# UK Election Data Vault


## Pages

- [Constituency Results](https://electiondatavault.co.uk/election-results-2024/constituencyresults2024/): Results by Constituency
- [Pollster Ratings](https://electiondatavault.co.uk/election-results-2024/pollsterratings2024/): How did the pollsters do? Total Vote Share Polling Accuracy Our pollster accuracy scores are based on the difference between each pollster’s final poll and the final results. The score is the sum of the squares of the differences – smaller scores are better. Final Polls Pollster ratings are based on historic accuracy, longevity and membership of the British Polling Council. The accuracy scores are based on the previous three general elections.
- [Results Map](https://electiondatavault.co.uk/election-results-2024/resultsmap2024/): Results Map
- [Election Results 2024](https://electiondatavault.co.uk/election-results-2024/): Election Results 2024 We have compiled all the results from the 2024 election and rated the pollsters and their models; Seats won Votes won Vote share
- [Model Ratings](https://electiondatavault.co.uk/election-results-2024/modelratings2024/): How did the models do? We rated the predictions made by various models (including our own) on their accuracy in predicting the results for each constituency. A perfect score is 1000, models lose points for making inaccurate predictions. Final Model Predictions
- [Model Comparisons](https://electiondatavault.co.uk/charts/model-comparisons/): Comparing Outputs from Seat Models Seven different pollsters have published seat estimates based on MRP (Multi-level regression and post stratification) during this election campaign. We wanted to see how the results compare with each other and with the outputs of our model. MRP combines a large sample of voters with demographic data to forecast each seat. In recent elections it has had some success in forecasting the number of seats each party will win. Our model does not use MRP but instead relies on aggregated polling and past voting intention to forecast the outcome. More in Common have published two […]
- [Polling Average 2019-24](https://electiondatavault.co.uk/charts/polling-average/polling-average-2019-24/): Polling Average for UK General Election Voting Intention Our polling average blends together all publicly available polls and weights them based on the reliability of the pollster (see our pollster ratings). They are smoothed using a 14 day moving average. Polls commissioned by political groups are weighted down and those commissioned by political parties are excluded. Our polling database goes back to 1943, although the frequency of polls has grown greatly over time.
- [Conservative Forecast](https://electiondatavault.co.uk/charts/candidates/conservative-forecast/): Forecast for Conservative Held Seats The polls in advance of the general election looked very poor for the Conservatives. Below you can see which MPs we thought were in most danger. Our forecast model used the latest polling, notional results from 2019 and our comprehensive candidate tracking. You can find our full forecast here and forecast map here. Forecast for seats being contested by government ministers Forecast for seats being contestesed by sitting Conservative MPs
- [Candidate Map](https://electiondatavault.co.uk/charts/candidates/candidate-map/): Candidate Map Our database includes all the selected candidates for the 2024 general election. The map below shows how many candidates were selected in each constituency. You can see a list of the candidates by clicking on a constituency.
- [Candidates](https://electiondatavault.co.uk/charts/candidates/): Candidates for the 2024 UK General Election Candidate selection for the upcoming election is complete. Nominations closed at 4pm on 7 June. Our database now includes all the selected candidates. You can find a table at the bottom of the page with all the candidates. How many candidates have each party selected? What happend to MPs elected in 2019? How does this rate of attrition compare to past elections? All candidates
- [Polling Average 1987-97](https://electiondatavault.co.uk/charts/polling-average/polling-average-1987-97/): Polling Average for UK General Election Voting Intention Our polling average blends together all publicly available polls and weights them based on the reliability of the pollster (see our pollster ratings). They are smoothed using a 14 day moving average. Polls commissioned by political groups are weighted down and those commissioned by political parties are excluded. Our polling database goes back to 1943, although the frequency of polls has grown greatly over time.
