Leigh: Lean Labour -> Toss-Up
  • Bromley and Biggin Hill: Lean Labour -> Toss-Up
  • Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner: Lean Labour -> Toss-Up
  • Bracknell: Lean Labour -> Toss-Up
  • Folkestone and Hythe: Lean Labour -> Toss-Up
  • Rochester and Strood: Lean Labour -> Toss-Up
  • Forest of Dean: Lean Labour -> Toss-Up
  • Burton and Uttoxeter: Lean Labour -> Toss-Up
• Liberal Democrats
  • Winchester: Lean Liberal Democrats -> Toss-Up
• Toss-Up
  • Newark: Toss-Up  -> Lean Conservative
  • Huntingdon: Toss-Up  -> Lean Conservative
  • Romford: Toss-Up  -> Lean Conservative
  • Chesham and Amersham: Toss-Up  -> Lean Conservative
  • Maidenhead: Toss-Up  -> Lean Conservative
  • Maidstone and Malling: Toss-Up  -> Lean Conservative
  • Newbury: Toss-Up  -> Lean Conservative
  • Romsey and Southampton North: Toss-Up  -> Lean Conservative
  • Witney: Toss-Up  -> Lean Conservative
  • Wokingham: Toss-Up  -> Lean Conservative
  • Glastonbury and Somerton: Toss-Up  -> Lean Conservative
  • Poole: Toss-Up  -> Lean Conservative
  • South East Cornwall: Toss-Up  -> Lean Conservative
  • Kenilworth and Southam: Toss-Up  -> Lean Conservative
  • North Shropshire: Toss-Up  -> Lean Conservative
  • Redditch: Toss-Up  -> Lean Conservative
  • Staffordshire Moorlands: Toss-Up  -> Lean Conservative
  • Skipton and Ripon: Toss-Up  -> Lean Conservative
  • Frome and East Somerset: Toss-Up  -> Lean Labour

22nd February 2024

Changes in seat classification (Conservatives -9, Labour +3, Toss-Up +6):

• Conservative
  • Clacton: Safe Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • Rayleigh and Wickford: Safe Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • Hertsmere: Likely Conservative -> Lean Conservative
  • North West Norfolk: Likely Conservative -> Lean Conservative
  • Waveney Valley: Likely Conservative -> Lean Conservative
  • East Hampshire: Likely Conservative -> Lean Conservative
  • Cannock Chase: Likely Conservative -> Lean Conservative
  • Lichfield: Likely Conservative -> Lean Conservative
  • Tamworth: Likely Conservative -> Lean Conservative
  • Newark: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
  • Chesham and Amersham: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
  • Maidstone and Malling: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
  • Romsey and Southampton North: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
  • Wells and Mendip Hills: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
  • Kenilworth and Southam: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
  • North Shropshire: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
  • Redditch: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
  • Skipton and Ripon: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
• Labour
  • Glasgow East: Likely Labour -> Lean Labour
  • Barrow and Furness: Likely Labour -> Safe Labour
  • Worthing West: Lean Labour -> Likely Labour
  • Rugby: Lean Labour -> Likely Labour
• Toss-Up
  • Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner: Toss-Up  -> Lean Labour
  • Bracknell: Toss-Up  -> Lean Labour
  • Forest of Dean: Toss-Up  -> Lean Labour

20th February 2024

Changes in seat classification (Conservatives +3, Labour -1, Liberal Democrats -1, SNP +1, Toss-Up -2):

• Conservative
  • Clacton: Likely Conservative -> Safe Conservative
  • Waveney Valley: Lean Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • Cannock Chase: Lean Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • Lichfield: Lean Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • Maidenhead: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
  • Aberdeenshire North and Moray East: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
• Labour
  • Rugby: Likely Labour -> Lean Labour
  • Bracknell: Lean Labour -> Toss-Up
• Liberal Democrats
  • Hazel Grove: Lean Liberal Democrats -> Toss-Up
• Toss-Up
  • Romsey and Southampton North: Toss-Up  -> Lean Conservative
  • Newton Abbot: Toss-Up  -> Lean Conservative
  • Wells and Mendip Hills: Toss-Up  -> Lean Conservative
  • Kenilworth and Southam: Toss-Up  -> Lean Conservative
  • Redditch: Toss-Up  -> Lean Conservative
  • Argyll, Bute and South Lochaber: Toss-Up  -> Lean SNP

15th February 2024

Changes in seat classification (Conservatives +4, Labour -5, SNP -1, Toss-Up +2):

• Conservative
  • North West Norfolk: Lean Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • East Hampshire: Lean Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • Stratford-on-Avon: Lean Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr: Lean Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • Newton Abbot: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
  • Wells and Mendip Hills: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
• Labour
  • Barrow and Furness: Safe Labour -> Likely Labour
  • Filton and Bradley Stoke: Safe Labour -> Likely Labour
  • Alyn and Deeside: Safe Labour -> Likely Labour
  • Llanelli: Safe Labour -> Likely Labour
  • Worthing West: Likely Labour -> Lean Labour
  • Hamilton and Clyde Valley: Likely Labour -> Lean Labour
  • Na h-Eileanan an Iar: Likely Labour -> Lean Labour
  • Dunfermline and Dollar: Lean Labour -> Toss-Up
  • Glasgow West: Lean Labour -> Toss-Up
  • West Dunbartonshire: Lean Labour -> Toss-Up
  • Mid and South Pembrokeshire: Lean Labour -> Toss-Up
  • Ynys Môn: Lean Labour -> Toss-Up
• Liberal Democrats
  • Edinburgh West: Lean Liberal Democrats -> Toss-Up
• SNP
  • Angus and Perthshire Glens: Likely SNP -> Lean SNP
  • Argyll, Bute and South Lochaber: Lean SNP -> Toss-Up
• Independent
  • Exmouth and Exeter East: Likely Independent -> Lean Independent
• Toss-Up
  • Newark: Toss-Up  -> Lean Conservative
  • Chesham and Amersham: Toss-Up  -> Lean Conservative
  • Maidenhead: Toss-Up  -> Lean Conservative
  • Maidstone and Malling: Toss-Up  -> Lean Conservative
  • North Warwickshire and Bedworth: Toss-Up  -> Lean Conservative
  • Skipton and Ripon: Toss-Up  -> Lean Conservative
  • Hazel Grove: Toss-Up  -> Lean Liberal Democrats

13th February 2024

Changes in seat classification (Conservatives +5, Labour -1, Liberal Democrats -1, Toss-Up -3):

