UK Election Data Vault

Forecast Predictions

Our forecast uses the polls and notional results for the 2019 general election to predict the outcome in each of the 650 constituencies at the next election. It is exactly the same as the nowcast, but before simulating the election it tries to estimate how the polls will change between now and the election. It is built on the assumption that polls are impossible to predict and that each party’s vote share may go up or down before the election

The forecast is our prefered model for predicting the outcome of the election as it takes account of potential changes in the polls.

Battlegrounds

The battlegrounds in an election are defined by the extent of the swing between the parties. To begin with we can identify where the competitive seats are (those classified likely, lean or toss-up). We can also identify seats that are already considered safe for a different party (Safe Gains). This indicates a big swing against the incumbent party.

It is also important to consider the starting position from the previous elections. To that end, we have defined four battlegrounds that we think will decide who will govern after the next election. We have identified 175 seats in Southern England, the Midlands, Northern England and Scotland. They are mostly held by the Conservatives and SNP and many will need to won by Labour if they are to win the election.

Southern England

The Southern England Battleground is defined as all seats in London, the South East, South West and the East of England where the Tories had a majority of less than 10 000 or another partyhad a majority of less than 4 000. It includes 54 seats – 5 held by Labour and 49 by the Conservatives. This is our version of what is often called the Blue Wall. It includes seats in the suburbs of many southern cities such as London, Bristol and Southampton along with many covering towns in London’s commuter belt such as Bedford, Crawley, Stevenage and Watford. Labour are the main challenger in most of these seats but there are a clutch of seats around London and along the south coast where the Liberal Democrats have a chance of gains The graph below shows the forecast’s current prediction for the outcome in the Southern England Battleground:

The Midlands

The Midlands Battleground is defined as all seats in the Midlands where the Tories had a majority of less than 10 000 or another party had a majority of less than 4 000. It is composed of 30 seats – 6 held by Labour and 24 by the Conservatives. It includes many urban and suburban seats that went Tory in 2019 particularly around the cities of Birmingham, Nottingham and Stoke. It is a straight Conservative vs Labour battle. Reform (and its predecessors) have picked up substantial shares of the vote in the recent past but are unlikely to challenge the red-blue duopoly this time. The graph below shows the forecast’s current prediction for the outcome in the Midlands Battleground:

Northern England

The Northern England Battleground is defined as all seats in North East England; North West England, Yorkshire and the Humber where the Tories had a majority of less than 10 000 or another party had a majority of less than 4 000. It includes 60 seats – 24 held by Labour and 36 by the Conservatives. This is our version of what is often called the Red Wall. It is mostly composed of suburban seats in three clusters – in South and West Yorkshire, Greater Manchester and on Tyneside. There are also a few seats covering towns in Cumbria, Lancashire and Cheshire. It is mostly a Conservative /Labour battleground but there are areas with a Liberal tradition (mostly in Cumbria). The graph below shows the forecast’s current prediction for the outcome in the Northern England Battleground:

Scotland

The Scotland Battleground is defined as anywhere where the incumbent had a majority of less than 8 000. It includes 31 out of 57 Scottish seats – 6 held by the Conservatives, 2 by the Liberal Democrats and 23 by the SNP. It includes wide swathes of Scotland with some very different seats. Most of the Highlands and islands are in the battleground along with seats in rural parts of Aberdeenshire, Perthshire, Dumfries and Galloway. However, there are also four seats in Glasgow along with similarly urban parts of Lanarkshire and Renfrewshire. This all reflects the wide playing field on which Scottish politics has been fought in the last decade or so. The SNP, Labour, the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats all have hopes of winning seats depending on the dynamics of the election. Scotland is the most fluid and elastic of the battlegrounds – small changes in the vote share for each party could have profound consequences in terms of seats. The graph below shows the forecast’s current prediction for the outcome in the Scotland Battleground:

Change in the Forecast

The forecast changes over time due to two key factors. Firstly, new polling is published and included in the model every few days. Secondly, the election gets closer, hence the time the polls have to change gets shorter. The graph below shows the forecast of the outcomes since the start of 2024:

Constituency Forecast Predictions

Abbreviations used in the table: CON = Conservative, LAB = Labour Party, LIB = Liberal Democrats, GRE = Green Party, UKI = UK Independence Party (UKIP), SNP = Scottish National Party (SNP), PLC = Plaid Cymru – The Party of Wales, REF = Reform UK, SDP = Social Democratic Party, ALL = Alliance – Alliance Party of Northern Ireland, SFA = Sinn Féin, DUP = Democratic Unionist Party – D.U.P., SDL = SDLP (Social Democratic & Labour Party)