- [Toss-Ups](https://electiondatavault.co.uk/handicapping/toss-ups/): Seats rated as Toss-Ups Our forecast model classifies seats in to four categories: The seats currently rated as a toss-up show where the battle lines are currently drawn. The tables below show which parties are competing to win each of the seats we currently forecast as a toss-up. Some seats are two way fights whilst others feature three parties. East Midlands East of England London North East England North West England South East England South West England West Midlands Yorkshire and the Humber Northern Ireland Scotland Wales
- [Pollsters](https://electiondatavault.co.uk/charts/pollsters/): Voting Intention for the next UK General Election by Pollster Pollster ratings included in parenthesis Opinium (A-) YouGov (A-) Redfield & Wilton (D) Ipsos-MORI (A-) Savanta ComRes (B-) Techne (D+) Survation (A-) Deltapoll (B) Omnisis (D+) Pollsters Ratings Our pollster ratings are meant as a guide to recent performance of pollsters in UK general election polls. They are based on three components: accuracy, longevity and membership of the British Polling Council. Seventy percent of a pollster’s score comes from their accuracy in predicting the most recent three UK general elections. The measure used depends on the differences between the national […]
- [Latest Forecast Updates](https://electiondatavault.co.uk/handicapping/latest-forecast-updates/): Latest Forecast Updates The results from our election forecasting model are updated twice a week on a Tuesday and a Thursday based on the latest avalible polling. Below is a summary of the changes in the seat ratings for each run of the model since its launch at the start of 2024. 2nd July 2024 Changes in seat classification (Conservative -+2 Labour -1, Liberal Democrats -1, Plaid Cymru +1, SNP +1, Toss-Ups -2): 30th June 2024 (Special Sunday Update) Changes in seat classification (Conservative -1, Labour -1, Liberal Democrats +1, Toss-Ups -1): 27th June 2024 Changes in seat classification (Conservative […]
- [Nowcast Map](https://electiondatavault.co.uk/handicapping/nowcast-map/): Nowcast Map Our nowcast takes the latest polls and simulates the election as if it were tomorrow. It takes account of potential errors in the polls and variation in swing across the country. It makes no attempt to estimate candidate effects (such as incumbency or scandal). The nowcast tries to answer the question: “If the polls do not change before the election, what would be the result?” We classify seats in to four categories:
- [Forecast Map](https://electiondatavault.co.uk/handicapping/forecast-map/): Forecast Map Our forecast uses the polls and notional results for the 2019 general election to predict the outcome in each of the 650 constituencies at the next election. It is exactly the same as the nowcast, but before simulating the election it tries to estimate how the polls will change between now and the election. It is built on the assumption that polls are impossible to predict and that each party’s vote share may go up or down before the election The forecast is our prefered model for predicting the outcome of the election as it takes account of […]
- [Partisan Lean](https://electiondatavault.co.uk/charts/partisan-lean/): Partisan Lean Our partisan lean metric shows you how different the voting patterns in a county, region or nation are compared to the UK as a whole. It is simply the difference between a party’s vote at UK level less there vote share in a county, region or nation. For example, in Derbyshire in 2019 the Conservatives 52% of the vote compared to 44% nationwide giving Derbyshire a Conservative lean of 8%. We have plotted the partisan lean for Labour and the Conservatives for the five most recent elections below. The way to read these charts is as follow: Two […]
- [Northern Ireland](https://electiondatavault.co.uk/charts/regional-analysis/northern-ireland/): Northern Ireland Electoral politics in Northern Ireland is shaped by the sectarian divide between Unionists (those who favour remaining in the United Kingdom) and Nationalists (those who favour joining a united Ireland). Throughout the period of the Troubles (1968-98) the standard bearer for the Unionist side were the UUP. On the Nationalist side the most popular party was the Social Democratic Labour Party (SDLP). However, during and following the peace process in the 1990’s both were replaced as the leading party in their community. Unionists moved to the DUP and Nationalists to Sinn Féin. The cross community Alliance party has […]
- [Run In](https://electiondatavault.co.uk/charts/polling-average/run-in/): Run In Polling With just one week to go in the general election campaign, we have updated our run-in analysis to show the current state of play for Conservative government compared to its predecessors. We picked two metrics for this analysis: We have then plotted these two metrics twice for every election from 1955 to 2019, firstly for elections where the governing party changed and secondly when they didn’t. As you would expect, governments that are going to get re-elected tend to poll higher then those that are going to lose. However, it is not that different and the long […]