• Conservative
  • Stratford-on-Avon: Likely Conservative -> Lean Conservative
  • Weald of Kent: Likely Conservative -> Safe Conservative
  • Epping Forest: Lean Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • Hertsmere: Lean Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • Fareham and Waterlooville: Lean Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • Tamworth: Lean Conservative -> Likely Conservative
• Labour
  • Kingston upon Hull West and Haltemprice: Safe Labour -> Likely Labour
  • Northampton South: Likely Labour -> Lean Labour
  • Thurrock: Likely Labour -> Lean Labour
  • Croydon South: Likely Labour -> Lean Labour
  • Stafford: Likely Labour -> Lean Labour
  • Filton and Bradley Stoke: Likely Labour -> Safe Labour
  • Hamilton and Clyde Valley: Lean Labour -> Likely Labour
  • Na h-Eileanan an Iar: Lean Labour -> Likely Labour
  • Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner: Lean Labour -> Toss-Up
  • Aylesbury: Lean Labour -> Toss-Up
  • Central Devon: Lean Labour -> Toss-Up
  • Forest of Dean: Lean Labour -> Toss-Up
• Liberal Democrats
  • Hazel Grove: Lean Liberal Democrats -> Toss-Up
• SNP
  • Dundee Central: Likely SNP -> Lean SNP
• Independent
  • Exmouth and Exeter East: Lean Independent -> Likely Independent
• Toss-Up
  • Newton Abbot: Toss-Up  -> Lean Conservative
  • Thornbury and Yate: Toss-Up  -> Lean Conservative
  • Wells and Mendip Hills: Toss-Up  -> Lean Conservative
  • North Shropshire: Toss-Up  -> Lean Conservative
  • Aberdeenshire North and Moray East: Toss-Up  -> Lean Conservative
  • Dunfermline and Dollar: Toss-Up  -> Lean Labour
  • Glasgow West: Toss-Up  -> Lean Labour
  • West Dunbartonshire: Toss-Up  -> Lean Labour

8th February 2024

Changes in seat classification (Labour +1, Liberal Democrats -1):

• Conservatives
  • Rayleigh and Wickford: Likely Conservative -> Safe Conservative
  • Kingswinford and South Staffordshire: Likely Conservative -> Safe Conservative
  • Stratford-on-Avon: Lean Conservative -> Likely Conservative
• Labour
  • Filton and Bradley Stoke: Safe Labour -> Likely Labour
  • Colne Valley: Safe Labour -> Likely Labour
  • Northampton South: Lean Labour -> Likely Labour
• Liberal Democrats
  • North East Fife: Lean Liberal Democrats -> Toss-Up
• Independent
  • Exmouth and Exeter East: Likely Independent -> Lean Independent
• Toss-Up
  • Ynys Môn: Toss-Up  -> Lean Labour

6th February 2024

Changes in seat classification (Conservatives -2, Labour -5, Liberal Democrats -1, SNP +2, Toss-Ups +6):

• Conservatives
  • Weald of Kent: Safe Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • Hertsmere: Likely Conservative -> Lean Conservative
  • Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk: Likely Conservative -> Lean Conservative
  • Thornbury and Yate: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
  • North Warwickshire and Bedworth: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
  • Aberdeenshire North and Moray East: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
• Labour
  • Uxbridge and South Ruislip: Safe Labour -> Likely Labour
  • Northampton South: Likely Labour -> Lean Labour
  • Hamilton and Clyde Valley: Likely Labour -> Lean Labour
  • Motherwell, Wishaw and Carluke: Likely Labour -> Lean Labour
  • Na h-Eileanan an Iar: Likely Labour -> Lean Labour
  • Kingston upon Hull West and Haltemprice: Likely Labour -> Safe Labour
  • Llanelli: Likely Labour -> Safe Labour
  • Croydon South: Lean Labour -> Likely Labour
  • Stafford: Lean Labour -> Likely Labour
  • Dunfermline and Dollar: Lean Labour -> Toss-Up
  • Edinburgh North and Leith: Lean Labour -> Toss-Up
  • Glasgow West: Lean Labour -> Toss-Up
  • Glenrothes and Mid Fife: Lean Labour -> Toss-Up
  • West Dunbartonshire: Lean Labour -> Toss-Up
• Liberal Democrats
  • Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross: Lean Liberal Democrats -> Toss-Up
• SNP
  • Angus and Perthshire Glens: Lean SNP -> Likely SNP
  • Dundee Central: Lean SNP -> Likely SNP
  • Stirling and Strathallan: Lean SNP -> Likely SNP
• Toss-Up
  • Mid Bedfordshire: Toss-Up  -> Lean Conservative
  • Aberdeen South: Toss-Up  -> Lean SNP
  • Argyll, Bute and South Lochaber: Toss-Up  -> Lean SNP

1st February 2024

Changes in seat classification (Conservatives +6, Labour +2, Toss-Ups -8):

• Conservatives
  • North East Cambridgeshire: Likely Conservative -> Safe Conservative
  • Basildon and Billericay: Lean Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • Hertsmere: Lean Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • Mid Buckinghamshire: Lean Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • Goole and Pocklington: Lean Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • Thirsk and Malton: Lean Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • Maidenhead: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
  • Dumfries and Galloway: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
• Labour
  • East Thanet: Safe Labour -> Likely Labour
  • Kingston upon Hull West and Haltemprice: Safe Labour -> Likely Labour
  • Llanelli: Safe Labour -> Likely Labour
  • Hemel Hempstead: Likely Labour -> Lean Labour
  • Croydon South: Likely Labour -> Lean Labour
  • Stafford: Likely Labour -> Lean Labour
  • Motherwell, Wishaw and Carluke: Lean Labour -> Likely Labour
  • Sherwood Forest: Lean Labour -> Toss-Up
• Liberal Democrats
  • Edinburgh West: Likely Liberal Democrats -> Lean Liberal Democrats
• SNP
  • Stirling and Strathallan: Likely SNP -> Lean SNP
• Independent
  • Exmouth and Exeter East: Lean Independent -> Likely Independent
• Toss-Up
  • Melton and Syston: Toss-Up  -> Lean Conservative
  • North Norfolk: Toss-Up  -> Lean Conservative
  • Old Bexley and Sidcup: Toss-Up  -> Lean Conservative
  • Farnham and Bordon: Toss-Up  -> Lean Conservative
  • Herne Bay and Sandwich: Toss-Up  -> Lean Conservative
  • Melksham and Devizes: Toss-Up  -> Lean Conservative
  • Tewkesbury: Toss-Up  -> Lean Conservative
  • North Warwickshire and Bedworth: Toss-Up  -> Lean Conservative
  • Aylesbury: Toss-Up  -> Lean Labour
  • Edinburgh North and Leith: Toss-Up  -> Lean Labour
  • Glenrothes and Mid Fife: Toss-Up  -> Lean Labour

