Our pollster ratings are meant as a guide to recent performance of pollsters in UK general election polls. They are based on three components: accuracy, longevity and membership of the British Polling Council.
Seventy percent of a pollster’s score comes from their accuracy in predicting the most recent three UK general elections. The measure used is based on the differences between the national share of the vote (for the three largest parties) and the final poll fielded before polling day. A perfect prediction of each of the last three elections would contribute seventy points to a pollster’s score.
Ten percent of a pollster’s score comes from their longevity in polling UK general elections. A pollster is awarded ten points if they published a poll conducted during each of the last three parliaments (i.e. between 2015-17, 2017-19 and 2019-24) New pollsters have a longevity score of zero.
Twenty percent of a pollster’s score comes from membership of the British Polling Council. Members receive twenty points and non members zero.
Pollster ratings are used in the calculation of our polling average. They have been back calculated so contemporary ratings are used to weight the poling average. For example, the pollster rating used to weight polls for the 2010 general election are based on accuracy in predicting the 1997, 2001 and 2005 general elections.
We updated our pollster ratings on 4th February 2025 to reflect an error in our classification of Verian. We formerly treated them as a new pollster but now they are treated as a continuation of Kantar. This means they inherit Kantar’s rating from previous elections and they move to be our best rated pollster given they were the top pollster in 2024.
We made a further change to our pollster ratings on 4th December 2025 to reflect the change of ownership of Panelbase. Up until this point Panelbase and Norstat were treated as separate firms. Norstat is now treated as a continuation of Panelbase and they have inherited the accuracy scores.
How did the pollsters do in 2024?
Total Vote Share
Polling Accuracy
Our pollster accuracy scores are based on the difference between each pollster’s final poll and the final results. The score is the sum of the squares of the differences – smaller scores are better.
Final Polls
Pollster ratings are based on historic accuracy, longevity and membership of the British Polling Council. The accuracy scores are based on the previous three general elections.