- [Geographic Variation](https://electiondatavault.co.uk/charts/variation-in-vote-change/): Geographic Variation in Vote Change The headline changes in share of the vote mask a substantial amount of variation between constituencies. This is one of the challenges of forecasting elections based on polls. In 2015, for example, the Conservatives national share of the vote rose by 0.75 percentage points. However, their vote share actually went down in 240 seats, including five were it fell by more than 10 points. Meanwhile, their vote share rose by more than 4 points in 145 seats. The dispersion of vote share increases has a profound impact on the seats won. More votes do not […]
- [Wales](https://electiondatavault.co.uk/charts/regional-analysis/wales/): Wales The recent political history of Wales is dominated by the Labour party. Since 1955 they have always held an absolute majority of seats in Wales. At their weakest, they won 38% of the vote and 20 seats in 1983. At their strongest they won 60% of the vote and 32 seats in 1966. Labour’s strength lies in the densely populated south of Wales. In the more rural centre and north of the country, the Conservatives and Plaid Cymru are the main electoral contenders. The fortunes of the Welsh Conservatives have swung with their UK wide success. When in government, […]
- [Forecast Results](https://electiondatavault.co.uk/handicapping/forecast/): Forecast Predictions Our forecast uses the polls and notional results for the 2019 general election to predict the outcome in each of the 650 constituencies at the next election. It is exactly the same as the nowcast, but before simulating the election it tries to estimate how the polls will change between now and the election. It is built on the assumption that polls are impossible to predict and that each party’s vote share may go up or down before the election The forecast is our prefered model for predicting the outcome of the election as it takes account of […]
- [Nowcast Results](https://electiondatavault.co.uk/handicapping/nowcast/): Nowcast Predictions Our nowcast takes the latest polls and simulates the election as if it were tomorrow. It takes account of potential errors in the polls and variation in swing across the country. It makes no attempt to estimate candidate effects (such as incumbency or scandal). The nowcast tries to answer the question: “If the polls do not change before the election, what would be the result?” We classify seats in to four categories: Battlegrounds The battlegrounds in an election are defined by the extent of the swing between the parties. To begin with we can identify where the competitive […]
- [Election Model](https://electiondatavault.co.uk/handicapping/): Election Model We have built an election forecasting model for the next UK general election. It comes in two versions: Both models simulate the election 10 000 times to give the conclusions that are presented here. Our approach is ‘polls only’, we do not add any additional subjective factors to our model as we think this is as likely as not to introduce bias. We think that the forecast gives the best sense of what will happen but the nowcast is useful for considering potential outcomes. In the below tables we group seats in to four categories, from safest to […]
- [Polling Bias](https://electiondatavault.co.uk/charts/polling-bias/): Polling Bias All political polling is incorrect – the final result is different from that predicted in the poll. To avoid some of these errors we aggregate and average polls (see our polling index). However, the polls collectively ultimately display biases – they understate or overstate the support of each party. This statistical bias does not mean that pollsters are deliberately changing their results to benefit one team or another. Pollsters have a clear interest in being accurate. Instead, it means that pollsters asked the wrong people, asked the wrong questions or got the wrong answers. Political polling is very […]
- [Scotland](https://electiondatavault.co.uk/charts/regional-analysis/scotland/): Scotland Scotland has had one of the most interesting recent electoral histories of any part of the UK. In the 1950s it looked like much of the rest of the UK. Rural areas voted Conservative and urban areas Labour. Glasgow and its environs sent a huge band of Labour MPs to Westminster. The north east, Perthshire, Stirlingshire and the affluent areas around Edinburgh did the same for the Tories. The highlands and northern isles also had a strong liberal tradition. In 1955 Labour won 34 seats in Scotland, the Conservatives 36 and the Liberals 1. The story of the 60 […]