30th January 2024

Changes in seat classification (Conservatives -2, Labour -4, SNP -1, Toss-Ups +7):

• Conservatives
  • North East Cambridgeshire: Safe Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • Goole and Pocklington: Likely Conservative -> Lean Conservative
  • Thirsk and Malton: Likely Conservative -> Lean Conservative
  • North Norfolk: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
  • Old Bexley and Sidcup: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
  • Wells and Mendip Hills: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
  • West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
• Labour
  • Halesowen: Likely Labour -> Lean Labour
  • Uxbridge and South Ruislip: Likely Labour -> Safe Labour
  • Llanelli: Likely Labour -> Safe Labour
  • Dunstable and Leighton Buzzard: Lean Labour -> Toss-Up
  • Aylesbury: Lean Labour -> Toss-Up
  • Edinburgh East and Musselburgh: Lean Labour -> Toss-Up
  • Edinburgh North and Leith: Lean Labour -> Toss-Up
  • Glenrothes and Mid Fife: Lean Labour -> Toss-Up
• Liberal Democrats
  • Edinburgh West: Lean Liberal Democrats -> Likely Liberal Democrats
• SNP
  • Central Ayrshire: Lean SNP -> Toss-Up
• Independent
  • Exmouth and Exeter East: Likely Independent -> Lean Independent
• Toss-Up
  • Maidenhead: Toss-Up  -> Lean Conservative
  • Dumfries and Galloway: Toss-Up  -> Lean Conservative
  • Sherwood Forest: Toss-Up  -> Lean Labour

25th January 2024

Changes in seat classification (Conservatives -21, Labour +14, Liberal Democrats +1, SNP +1, Toss-Ups +5):

• Conservatives
  • Clacton: Safe Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • Rayleigh and Wickford: Safe Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • Kingswinford and South Staffordshire: Safe Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • Basildon and Billericay: Likely Conservative -> Lean Conservative
  • Epping Forest: Likely Conservative -> Lean Conservative
  • Hertsmere: Likely Conservative -> Lean Conservative
  • North West Norfolk: Likely Conservative -> Lean Conservative
  • South Suffolk: Likely Conservative -> Lean Conservative
  • Waveney Valley: Likely Conservative -> Lean Conservative
  • Arundel and South Downs: Likely Conservative -> Lean Conservative
  • Bognor Regis and Littlehampton: Likely Conservative -> Lean Conservative
  • East Hampshire: Likely Conservative -> Lean Conservative
  • Fareham and Waterlooville: Likely Conservative -> Lean Conservative
  • Mid Buckinghamshire: Likely Conservative -> Lean Conservative
  • Cannock Chase: Likely Conservative -> Lean Conservative
  • Lichfield: Likely Conservative -> Lean Conservative
  • Stratford-on-Avon: Likely Conservative -> Lean Conservative
  • Tamworth: Likely Conservative -> Lean Conservative
  • West Worcestershire: Likely Conservative -> Lean Conservative
  • Melton and Syston: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
  • Newark: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
  • Huntingdon: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
  • Mid Bedfordshire: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
  • Romford: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
  • Chesham and Amersham: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
  • Farnham and Bordon: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
  • Herne Bay and Sandwich: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
  • Maidenhead: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
  • Maidstone and Malling: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
  • Newbury: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
  • Romsey and Southampton North: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
  • Witney: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
  • Wokingham: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
  • Melksham and Devizes: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
  • South East Cornwall: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
  • Tewkesbury: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
  • Kenilworth and Southam: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
  • North Shropshire: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
  • North Warwickshire and Bedworth: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
  • Redditch: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
  • Skipton and Ripon: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
  • Dumfries and Galloway: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
• Labour
  • Barrow and Furness: Likely Labour -> Safe Labour
  • East Thanet: Likely Labour -> Safe Labour
  • East Worthing and Shoreham: Likely Labour -> Safe Labour
  • Filton and Bradley Stoke: Likely Labour -> Safe Labour
  • Shrewsbury: Likely Labour -> Safe Labour
  • Colne Valley: Likely Labour -> Safe Labour
  • Kingston upon Hull West and Haltemprice: Likely Labour -> Safe Labour
  • Spen Valley: Likely Labour -> Safe Labour
  • North East Derbyshire: Lean Labour -> Likely Labour
  • Northampton South: Lean Labour -> Likely Labour
  • Hemel Hempstead: Lean Labour -> Likely Labour
  • Thurrock: Lean Labour -> Likely Labour
  • Croydon South: Lean Labour -> Likely Labour
  • Morecambe and Lunesdale: Lean Labour -> Likely Labour
  • Penrith and Solway: Lean Labour -> Likely Labour
  • Buckingham and Bletchley: Lean Labour -> Likely Labour
  • Earley and Woodley: Lean Labour -> Likely Labour
  • Worthing West: Lean Labour -> Likely Labour
  • Halesowen: Lean Labour -> Likely Labour
  • Rugby: Lean Labour -> Likely Labour
  • Stafford: Lean Labour -> Likely Labour
  • Frome and East Somerset: Lean Labour -> Toss-Up
• Liberal Democrats
  • Edinburgh West: Likely Liberal Democrats -> Lean Liberal Democrats
• DUP
  • South Antrim: Safe DUP -> Likely DUP
• Independent
  • Exmouth and Exeter East: Lean Independent -> Likely Independent
• Toss-Up
  • Horsham: Toss-Up  -> Lean Conservative
  • Thornbury and Yate: Toss-Up  -> Lean Conservative
  • Harborough, Oadby and Wigston: Toss-Up  -> Lean Labour
  • Dunstable and Leighton Buzzard: Toss-Up  -> Lean Labour
  • Southend West and Leigh: Toss-Up  -> Lean Labour
  • Bromley and Biggin Hill: Toss-Up  -> Lean Labour
  • Finchley and Golders Green: Toss-Up  -> Lean Labour
  • Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner: Toss-Up  -> Lean Labour
  • Aylesbury: Toss-Up  -> Lean Labour
  • Bracknell: Toss-Up  -> Lean Labour
  • Folkestone and Hythe: Toss-Up  -> Lean Labour
  • Rochester and Strood: Toss-Up  -> Lean Labour
  • Central Devon: Toss-Up  -> Lean Labour
  • Forest of Dean: Toss-Up  -> Lean Labour
  • North Somerset: Toss-Up  -> Lean Labour
  • St Austell and Newquay: Toss-Up  -> Lean Labour
  • Burton and Uttoxeter: Toss-Up  -> Lean Labour
  • Hazel Grove: Toss-Up  -> Lean Liberal Democrats
  • Central Ayrshire: Toss-Up  -> Lean SNP

23rd January 2024

Changes in seat classification (Conservatives -9, Labour +7, Liberal Democrats +1, Toss-Ups +1):

• Conservatives
  • South Northamptonshire: Likely Conservative -> Lean Conservative
  • Bury St Edmunds and Stowmarket: Likely Conservative -> Lean Conservative
  • Mid Norfolk: Likely Conservative -> Lean Conservative
  • North Bedfordshire: Likely Conservative -> Lean Conservative
  • South Basildon and East Thurrock: Likely Conservative -> Lean Conservative
  • West Suffolk: Likely Conservative -> Lean Conservative
  • Hornchurch and Upminster: Likely Conservative -> Lean Conservative
  • Orpington: Likely Conservative -> Lean Conservative
  • Chatham and Aylesford: Likely Conservative -> Lean Conservative
  • Faversham and Mid Kent: Likely Conservative -> Lean Conservative
  • Bromsgrove: Likely Conservative -> Lean Conservative
  • Hereford and South Herefordshire: Likely Conservative -> Lean Conservative
  • Wyre Forest: Likely Conservative -> Lean Conservative
  • Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr: Likely Conservative -> Lean Conservative
  • Amber Valley: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
  • North West Leicestershire: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
  • Broadland and Fakenham: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
  • Chester South and Eddisbury: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
  • Fylde: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
  • Epsom and Ewell: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
  • Runnymede and Weybridge: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
  • Newton Abbot: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
  • Poole: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
  • Thornbury and Yate: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
  • Staffordshire Moorlands: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
• Labour
  • Bolsover: Likely Labour -> Safe Labour
  • Rushcliffe: Likely Labour -> Safe Labour
  • Norwich North: Likely Labour -> Safe Labour
  • Southport: Likely Labour -> Safe Labour
  • Milton Keynes North: Likely Labour -> Safe Labour
  • Tipton and Wednesbury: Likely Labour -> Safe Labour
  • Worcester: Likely Labour -> Safe Labour
  • Doncaster North: Likely Labour -> Safe Labour
  • Alyn and Deeside: Likely Labour -> Safe Labour
  • Hitchin: Lean Labour -> Likely Labour
  • Pendle and Clitheroe: Lean Labour -> Likely Labour
  • Basingstoke: Lean Labour -> Likely Labour
  • Dover and Deal: Lean Labour -> Likely Labour
  • Telford: Lean Labour -> Likely Labour
  • Doncaster East and the Isle of Axholme: Lean Labour -> Likely Labour
  • Finchley and Golders Green: Lean Labour -> Toss-Up
  • Ynys Môn: Lean Labour -> Toss-Up
• DUP
  • South Antrim: Likely DUP -> Safe DUP
• Toss-Up
  • Wells and Mendip Hills: Toss-Up  -> Lean Conservative
  • West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine: Toss-Up  -> Lean Conservative
  • Banbury: Toss-Up  -> Lean Labour
  • North East Somerset and Hanham: Toss-Up  -> Lean Labour
  • Weston-Super-Mare: Toss-Up  -> Lean Labour
  • Nuneaton: Toss-Up  -> Lean Labour
  • Selby: Toss-Up  -> Lean Labour
  • Edinburgh East and Musselburgh: Toss-Up  -> Lean Labour
  • Edinburgh North and Leith: Toss-Up  -> Lean Labour
  • Glenrothes and Mid Fife: Toss-Up  -> Lean Labour
  • Mid and South Pembrokeshire: Toss-Up  -> Lean Labour
  • Winchester: Toss-Up  -> Lean Liberal Democrats

18th January 2024

Changes in seat classification (Conservatives -1, Labour -2, Liberal Democrats -1, Toss-Ups +4):

• Conservatives
  • Louth and Horncastle: Safe Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • Bexhill and Battle: Likely Conservative -> Lean Conservative
  • North West Hampshire: Likely Conservative -> Lean Conservative
  • Meriden and Solihull East: Likely Conservative -> Lean Conservative
  • Solihull West and Shirley: Likely Conservative -> Lean Conservative
  • Beaconsfield: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
  • Wells and Mendip Hills: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
  • Sutton Coldfield: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
  • Beverley and Holderness: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
  • West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
• Labour
  • Tipton and Wednesbury: Safe Labour -> Likely Labour
  • Dover and Deal: Likely Labour -> Lean Labour
  • Altrincham and Sale West: Likely Labour -> Safe Labour
  • Aylesbury: Lean Labour -> Toss-Up
  • Edinburgh East and Musselburgh: Lean Labour -> Toss-Up
  • Edinburgh North and Leith: Lean Labour -> Toss-Up
  • Glenrothes and Mid Fife: Lean Labour -> Toss-Up
• Liberal Democrats
  • Winchester: Lean Liberal Democrats -> Toss-Up
• SNP
  • Stirling and Strathallan: Lean SNP -> Likely SNP
• Toss-Up
  • Epsom and Ewell: Toss-Up  -> Lean Conservative
  • Runnymede and Weybridge: Toss-Up  -> Lean Conservative
  • Thornbury and Yate: Toss-Up  -> Lean Conservative
  • Dumfries and Galloway: Toss-Up  -> Lean Conservative
  • Swindon North: Toss-Up  -> Lean Labour
  • Ynys Môn: Toss-Up  -> Lean Labour

16th January 2024

Changes in seat classification (Conservatives +7, Labour +12, Liberal Democrats +2, SNP -4, Toss-Ups -17):