- [Yorkshire and the Humber](https://electiondatavault.co.uk/charts/regional-analysis/yorkshire-and-the-humber/): Yorkshire and the Humber Yorkshire and the Humber includes the four ridings of Yorkshire plus two parts of Lincolnshire on the south side of Humber estuary. The four ridings have quite distinct political leanings. The south and west are densely populated and lean left whilst the north is more rural and Conservative leaning and the east a mixture of the two. South Yorkshire is the most left leaning part of the region. Since 1955 it has always returned at least 11 Labour MPs and no more than three Tories. In fact, three Tory MPs were elected in 2019 following a […]
- [West Midlands](https://electiondatavault.co.uk/charts/regional-analysis/west-midlands/): West Midlands The West Midlands Region consists of the counties of Herefordshire, Shropshire, Staffordshire, Warwickshire, West Midlands and Worcestershire (we will refer to the county of West Midlands as Greater Birmingham to avoid confusion with the region). Politically it has three distinct parts, central Birmingham, the close suburbs and Coventry (which are very red), the outer suburbs of Greater Birmingham and nearby towns (which are very competitive) and the rural counties that surround Greater Birmingham (which are very blue). The rural parts of the West Midlands are very blue. Labour won just one seat in Herefordshire, Shropshire, Staffordshire, Warwickshire, and […]
- [South West England](https://electiondatavault.co.uk/charts/regional-analysis/south-west-england/): South West England South West England consists of the City of Bristol and the counties of Cornwall, Dorset, Devon, Gloucestershire, Somerset and Wiltshire. Bristol, like most big cities is to the left of the country but the rest of the region is well to the right. In 2019, the six counties were all at least ten points more blue then the country. The South West returned 48 Conservative MPs that year, which is close to their 2015 peak of 51. Save for the three Blair victories (1997, 2001 and 2005), the region has returned at least 35 Conservatives at every […]
- [South East England](https://electiondatavault.co.uk/charts/regional-analysis/south-east-england/): South East England South East England consists of the counties of Berkshire, Buckinghamshire, Hampshire, the Isle of Wight, Kent, Oxfordshire, Surrey and Sussex. It is solidly to the right of the country as a whole, in fact, all eight counties in the region voted more strongly for the Conservatives than the UK as whole in the 2019 election. This is pattern that has held since at least 1955. The counties themselves do vary from the very blue (Kent, Hampshire, the Isle of Wight and West Sussex) to light blue East Sussex and Oxfordshire. Since 1955, the region has never had […]
- [London](https://electiondatavault.co.uk/charts/regional-analysis/london/): London The capital is composed of 32 boroughs and its political geography is largely a picture of a red core surrounded by a blue (and sometimes orange) ring. Inner London boroughs tend to vote strongly for Labour, whilst the outer suburbs tend to be a better hunting ground for Tories. Tory prime minsters, Margeret Thatcher (Finchley, LON) and Boris Johnson (Uxbridge and South Ruislip) both represented Outer London suburban seats. Meanwhile, Labour prime minister Clement Atlee (Limehouse then Walthamstow West, LON) represented two Inner London seats. Although London has been well to the left of the country as a whole […]
- [North West England](https://electiondatavault.co.uk/charts/regional-analysis/north-west-england/): North West England North West England consists of the counties of Cumbria, Cheshire, Greater Manchester, Lancashire and Merseyside. Politically, it sits slightly to the left of the UK as a whole; although there is a substantial difference between voting patterns in the two big urban counties and the rest of the region. Merseyside consistently has the highest Labour vote share of any county in England, Greater Manchester is not far behind. The rest of the region leans to the right of the UK. Since 1955, North West England has generally swung with the nation. In the late 50’s and early […]
- [North East England](https://electiondatavault.co.uk/charts/regional-analysis/north-east-england/): North East England North East England consists of the counties of Durham, Northumberland and Tyne & Wear . Politically it is solidly to the left of the country, Tyne & Wear has not returned a Tory MP since 1992. The more affluent rural parts of the region do regularly elect a handful of Conservatives. The dominance of Labour has been pretty consistent since 1955, the region has not moved with the national trends. The peak in the Tory vote was in 1959 when they won 41% and 9 MPs. From that time until the end of the century their vote […]