• Conservatives
  • Louth and Horncastle: Likely Conservative -> Safe Conservative
  • Bexhill and Battle: Lean Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • Hereford and South Herefordshire: Lean Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • Meriden and Solihull East: Lean Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • Solihull West and Shirley: Lean Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk: Lean Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr: Lean Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • South West Wiltshire: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
• Labour
  • Altrincham and Sale West: Safe Labour -> Likely Labour
  • Alyn and Deeside: Safe Labour -> Likely Labour
  • Loughborough: Likely Labour -> Safe Labour
  • Darlington: Likely Labour -> Safe Labour
  • Redcar: Likely Labour -> Safe Labour
  • Crewe and Nantwich: Likely Labour -> Safe Labour
  • Swindon South: Likely Labour -> Safe Labour
  • Tipton and Wednesbury: Likely Labour -> Safe Labour
  • Shipley: Likely Labour -> Safe Labour
  • Ashfield: Lean Labour -> Likely Labour
  • Hexham: Lean Labour -> Likely Labour
  • Dover and Deal: Lean Labour -> Likely Labour
  • Great Grimsby and Cleethorpes: Lean Labour -> Likely Labour
  • Ossett and Denby Dale: Lean Labour -> Likely Labour
  • Glasgow East: Lean Labour -> Likely Labour
  • Hamilton and Clyde Valley: Lean Labour -> Likely Labour
  • Na h-Eileanan an Iar: Lean Labour -> Likely Labour
  • Mid and South Pembrokeshire: Lean Labour -> Toss-Up
• Liberal Democrats
  • South Cambridgeshire: Likely Liberal Democrats -> Lean Liberal Democrats
  • Edinburgh West: Lean Liberal Democrats -> Likely Liberal Democrats
• SNP
  • Angus and Perthshire Glens: Likely SNP -> Lean SNP
  • Dundee Central: Likely SNP -> Lean SNP
  • Edinburgh South West: Likely SNP -> Lean SNP
  • North Ayrshire and Arran: Likely SNP -> Lean SNP
  • Stirling and Strathallan: Likely SNP -> Lean SNP
  • Aberdeen South: Lean SNP -> Toss-Up
  • Argyll, Bute and South Lochaber: Lean SNP -> Toss-Up
  • Central Ayrshire: Lean SNP -> Toss-Up
  • East Renfrewshire: Lean SNP -> Toss-Up
• DUP
  • South Antrim: Safe DUP -> Likely DUP
• Toss-Up
  • North West Leicestershire: Toss-Up  -> Lean Conservative
  • Newbury: Toss-Up  -> Lean Conservative
  • Wokingham: Toss-Up  -> Lean Conservative
  • Beverley and Holderness: Toss-Up  -> Lean Conservative
  • Aberdeenshire North and Moray East: Toss-Up  -> Lean Conservative
  • Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale: Toss-Up  -> Lean Conservative
  • Gordon and Buchan: Toss-Up  -> Lean Conservative
  • West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine: Toss-Up  -> Lean Conservative
  • Southend East and Rochford: Toss-Up  -> Lean Labour
  • Frome and East Somerset: Toss-Up  -> Lean Labour
  • Plymouth Moor View: Toss-Up  -> Lean Labour
  • Halesowen: Toss-Up  -> Lean Labour
  • Dunfermline and Dollar: Toss-Up  -> Lean Labour
  • Edinburgh East and Musselburgh: Toss-Up  -> Lean Labour
  • Edinburgh North and Leith: Toss-Up  -> Lean Labour
  • Glasgow South: Toss-Up  -> Lean Labour
  • Glasgow West: Toss-Up  -> Lean Labour
  • Glenrothes and Mid Fife: Toss-Up  -> Lean Labour
  • Inverclyde and Renfrewshire West: Toss-Up  -> Lean Labour
  • Motherwell, Wishaw and Carluke: Toss-Up  -> Lean Labour
  • West Dunbartonshire: Toss-Up  -> Lean Labour
  • Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross: Toss-Up  -> Lean Liberal Democrats
  • North East Fife: Toss-Up  -> Lean Liberal Democrats

11th January 2024

Changes in seat classification (Conservatives -2, Labour -5, SNP -1, Toss-Ups +8):

• Conservatives
  • Great Yarmouth: Likely Conservative -> Lean Conservative
  • South West Devon: Likely Conservative -> Lean Conservative
  • Torridge and Tavistock: Likely Conservative -> Lean Conservative
  • Hereford and South Herefordshire: Likely Conservative -> Lean Conservative
  • Solihull West and Shirley: Likely Conservative -> Lean Conservative
  • Mid Leicestershire: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
  • North West Leicestershire: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
  • Wokingham: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
  • Glastonbury and Somerton: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
  • North Devon: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
• Labour
  • Darlington: Safe Labour -> Likely Labour
  • Llanelli: Safe Labour -> Likely Labour
  • Hexham: Likely Labour -> Lean Labour
  • Great Grimsby and Cleethorpes: Likely Labour -> Lean Labour
  • Ossett and Denby Dale: Likely Labour -> Lean Labour
  • Altrincham and Sale West: Likely Labour -> Safe Labour
  • Southend East and Rochford: Lean Labour -> Toss-Up
  • Plymouth Moor View: Lean Labour -> Toss-Up
  • Swindon North: Lean Labour -> Toss-Up
  • Halesowen: Lean Labour -> Toss-Up
  • Selby: Lean Labour -> Toss-Up
• Liberal Democrats
  • Hazel Grove: Lean Liberal Democrats -> Toss-Up
• SNP
  • Kilmarnock and Loudoun: Likely SNP -> Lean SNP
  • Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey: Lean SNP -> Toss-Up
• DUP
  • South Antrim: Likely DUP -> Safe DUP
• Toss-Up
  • Fylde: Toss-Up  -> Lean Conservative
  • South West Wiltshire: Toss-Up  -> Lean Conservative
  • Sutton Coldfield: Toss-Up  -> Lean Conservative
  • Taunton and Wellington: Toss-Up  -> Lean Liberal Democrats

9th January 2024

Changes in seat classification (Conservatives -3, Labour +4, Liberal Democrats -1):

• Conservatives
  • Louth and Horncastle: Safe Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • Meriden and Solihull East: Likely Conservative -> Lean Conservative
  • Torridge and Tavistock: Lean Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • Congleton: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
  • Fylde: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
  • Spelthorne: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
  • Chippenham: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
  • Sutton Coldfield: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
• Labour
  • Swindon South: Safe Labour -> Likely Labour
  • Llanelli: Likely Labour -> Safe Labour
  • Great Grimsby and Cleethorpes: Lean Labour -> Likely Labour
• Liberal Democrats
  • Westmorland and Lonsdale: Likely Liberal Democrats -> Lean Liberal Democrats
  • Wimbledon: Lean Liberal Democrats -> Toss-Up
• Toss-Up
  • Farnham and Bordon: Toss-Up  -> Lean Conservative
  • Wokingham: Toss-Up  -> Lean Conservative
  • Southend East and Rochford: Toss-Up  -> Lean Labour
  • Swindon North: Toss-Up  -> Lean Labour
  • Halesowen: Toss-Up  -> Lean Labour
  • Selby: Toss-Up  -> Lean Labour

4th January 2024

Changes in seat classification (Conservatives -5, Labour +6, SNP +2, Toss-Up -3):

• Conservatives
  • Brentwood and Ongar: Safe Conservative -> Likely Conservative
  • Broxbourne: Likely Conservative -> Lean Conservative
  • Old Bexley and Sidcup: Likely Conservative -> Lean Conservative
  • The Wrekin: Likely Conservative -> Lean Conservative
  • Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr: Likely Conservative -> Lean Conservative
  • Farnham and Bordon: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
  • Reigate: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
  • Bridgwater: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
  • South West Wiltshire: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
  • Beverley and Holderness: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
  • Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale: Lean Conservative -> Toss-Up
• Labour
  • Shipley: Safe Labour -> Likely Labour
  • Swindon South: Likely Labour -> Safe Labour
  • Colchester: Lean Labour -> Likely Labour
  • Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland: Lean Labour -> Likely Labour
  • Stockton West: Lean Labour -> Likely Labour
  • Ossett and Denby Dale: Lean Labour -> Likely Labour
• SNP
  • Kilmarnock and Loudoun: Lean SNP -> Likely SNP
  • North Ayrshire and Arran: Lean SNP -> Likely SNP
• Toss-Up
  • Newton Abbot: Toss-Up  -> Lean Conservative
  • Bassetlaw: Toss-Up  -> Lean Labour
  • Hemel Hempstead: Toss-Up  -> Lean Labour
  • Croydon South: Toss-Up  -> Lean Labour
  • Aylesbury: Toss-Up  -> Lean Labour
  • Plymouth Moor View: Toss-Up  -> Lean Labour
  • Mid and South Pembrokeshire: Toss-Up  -> Lean Labour
  • East Renfrewshire: Toss-Up  -> Lean SNP
  • Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey: Toss-Up  -> Lean SNP

2nd January 2024

Launch of UK Election Data Vault forecasting model. The initial ratings for all seats were (Labour 332, Conservatives 142, Liberal Democrats 22, SNP 14, DUP 8, Sinn Féin 6, SDLP 2, Plaid Cymru 1, Green 1, Alliance 1, Speaker 1, Indepedent 1):