- [East of England](https://electiondatavault.co.uk/charts/regional-analysis/east-of-england/): East of England The East of England consists of the counties of Bedfordshire, Cambridgeshire, Essex, Hertfordshire, Norfolk and Suffolk. Politically it is solidly to the right of the country, it consistently returns large numbers of Conservative MPs. However it contains many marginal constituencies that tend to swing between governing parties. This is seen clearly during the 1960’s and 70’s, when Labour won a majority in 1966 they had 15 MPs in the East of England, this dropped to 4 when Heath won his majority in 1970. However, in the October 1974 election Labour were back in government and had 13 […]
- [East Midlands](https://electiondatavault.co.uk/charts/regional-analysis/east-midlands/): East Midlands The East Midlands consists of the counties of Derbyshire, Leicestershire, Lincolnshire Northamptonshire, Nottinghamshire, and Rutland. In electoral terms, it contains one of the most conservative counties in the country (Lincolnshire) as well as traditionally Labour cities of Derby, Nottingham and Leicester. Over the last half century it has followed the trends of the nation. From the mid-1960s it gradually shifted rightwards, this peaked in 1983 when the region returned 34 Conservative MPs to just 8 Labour members. Although some of this is explained by the non-Tory vote was split between Labour, the Liberals and the SDP. From 1983 […]
- [General Election Results](https://electiondatavault.co.uk/tables/election-results/general-election-results/): General Election Results
- [Regional Analysis](https://electiondatavault.co.uk/charts/regional-analysis/): Analysis of General Election Voting by Region and Nation Share of the Vote Won in the 2019 General Election by Region and Nation Seats Won in the 2019 General Election by Region and Nation Share of Seats Won in the 2019 General Election by Region and Nation Change in Votes and Seats by Region 2017-19
- [Election Results](https://electiondatavault.co.uk/charts/election-results/): General Election Results Below are the headline results of every general election since 1955. Full results can be found in our election results tables. Share of the Vote Won in General Elections 1955-2024 Seats Won in General Elections 1955-2024 Local Government Composition Below are the headline compositions of every local council in England, Wales and Scotland since 1973. The full dataset (including data for Northern Ireland since 1997) can be found in our local government composition table.. Local Council Seats Held 1973-2023 Local Council Control 1973-2023
- [Unemployment](https://electiondatavault.co.uk/tables/economic-measures/unemployment/): Unemployment Annual Measure Monthly Measure Unemployment Rate = percentate of working age adutlts who are currently looking for work
- [Inflation](https://electiondatavault.co.uk/tables/economic-measures/inflation/): Inflation CPI inflation = average annual percentage point increase in prices as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI)
- [GDP](https://electiondatavault.co.uk/tables/economic-measures/gdp/): Gross Domestic Product (GDP) GDP = Gross Domestic Product at market prices (chained volume index)
- [Economic Measures](https://electiondatavault.co.uk/tables/economic-measures/): Economic Measures
- [Geography](https://electiondatavault.co.uk/tables/geography/): Geography
- [Polling](https://electiondatavault.co.uk/tables/polling/): Polling
- [Election Results](https://electiondatavault.co.uk/tables/election-results/): Election Results
- [County to Region](https://electiondatavault.co.uk/tables/geography/county-to-region-lookup/): Ceremonial County to Region Lookup
- [Constituency to County](https://electiondatavault.co.uk/tables/geography/constituency-to-county/): Constituency to Ceremonial County Lookup
- [Constituencies](https://electiondatavault.co.uk/tables/geography/constituencies/): Constituencies Used at Each General Election 1955-present
- [Polling Average](https://electiondatavault.co.uk/tables/polling/polling-average/): Polling Average for UK General Election Voting Intention Our polling average blends together all publicly available polls and weights them based on the reliability of the pollster (see our pollster ratings). They are smoothed using a 14 day moving average. Polls commissioned by political groups are weighted down and those commissioned by political parties are excluded. Our polling database goes back to 1943, although the frequency of polls has grown greatly over time.
- [Local Government Composition](https://electiondatavault.co.uk/tables/election-results/local-government-composition/): Local Government Composition
- [By-Elections Results](https://electiondatavault.co.uk/tables/election-results/by-elections-results/): By-Elections Results
- [MPs Elected](https://electiondatavault.co.uk/tables/election-results/mps-elected-at-each-general-election/): MPs Elected at Each General Election
- [Contact](https://electiondatavault.co.uk/contact/): Contact Us We are always happy to receive feedback. If you have spotted any errors or omissions in our data or analysis then please get in touch. We are also on the look out for new data sources to expand the data we hold. To contact us, please email contact@electiondatavault.co.uk or use the contact form below.