• Safe Conservative
  • Boston and Skegness
  • Brentwood and Ongar
  • Castle Point
  • Clacton
  • Kingswinford and South Staffordshire
  • Louth and Horncastle
  • Maldon
  • North East Cambridgeshire
  • Rayleigh and Wickford
  • South Holland and the Deepings
  • Weald of Kent
• Likely Conservative
  • Aldridge-Brownhills
  • Arundel and South Downs
  • Basildon and Billericay
  • Bognor Regis and Littlehampton
  • Braintree
  • Bridlington and the Wolds
  • Brigg and Immingham
  • Bromsgrove
  • Broxbourne
  • Bury St Edmunds and Stowmarket
  • Cannock Chase
  • Chatham and Aylesford
  • Christchurch
  • Daventry
  • Droitwich and Evesham
  • East Hampshire
  • East Surrey
  • East Wiltshire
  • Epping Forest
  • Fareham and Waterlooville
  • Faversham and Mid Kent
  • Gainsborough
  • Goole and Pocklington
  • Gosport
  • Grantham and Bourne
  • Great Yarmouth
  • Hamble Valley
  • Havant
  • Hereford and South Herefordshire
  • Hertsmere
  • Hinckley and Bosworth
  • Honiton and Sidmouth
  • Hornchurch and Upminster
  • Lichfield
  • Meriden and Solihull East
  • Mid Buckinghamshire
  • Mid Norfolk
  • Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr
  • New Forest East
  • New Forest West
  • North Bedfordshire
  • North Dorset
  • North East Hampshire
  • North Herefordshire
  • North West Essex
  • North West Hampshire
  • North West Norfolk
  • Old Bexley and Sidcup
  • Orpington
  • Richmond and Northallerton
  • Rutland and Stamford
  • Sevenoaks
  • Sittingbourne and Sheppey
  • Sleaford and North Hykeham
  • Solihull West and Shirley
  • South Basildon and East Thurrock
  • South Leicestershire
  • South Northamptonshire
  • South Shropshire
  • South Suffolk
  • South West Devon
  • South West Norfolk
  • Stone, Great Wyrley and Penkridge
  • Stratford-on-Avon
  • Sussex Weald
  • Tamworth
  • The Wrekin
  • Thirsk and Malton
  • Tiverton and Minehead
  • Tonbridge
  • Waveney Valley
  • West Suffolk
  • West Worcestershire
  • Wetherby and Easingwold
  • Witham
  • Wyre Forest
• Lean Conservative
  • Amber Valley
  • Beaconsfield
  • Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk
  • Beverley and Holderness
  • Bexhill and Battle
  • Bridgwater
  • Broadland and Fakenham
  • Central Suffolk and North Ipswich
  • Chesham and Amersham
  • Chester South and Eddisbury
  • Chichester
  • Chippenham
  • Congleton
  • Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale
  • East Grinstead and Uckfield
  • Farnham and Bordon
  • Fylde
  • Glastonbury and Somerton
  • Herne Bay and Sandwich
  • Huntingdon
  • Kenilworth and Southam
  • Maidenhead
  • Maidstone and Malling
  • Melksham and Devizes
  • Melton and Syston
  • Mid Bedfordshire
  • Mid Dorset and North Poole
  • Mid Leicestershire
  • Newark
  • North Cornwall
  • North Cotswolds
  • North Devon
  • North Norfolk
  • North Shropshire
  • North Warwickshire and Bedworth
  • North West Leicestershire
  • Poole
  • Redditch
  • Reigate
  • Romford
  • Romsey and Southampton North
  • Skipton and Ripon
  • South Cotswolds
  • South East Cornwall
  • South West Wiltshire
  • Spelthorne
  • Staffordshire Moorlands
  • Surrey Heath
  • Sutton Coldfield
  • Tewkesbury
  • Torbay
  • Torridge and Tavistock
  • Wells and Mendip Hills
  • Witney
  • Yeovil
• Safe Labour
  • Aberafan Maesteg
  • Alyn and Deeside
  • Ashton-under-Lyne
  • Barking
  • Battersea
  • Beckenham and Penge
  • Bedford
  • Bermondsey and Old Southwark
  • Bethnal Green and Stepney
  • Birkenhead
  • Birmingham Edgbaston
  • Birmingham Erdington
  • Birmingham Hall Green and Moseley
  • Birmingham Hodge Hill and Solihull North
  • Birmingham Ladywood
  • Birmingham Northfield
  • Birmingham Perry Barr
  • Birmingham Selly Oak
  • Birmingham Yardley
  • Blackburn
  • Blackley and Middleton South
  • Blackpool South
  • Blaenau Gwent and Rhymney
  • Blaydon and Consett
  • Blyth and Ashington
  • Bolton North East
  • Bolton South and Walkden
  • Bootle
  • Bradford East
  • Bradford South
  • Bradford West
  • Brent East
  • Brent West
  • Brentford and Isleworth
  • Brighton Kemptown and Peacehaven
  • Bristol Central
  • Bristol East
  • Bristol North East
  • Bristol North West
  • Bristol South
  • Broxtowe
  • Burnley
  • Bury North
  • Bury South
  • Caerphilly
  • Calder Valley
  • Cambridge
  • Canterbury
  • Cardiff East
  • Cardiff North
  • Cardiff South and Penarth
  • Cardiff West
  • Chester North and Neston
  • Chesterfield
  • Chingford and Woodford Green
  • Chipping Barnet
  • Clapham and Brixton Hill
  • Coventry East
  • Coventry North West
  • Coventry South
  • Cramlington and Killingworth
  • Croydon East
  • Croydon West
  • Dagenham and Rainham
  • Darlington
  • Derby North
  • Derby South
  • Dewsbury and Batley
  • Doncaster Central
  • Dulwich and West Norwood
  • Durham, City Of
  • Ealing Central and Acton
  • Ealing North
  • Ealing Southall
  • Easington
  • East Ham
  • Edinburgh South
  • Edmonton and Winchmore Hill
  • Ellesmere Port and Bromborough
  • Eltham and Chislehurst
  • Enfield North
  • Erith and Thamesmead
  • Exeter
  • Feltham and Heston
  • Gateshead Central and Whickham
  • Gedling
  • Gorton and Denton
  • Gower
  • Greenwich and Woolwich
  • Hackney North and Stoke Newington
  • Hackney South and Shoreditch
  • Halifax
  • Hammersmith and Chiswick
  • Hampstead and Highgate
  • Harrow West
  • Hastings and Rye
  • Hayes and Harlington
  • Hendon
  • Heywood and Middleton North
  • High Peak
  • Holborn and St Pancras
  • Hornsey and Friern Barnet
  • Houghton and Sunderland South
  • Hove and Portslade
  • Huddersfield
  • Hyndburn
  • Ilford North
  • Ilford South
  • Ipswich
  • Islington North
  • Islington South and Finsbury
  • Jarrow and Gateshead East
  • Keighley and Ilkley
  • Kensington and Bayswater
  • Kingston upon Hull East
  • Kingston upon Hull North and Cottingham
  • Knowsley
  • Lancaster and Wyre
  • Leeds Central and Headingley
  • Leeds East
  • Leeds North East
  • Leeds North West
  • Leeds South
  • Leeds West and Pudsey
  • Leicester East
  • Leicester South
  • Leicester West
  • Leigh and Atherton
  • Lewisham East
  • Lewisham North
  • Lewisham West and East Dulwich
  • Leyton and Wanstead
  • Lincoln
  • Liverpool Garston
  • Liverpool Riverside
  • Liverpool Walton
  • Liverpool Wavertree
  • Liverpool West Derby
  • Luton North
  • Luton South and South Bedfordshire
  • Makerfield
  • Manchester Central
  • Manchester Rusholme
  • Manchester Withington
  • Merthyr Tydfil and Aberdare
  • Mid Cheshire
  • Middlesbrough and Thornaby East
  • Milton Keynes Central
  • Mitcham and Morden
  • Neath and Swansea East
  • Newcastle upon Tyne Central and West
  • Newcastle upon Tyne East and Wallsend
  • Newcastle upon Tyne North
  • Newport East
  • Newport West and Islwyn
  • Newton Aycliffe and Spennymoor
  • Normanton and Hemsworth
  • North Durham
  • Northampton North
  • Norwich South
  • Nottingham East
  • Nottingham North and Kimberley
  • Nottingham South
  • Oldham East and Saddleworth
  • Oldham West, Chadderton and Royton
  • Oxford East
  • Peckham
  • Peterborough
  • Plymouth Sutton and Devonport
  • Pontefract, Castleford and Knottingley
  • Pontypridd
  • Poplar and Limehouse
  • Portsmouth South
  • Preston
  • Putney
  • Queen’s Park and Maida Vale
  • Rawmarsh and Conisbrough
  • Reading Central
  • Rhondda and Ogmore
  • Rochdale
  • Rotherham
  • Runcorn and Helsby
  • Salford
  • Sefton Central
  • Sheffield Brightside and Hillsborough
  • Sheffield Central
  • Sheffield Heeley
  • Sheffield South East
  • Shipley
  • Slough
  • Smethwick
  • South Shields
  • Southampton Itchen
  • Southampton Test
  • Southgate and Wood Green
  • St Helens North
  • St Helens South and Whiston
  • Stalybridge and Hyde
  • Stockport
  • Stockton North
  • Stoke-on-Trent Central
  • Stratford and Bow
  • Streatham and Croydon North
  • Stretford and Urmston
  • Stroud
  • Sunderland Central
  • Swansea West
  • Tooting
  • Torfaen
  • Tottenham
  • Truro and Falmouth
  • Tynemouth
  • Vauxhall and Camberwell Green
  • Wakefield and Rothwell
  • Wallasey
  • Walsall and Bloxwich
  • Walthamstow
  • Warrington North
  • Warrington South
  • Warwick and Leamington
  • Washington and Gateshead South
  • Watford
  • West Bromwich
  • West Ham and Beckton
  • West Lancashire
  • Whitehaven and Workington
  • Widnes and Halewood
  • Wigan
  • Wirral West
  • Wolverhampton South East
  • Wolverhampton West
  • Worsley and Eccles
  • Wycombe
  • Wythenshawe and Sale East
  • York Central
• Likely Labour
  • Airdrie and Shotts
  • Altrincham and Sale West
  • Bangor Aberconwy
  • Barnsley North
  • Barnsley South
  • Barrow and Furness
  • Bishop Auckland
  • Blackpool North and Fleetwood
  • Bolsover
  • Bolton West
  • Bournemouth East
  • Bournemouth West
  • Bridgend
  • Camborne and Redruth
  • Carlisle
  • Chelsea and Fulham
  • Cities of London and Westminster
  • Clwyd East
  • Clwyd North
  • Coatbridge and Bellshill
  • Colne Valley
  • Corby and East Northamptonshire
  • Cowdenbeath and Kirkcaldy
  • Crawley
  • Crewe and Nantwich
  • Doncaster North
  • East Thanet
  • East Worthing and Shoreham
  • Erewash
  • Filton and Bradley Stoke
  • Glasgow North
  • Glasgow North East
  • Glasgow South West
  • Gloucester
  • Harrow East
  • Hartlepool
  • Hexham
  • Kingston upon Hull West and Haltemprice
  • Leeds South West and Morley
  • Llanelli
  • Lothian East
  • Loughborough
  • Macclesfield
  • Midlothian
  • Milton Keynes North
  • Newcastle-under-Lyme
  • Norwich North
  • Penistone and Stocksbridge
  • Redcar
  • Rossendale and Darwen
  • Rother Valley
  • Rushcliffe
  • Rutherglen
  • Scarborough and Whitby
  • Scunthorpe
  • Sheffield Hallam
  • Shrewsbury
  • South Ribble
  • Southport
  • Spen Valley
  • Stevenage
  • Stoke-on-Trent North
  • Swindon South
  • Tipton and Wednesbury
  • Uxbridge and South Ruislip
  • Vale of Glamorgan
  • Welwyn Hatfield
  • Wolverhampton North East
  • Worcester
  • Wrexham
  • York Outer
• Lean Labour
  • Ashfield
  • Basingstoke
  • Buckingham and Bletchley
  • Colchester
  • Doncaster East and the Isle of Axholme
  • Dover and Deal
  • Earley and Woodley
  • Finchley and Golders Green
  • Glasgow East
  • Great Grimsby and Cleethorpes
  • Hamilton and Clyde Valley
  • Hitchin
  • Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland
  • Morecambe and Lunesdale
  • Na h-Eileanan an Iar
  • North East Derbyshire
  • Northampton South
  • Ossett and Denby Dale
  • Pendle and Clitheroe
  • Penrith and Solway
  • Rugby
  • Stafford
  • Stockton West
  • Telford
  • Thurrock
  • Worthing West
• Safe Liberal Democrats
  • Bath
  • Kingston and Surbiton
  • Oxford West and Abingdon
  • Richmond Park
  • St Albans
  • Twickenham
• Likely Liberal Democrats
  • Carshalton and Wallington
  • Cheadle
  • Cheltenham
  • Eastbourne
  • Esher and Walton
  • Guildford
  • Lewes
  • Orkney and Shetland
  • South Cambridgeshire
  • Westmorland and Lonsdale
• Lean Liberal Democrats
  • Edinburgh West
  • Harrogate and Knaresborough
  • Hazel Grove
  • St Ives
  • Wimbledon
  • Winchester
• Likely SNP
  • Aberdeen North
  • Alloa and Grangemouth
  • Angus and Perthshire Glens
  • Arbroath and Broughty Ferry
  • Dundee Central
  • Edinburgh South West
  • Falkirk
  • Inverness, Skye and West Ross-shire
  • Stirling and Strathallan
• Lean SNP
  • Aberdeen South
  • Argyll, Bute and South Lochaber
  • Central Ayrshire
  • Kilmarnock and Loudoun
  • North Ayrshire and Arran
• Safe DUP
  • East Antrim
  • East Londonderry
  • Lagan Valley
  • North Antrim
  • Strangford
  • Upper Bann
• Likely DUP
  • Belfast East
  • South Antrim
• Safe Sinn Féin
  • Belfast North
  • Belfast West
  • Mid Ulster
  • Newry and Armagh
  • West Tyrone
• Likely Sinn Féin
  • South Down
• Safe SDLP
  • Belfast South and Mid Down
  • Foyle
• Likely Plaid Cymru
  • Dwyfor Meirionnydd
• Safe Green Party
  • Brighton Pavilion
• Likely Alliance
  • North Down
• Safe Speaker
  • Chorley
• Lean Independent
  • Exmouth and Exeter East
• Toss-Up
  • Aberdeenshire North and Moray East
  • Aldershot
  • Ashford
  • Aylesbury
  • Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock
  • Banbury
  • Bassetlaw
  • Bathgate and Linlithgow
  • Bexleyheath and Crayford
  • Bicester and Woodstock
  • Bracknell
  • Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe
  • Bromley and Biggin Hill
  • Burton and Uttoxeter
  • Caerfyrddin
  • Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross
  • Central Devon
  • Ceredigion Preseli
  • Chelmsford
  • Croydon South
  • Cumbernauld and Kirkintilloch
  • Dartford
  • Derbyshire Dales
  • Didcot and Wantage
  • Dorking and Horley
  • Dudley
  • Dumfries and Galloway
  • Dunfermline and Dollar
  • Dunstable and Leighton Buzzard
  • East Kilbride and Strathaven
  • East Renfrewshire
  • Eastleigh
  • Edinburgh East and Musselburgh
  • Edinburgh North and Leith
  • Ely and East Cambridgeshire
  • Epsom and Ewell
  • Fermanagh and South Tyrone
  • Folkestone and Hythe
  • Forest of Dean
  • Frome and East Somerset
  • Gillingham and Rainham
  • Glasgow South
  • Glasgow West
  • Glenrothes and Mid Fife
  • Godalming and Ash
  • Gordon and Buchan
  • Gravesham
  • Halesowen
  • Harborough, Oadby and Wigston
  • Harlow
  • Harpenden and Berkhamsted
  • Harwich and North Essex
  • Hemel Hempstead
  • Henley and Thame
  • Hertford and Stortford
  • Horsham
  • Inverclyde and Renfrewshire West
  • Isle of Wight East
  • Isle of Wight West
  • Kettering
  • Livingston
  • Lowestoft
  • Mansfield
  • Mid and South Pembrokeshire
  • Mid Derbyshire
  • Mid Dunbartonshire
  • Mid Sussex
  • Monmouthshire
  • Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey
  • Motherwell, Wishaw and Carluke
  • Newbury
  • Newton Abbot
  • North East Fife
  • North East Hertfordshire
  • North East Somerset and Hanham
  • North Northumberland
  • North Somerset
  • North West Cambridgeshire
  • Nuneaton
  • Paisley and Renfrewshire North
  • Paisley and Renfrewshire South
  • Perth and Kinross-shire
  • Plymouth Moor View
  • Portsmouth North
  • Reading West and Mid Berkshire
  • Ribble Valley
  • Rochester and Strood
  • Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner
  • Runnymede and Weybridge
  • Salisbury
  • Selby
  • Sherwood Forest
  • South Derbyshire
  • South Devon
  • South Dorset
  • South Norfolk
  • South West Hertfordshire
  • Southend East and Rochford
  • Southend West and Leigh
  • St Austell and Newquay
  • St Neots and Mid Cambridgeshire
  • Stoke-on-Trent South
  • Stourbridge
  • Suffolk Coastal
  • Sutton and Cheam
  • Swindon North
  • Tatton
  • Taunton and Wellington
  • Thornbury and Yate
  • Tunbridge Wells
  • Wellingborough and Rushden
  • West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine
  • West Dorset
  • West Dunbartonshire
  • Weston-Super-Mare
  • Windsor
  • Woking
  • Wokingham
  • Ynys Môn