- [Pollster Ratings](https://electiondatavault.co.uk/tables/polling/pollster-ratings/): Pollster Ratings Our pollster ratings are meant as a guide to recent performance of pollsters in UK general election polls. They are based on three components: accuracy, longevity and membership of the British Polling Council. Seventy percent of a pollster’s score comes from their accuracy in predicting the most recent three UK general elections. The measure used is based on the differences between the national share of the vote (for the three largest parties) and the final poll fielded before polling day. A perfect prediction of each of the last three elections would contribute seventy points to a pollster’s score. […]
- [Polling Average 2017-19](https://electiondatavault.co.uk/charts/polling-average/polling-average-2017-19/): Polling Average for UK General Election Voting Intention Our polling average blends together all publicly available polls and weights them based on the reliability of the pollster (see our pollster ratings). They are smoothed using a 14 day moving average. Polls commissioned by political groups are weighted down and those commissioned by political parties are excluded. Our polling database goes back to 1943, although the frequency of polls has grown greatly over time.
- [Polling Average 2015-17](https://electiondatavault.co.uk/charts/polling-average/polling-average-2015-17/): Polling Average for UK General Election Voting Intention Our polling average blends together all publicly available polls and weights them based on the reliability of the pollster (see our pollster ratings). They are smoothed using a 14 day moving average. Polls commissioned by political groups are weighted down and those commissioned by political parties are excluded. Our polling database goes back to 1943, although the frequency of polls has grown greatly over time.
- [Polling Average 2010-15](https://electiondatavault.co.uk/charts/polling-average/polling-average-2010-15/): Polling Average for UK General Election Voting Intention Our polling average blends together all publicly available polls and weights them based on the reliability of the pollster (see our pollster ratings). They are smoothed using a 14 day moving average. Polls commissioned by political groups are weighted down and those commissioned by political parties are excluded. Our polling database goes back to 1943, although the frequency of polls has grown greatly over time.
- [Polling Average 1997-2010](https://electiondatavault.co.uk/charts/polling-average/polling-average-1997-2010/): Polling Average for UK General Election Voting Intention Our polling average blends together all publicly available polls and weights them based on the reliability of the pollster (see our pollster ratings). They are smoothed using a 14 day moving average. Polls commissioned by political groups are weighted down and those commissioned by political parties are excluded. Our polling database goes back to 1943, although the frequency of polls has grown greatly over time.
- [Polling Average 1979-87](https://electiondatavault.co.uk/charts/polling-average/polling-average-1979-87/): Polling Average for UK General Election Voting Intention Our polling average blends together all publicly available polls and weights them based on the reliability of the pollster (see our pollster ratings). They are smoothed using a 14 day moving average. Polls commissioned by political groups are weighted down and those commissioned by political parties are excluded. Our polling database goes back to 1943, although the frequency of polls has grown greatly over time.
- [Polling Average 1943-79](https://electiondatavault.co.uk/charts/polling-average/polling-average-1943-79/): Polling Average for UK General Election Voting Intention Our polling average blends together all publicly available polls and weights them based on the reliability of the pollster (see our pollster ratings). They are smoothed using a 14 day moving average. Polls commissioned by political groups are weighted down and those commissioned by political parties are excluded. Our polling database goes back to 1943, although the frequency of polls has grown greatly over time.
- [Polling Average](https://electiondatavault.co.uk/charts/polling-average/): Polling Average for UK General Election Voting Intention Our polling average blends together all publicly available polls and weights them based on the reliability of the pollster (see our pollster ratings). They are smoothed using a 14 day moving average. Polls commissioned by political groups are weighted down and those commissioned by political parties are excluded. Polling for the next General Election Historic Polling Our polling database goes back to 1943, although the frequency of polls has grown greatly over time.
- [Visuals](https://electiondatavault.co.uk/charts/): Visuals Election Model General Election Candidates Polling Average Polling Accuracy Headline Results Regional Analysis
- [Data](https://electiondatavault.co.uk/tables/): Tables Get all of the raw data that powers our visualisations. Election Results Polling Geography Economic Measures
- [Voting Intention Polling](https://electiondatavault.co.uk/tables/polling/vi-polls/): All Voting Intention Polls
- [GE Constituency Results](https://electiondatavault.co.uk/tables/election-results/ge-constituency-results/): General Election Constituency Results
- [About](https://electiondatavault.co.uk/about/): About the UK Election Data Vault The Project The UK Election Data Vault is a non-profit initiative to bring together robust and reliable data on elections to the UK House of Commons. The project was launched in 2023 but the vault itself reflects many years of planning and development. The vault contains data on election results, polling, political geography and macroeconomic measures. The data itself is held in a relational database that is designed to ensure comparability between all the different types of data. All of the data you see on the site is drawn directly from our database. The […]


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